Members Report: 17/02/16 (COMPLETE)

Right, I have got around to finishing the Diary, as below…(results re-cap/eye-catchers/micro angle)

WEEKLY DIARY HERE>>>

Now onto the trends…

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TIPS

1.40 Muss 

Proud Gamble – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) WON 5/1>4/1 (5s around generally for an age,the recorded price)

I will keep this fairly short…

He will win…

Haha, only joking. I think 5s underestimates his chance here a bit and due to that price I am happy to have one more go on him. It was good ground here but there has since been some rain. However, I think it may be better ground than LTO. The winner that day, who re-opposes here, always had track position on him and was always 4L or so in front, esp entering the final 3rd. He could just never close the gap. Now, I put that down to getting stuck in the mud, unable to quicken. I could have that wrong, it could well be that he needs further and/or a much stiffer test of stamina at a different track. But, he is gaining experience with every run, and ‘in theory’ due to the weight, he should get a bit close. I wont be dogmatic about that theory though as I am not a weights and measures punter on the whole, esp when looking at collateral form-  the winner could well have more to come also, and as such that weight turnaround means sod all. I do hope they ride him closer to the pace and I still think there is some promise. Anyway, at 5s, more than happy to have one more go, for 1 point only. 

The fav clearly has a chance again. He is lazy, hence the headgear and there is a chance, maybe small, that he doesnt react to it a third time and says enough is enough. If he doesnt he may well win again. I would struggle to make a case, at the odds, for much else in here and am happy for them to prove me wrong. Bar those two there isnt really anything else I want to be on. 

Having said that, if the rain had stayed away, I would have had a dart on Tears From Heaven – he needs/wants good ground – that’s what his form indicates, and he just doesnt like anything with cut in. If he finds plenty of good patches he may even out-run his odds today! But, I will keep an eye on him as when it is good, in a C5 chase, he will suddenly bounce back to form at a decent price I suspect. 

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3.00 Towc

Somerset Lias – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) UP 6/1>7/2  –beating the market the only positive,but key to long term success as we know! Should have paid closer attention to the weather – annoying in a slog when the only proven slogger in the field goes un-backed,and when you predict they will just keep going. Never mind, cant be greedy now. 

The way in for this horse is simply the track and a much stiffer test of stamina. That is what I am clinging on to here and in this type of race I thought 6s was more than fair. He has been nothing but consistent and despite being an 18 race maiden (gulp!) he always looks to try to my eye. He just looks to have been a bit outpaced at times around the likes of Wincanton and Taunton, the latter track especially. This is a very different test. It is no surprise to me that some of his better placed form has been at Exeter, which its undulations and slightly more galloping nature. And, its as simple as that really. His speed figure is decent from the ones I use (in Geegez Gold Racecards, as a guide) and he is Top 3 rated in HRB, which is another ‘ratings’ guide that I glance at – given that their top 3 rated in handicap chases win about 50-55% of races, which is a good starting point. We shall see, but I suspect he may relish this hill and am willing to pay to find out. 

Of the rest. Well it isnt a very good race and those horses with winning form have been winning poor races and have something to prove. This is a different test for Bebinn, she is 0/6 at the track, 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases, so over a similar trip, so has that to prove. Badger Wood would have a chance if he doesnt throw it away with his jumping to the left. He may struggle to get away with that here – albeit if he does that makes him more appealing when he does go LH. Emma Soda will keep plugging on WON– and that may be enough- but is 11yo now and had a hard race to my eye only 12 days ago – that could leave its mark. The rest have a bit to prove now. 

PACE…was interesting and should help the selection – if my theory about wanting a truer test is correct. LHL/Badger Wood/Emma Soda, and sometimes Our Island all like to get on with it, which could set it up for a close. I do hope they dont let Tom Cannon dictate on Badger Wood mind as that would improve his chance, if jumping straighter. But he is 7/2, not 6/1. 

So, hopefully we get a run for our money from this one. Time will tell but something to keep us entertained on a mid-week afternoon. 

