Right, I have got around to finishing the Diary, as below…(results re-cap/eye-catchers/micro angle)
Now onto the trends…
Proud Gamble – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) WON 5/1>4/1 (5s around generally for an age,the recorded price)
I will keep this fairly short…
He will win…
Haha, only joking. I think 5s underestimates his chance here a bit and due to that price I am happy to have one more go on him. It was good ground here but there has since been some rain. However, I think it may be better ground than LTO. The winner that day, who re-opposes here, always had track position on him and was always 4L or so in front, esp entering the final 3rd. He could just never close the gap. Now, I put that down to getting stuck in the mud, unable to quicken. I could have that wrong, it could well be that he needs further and/or a much stiffer test of stamina at a different track. But, he is gaining experience with every run, and ‘in theory’ due to the weight, he should get a bit close. I wont be dogmatic about that theory though as I am not a weights and measures punter on the whole, esp when looking at collateral form- the winner could well have more to come also, and as such that weight turnaround means sod all. I do hope they ride him closer to the pace and I still think there is some promise. Anyway, at 5s, more than happy to have one more go, for 1 point only.
The fav clearly has a chance again. He is lazy, hence the headgear and there is a chance, maybe small, that he doesnt react to it a third time and says enough is enough. If he doesnt he may well win again. I would struggle to make a case, at the odds, for much else in here and am happy for them to prove me wrong. Bar those two there isnt really anything else I want to be on.
Having said that, if the rain had stayed away, I would have had a dart on Tears From Heaven – he needs/wants good ground – that’s what his form indicates, and he just doesnt like anything with cut in. If he finds plenty of good patches he may even out-run his odds today! But, I will keep an eye on him as when it is good, in a C5 chase, he will suddenly bounce back to form at a decent price I suspect.
Somerset Lias – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) UP 6/1>7/2 –beating the market the only positive,but key to long term success as we know! Should have paid closer attention to the weather – annoying in a slog when the only proven slogger in the field goes un-backed,and when you predict they will just keep going. Never mind, cant be greedy now.
The way in for this horse is simply the track and a much stiffer test of stamina. That is what I am clinging on to here and in this type of race I thought 6s was more than fair. He has been nothing but consistent and despite being an 18 race maiden (gulp!) he always looks to try to my eye. He just looks to have been a bit outpaced at times around the likes of Wincanton and Taunton, the latter track especially. This is a very different test. It is no surprise to me that some of his better placed form has been at Exeter, which its undulations and slightly more galloping nature. And, its as simple as that really. His speed figure is decent from the ones I use (in Geegez Gold Racecards, as a guide) and he is Top 3 rated in HRB, which is another ‘ratings’ guide that I glance at – given that their top 3 rated in handicap chases win about 50-55% of races, which is a good starting point. We shall see, but I suspect he may relish this hill and am willing to pay to find out.
Of the rest. Well it isnt a very good race and those horses with winning form have been winning poor races and have something to prove. This is a different test for Bebinn, she is 0/6 at the track, 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases, so over a similar trip, so has that to prove. Badger Wood would have a chance if he doesnt throw it away with his jumping to the left. He may struggle to get away with that here – albeit if he does that makes him more appealing when he does go LH. Emma Soda will keep plugging on WON– and that may be enough- but is 11yo now and had a hard race to my eye only 12 days ago – that could leave its mark. The rest have a bit to prove now.
PACE…was interesting and should help the selection – if my theory about wanting a truer test is correct. LHL/Badger Wood/Emma Soda, and sometimes Our Island all like to get on with it, which could set it up for a close. I do hope they dont let Tom Cannon dictate on Badger Wood mind as that would improve his chance, if jumping straighter. But he is 7/2, not 6/1.
So, hopefully we get a run for our money from this one. Time will tell but something to keep us entertained on a mid-week afternoon.
That is all for ‘tips’.
2.50 Muss – ItsTimeForAPint (any odds) PU 10/1
4.00 Muss – Jonny Delta 2nd 8/1 /Silver Duke Up 9/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.25 Towc – Tommy The Rascal – 20/1 – 25/1 – with 4 places to play with here this could be a fun EW bet. The trainer is 2/4,2 places with handicap hurdle debutants in the last year and indications are that this could be a new tactic – well she was 0/8, 1 place with the same type of runner in the year before that. It may not of course and just be one of those things. She is 0/1, 1 place at the track with such runners in the last 5 years, with the place profit 5.6 points, suggesting that it was a decent price. This one is very stoutly bred and should really appreciate this trip, at this track. I will put the PU down to heavy ground LTO, albeit even on better ground he probably would have come home in his own time. I like this kind of ‘iffy’ break with this type of horse. Suggests they may have done something (wind) and/or put quite a bit of work into him, to get him as fit as they can. Not that they didnt for his novice runs of course – ahem!!! He also gets some cheekpieces. So, he is interesting. The market may guide and of course he simply may not be very good and everything I have just written is irrelevant! We shall see.
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