Good Luck

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That is all for ‘tips’. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainers

2.50 Muss – ItsTimeForAPint (any odds) PU 10/1

4.00 Muss – Jonny Delta 2nd 8/1 /Silver Duke Up 9/2

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

2.25 Towc – Tommy The Rascal – 20/1 – 25/1 – with 4 places to play with here this could be a fun EW bet. The trainer is 2/4,2 places with handicap hurdle debutants in the last year and indications are that this could be a new tactic – well she was 0/8, 1 place with the same type of runner in the year before that. It may not of course and just be one of those things. She is 0/1, 1 place at the track with such runners in the last 5 years, with the place profit 5.6 points, suggesting that it was a decent price. This one is very stoutly bred and should really appreciate this trip, at this track. I will put the PU down to heavy ground LTO, albeit even on better ground he probably would have come home in his own time. I like this kind of ‘iffy’ break with this type of horse. Suggests they may have done something (wind) and/or put quite a bit of work into him, to get him as fit as they can. Not that they didnt for his novice runs of course – ahem!!! He also gets some cheekpieces. So, he is interesting. The market may guide and of course he simply may not be very good and everything I have just written is irrelevant! We shall see. 

 

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CONTACTING ME….just to say that the contact form on this blog doesnt really work so apologies about that. I will try and get it fixed at some point, when the blog is redesigned and made more user friendly in places. The best bet is to either leave a comment or email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … 

There can be problems with certain email addresses and my email system. So if you have joined the ‘donations club’ and haven’t received a welcome email, including the complimentary Cheltenham Guide, please email me and I wil sort it out. 

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THANKS…Just a quick word of thanks to all of you who have joined the ‘donations club’ and who continue to donate on an ad hoc basis. You are helping ensure that I can continue to keep the blog at the level it is now, while also looking to improvements in the future (a Forum maybe) I think we are all part of something special here, a new, exciting and fair way of engaging with this great sport of ours. Long may it continue. 

I know some of you have only recently started reading. Hopefully you like what you find and in future you may ‘join the club’ of donators, either monthly or ad hoc – if you so value any aspect of your engagement with it, which of course you may not. 

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I have just released my Cheltenham Stats/Trends Guide and you can find out more about it, and grab a copy if you wish, below…

GET YOUR CHELTENHAM GUIDE HERE>>>

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You Can Join My Weekly/Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below

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*** Anyone who signs up to one of the links above will receive my Cheltenham Stats Guide for free. (worth £17+ VAT ) You will also be added into an email list that I will use to send you other exclusive reports from time to time, that I would normally charge for etc. That is just a thank you for anyone who makes that donations commitment. I know most of you will probably prefer to chip in on an an hoc basis, and that is brilliant, but the options are there if you wish.*** 

ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to send you…

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

    1. Haha, I don’t think there will be room unfortunately!! Plenty of good karma in that city. All winners this weekend/Monday found and tipped there, as was good old Highland Lodge!

  1. Mrs Albion, You’ve Got a Lovely Daughter.
    Adrian Henri, poet and painter, dedicated the above poem about his town to Allen Ginsberg, so with it I wish you happiness in the ‘pool.
    Adrian was one of the three Liverpool poets with Roger McGough and Brian Patten back in the sixties.

  2. morning ,regarding free cheltenham guide,dont think it,s unreasonable,if someone donates ,but dosent want to sign up on a weekly ,monthly,etc basis ,that they can be included ,ive sent £8 in last few days but im excluded,just a thought keep up the good work.

    1. hi Michael, thanks for your comment and I appreciate where you are coming from, albeit I disagree. It is a tricky one. The donations model allows a mixed approach and the complimentary guide and future guides is for those who make a longer term commitment, but at the same time I have priced the actual guide up, in my opinion, at a level which would be reasonable regardless of the blog, and the main reason for why people donate.

      I dont know your personal situation, how much you bet, and/or if you even back any of my tips. But, just 50p per point in 2016 would see you in profit of over £50 – in that context even, investing in the guide as a stand alone piece isnt too much to ask I dont think. If you have been betting the tips to more than this per point, £5 say, then the case could be even stronger.

      You do have options..you just buy the guide and withdraw/refuse to make any future donations up until the value of that guide.

      I also dont know when you started reading, and I really do appreciate your ad hoc donation to date. But I cannot justify giving that guide away to all those who donate on an ad hoc basis. Of course, your £8 donation is only £4 away from a monthly donation – which you can stop anytime. So, you could sign up for monthly donations, get the guide, and then stop your donation. For example. Albeit I wouldnt say that was ‘cricket’, so to speak.

      I need a mixed model, to be blunt. If I can predict future income it allows the blog to carry on and improve, for me to invest with confidence in a re-design, new features, guest writers etc. The blog/reports is all I do, and I rarely spend less than 10 hours a day looking at racing etc, all aimed at providing you all with useful info. Without it, I would have to pay-wall the blog and it wouldnt be free at the point of use for everyone, which isnt something I now really ever want to consider again.

      So, I know that answer wont please you. I appreciate your commitment, readership and the fact you dont want to donate monthly. But, I would hope when looking at the whole you can see my point of view also.
      All the best
      Josh
      p.s hopefully one of today’s tips can pay for the guide! 🙂

    1. Yep, still worth a go at 5s I think. One more hurrah! And if not today I wont back him at that track again I dont think, could well want further, or simply doesnt ‘have it’ to win a race.

  3. I cant remember if you had a Tom George/Paddy Brennan angle??…if so thoughts about Definitely Better in the 3.25 at Musselburgh….price looks quite attractive

    1. hi Ian, yes I think I have a couple knocking about but they are Handicap Chase related – that race is a hurdle and I have nothing for them on that front. Havent looked at the race and wont put you off him! George doesnt send many up there, 3/7 last 5 years I believe having had a quick glance.

  4. Me having a fun EW bet [Sporting Bet / Lads & Skybet 33/1 rest <<] Jockey is 1 from 4 with trainer & good in big fields – Gud Day [2.25 Tow] has won 1/39 hurdle races but it was a 16 runner C5 h'cap when he was rated 104 as a novice – here is off a new low of 84 back in a big field first time for a while with overall best cdg (crse/dist/going) figs & warrants a little go imho

  5. Hi Josh, oddly enough I was talking to a cousin last night and she mentioned that her husband’s uncle owns Tommy the Rascal. They think quite a lot of him but don’t know how he will cope in the conditions/field today.

    I am sure that the riding instructions will be something like do your best and if he is in with a chance go for it, if not don’t give him a hard time/ruin his handicap mark.

    I think they are quite happy with his mark. Well spotted!

  6. hi josh i told you that you move the market tommy in to tens dont know what time you put it up at started to move on exchanges between 9-10

    1. Yep, lack of run cost second maybe – he needs a better track and further I think – some headgear may not go amiss either, Cheekpieces maybe. Was hoping he would do just that, and pleased I read the fav right – a moody type!

  7. Well done Josh….yet another winner….don’t know about you being in the top 2% of punters (ones that make a profit over time)…more like the top 0.2% of punters. At this rate you may become a victim of your own success….what I mean is that the bookies stop taking your bets because you win far too much for their liking.

    Once again Josh….phenomenal punting!

    1. ha, well I am at that stage with SkyBet/Coral/Betfred but more through my own stupidity – need to be more clever with punting – but as yet I havent resorted to any accounts under other people’s names! Am still small in terms of staking. I think two good rules are dont bet each way too often, that makes them suspicious. Spread bets around and spend a bit on the casino games every now and then. I should probably use BFSP so some of the bigger Sat bets – but then you have to take a chance that they wont shorten, and I always bet because I think a horse is overpriced!

      1. The irony is that all the leading bookmakers are quite happy for you to gamble as much as you want on FOBT in their shops – because they coin in the cash – but hate consistently winning punters on whatever sport (s) they succeed in.

    1. Yep, that price was around everywhere for a rather long time. Showed some guts and clearly has stamina – very good ride also. Not strongest of races mind. Went off a shorter price too, which is always the intention!

  8. Well done Josh away from home this week just managed to fire the tablet up in time to read your blog,got onto Proud Gamble at 9/2.what was it’s best price.Cheers BoB

      1. 6s at Paddys last night, Josh, when you put the systems up…but waited for the go-ahead this morning. Not complaining, mind haha.
        I was the guy who said I’d contribute monthly after totalling (my) points, but I’ve just signed up for the £12 monthly option. Seems churlish not to. May have to upgrade soon!
        Cheers,
        Paul

        1. Ah was it, yes having mentioned him I didnt look at market that closely, or back him at that price, thankfully it held in the morning.

          Very kind and generous of you. Of course, after a particular good month/big win nothing is stopping you chipping in a bit more as hoc! 🙂

  9. Great work again Josh

    Your approach is very refreshing.Given your recent successes I think that the majority of so called tipsters in your position would now be asking for £40/£50 a month for their ‘service’. Your voluntary approach to paying for your information is great and I for one have warmed to you because of it.

    1. Cheers Andy. Well, I trust you all and as I say, it allows people of all levels to get involved, have some fun and hopefully build up betting banks. And, losers will come, at some point! this is not sustainable 🙂 I wouldnt feel comfortable charging that amount and I would personally never pay that for other people’s info – at that level you have to betting at least £20 per point to make it worth it, if not more. Albeit, there are some good services that charge that amount and have decent track record – but I cant think many would be comfortable at that level.

      Hopefully everyone just keeps chipping in, and even monthly donators may top up after a particularly big win (not today!)/ good month! And the blog is more than ‘tips’, its a portfolio, an experience, a mix. etc

  10. dont need to big punter josh 5/10 once you show profit your gone track tour ip address sky bet closed me on loosing acc once you beat sp

    1. Yep agree with that. Coral – i was about £210 up over a 5 month period i think – and restricted. They are buggers. Bet365/BV/PP/WH havent done me yet although I am waiting with baited breath as they have taken most of my hits recently! need to start spreading it. I also dont withdraw really, think that may help!

    1. Yep, a shame for my visual enjoyment/spectacle. Cant say I bet AP, but can attempt to feel your pain! Suppose not many/any were non runner no bet?

      1. Not having a dig at any one but I simply don’t get or comprehend Ante Post betting, we can’t assess Going on the morning of racing most days, let alone Trainer from so far out and so many other imponderables, imho it is just bookie fodder

        1. yep tend to agree, albeit sometimes value strikes you in face, and for those who like backing Mullins in non-handicap races etc, can see why you would multiple them up for fun AP. Coneygree a good example last year, think up to xmas he was 33s, if not shortly after. In hindsight that was a good bet, albeit if there were no rain, and it was fast ground, it probably wasnt!!

  11. no wont help josh they even share info thank god for exchanges there is a guy trying to fight them in parly. right up your street justiceforpunters.org everybody should read this LOW LIFE.

  12. Josh
    Yet another well done. You get a good strike rate AND decent prices so very good going.
    I thought Liam Heard didn’t make any effort at all until +Somerset Lias was well beaten, even then the urging was minimal.
    Keep this one for another day. You don’t seem to comment much regarding jockeys when making your selections.
    Thanks again
    Eric

    1. hi Eric… I dont have any issues, I suspect he was urging but with all that rain it was very testing and he has ridden him plenty and would know if nothing there. The money suggests they may have expected better – if indeed any of it was theirs. The fact Emma Soda. a 29f mud lover won, says everything. If he didnt feel much and had really got after him, he could have been ruined for a year/few months. I expected better clearly and thought a slog may suit (albeit maybe not that heavy), but got that wrong.

      No, I don’t care for jockeys much in terms of weighing up a race ‘cold’ (outside of any micro angles etc) I will look to see their record with the trainer, and on the horse, and a glance at the track – but jockey stats can be misleading, not knowing what priced horses they were on, how many novice/maiden hurdlers that may have ridden that were never there to win etc. If a jock is 1/50 or something at a track I will take note – but ultimately it all comes down to price. Take Count Guido on Sat – JJ Slevin was 2/66 or something in hurdles in ireland – but he is a young lad, probably hasnt ridden many with a chance, and well, don’t Mullins/Elliot/De Bromhead win everything in Ireland!! 🙂 NTD is a great judge of young jocks and at 14s that was enough for me.

      I have never let a jockey be a deciding factor in a bet, and never will. Not if I like the price.

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