SAT: BIG RACE TRENDS (complete)

Looks like a decent day’s racing ahead on Saturday and hopefully a few decent bets to be struck. 

We have the Grand National Trial to get stuck into at Haydock and hopefully plenty of them turn up. The trends for that are below and I suppose they are useful to a point. 

For my Daily Punt column I will have a look at the 3.15 Haydock which will hopefully be a big field 3m handicap hurdle, with some decent odds around. We shall see. 

There is also the 2.25 Ascot which could be a betting race. However there have only been 5 renewals so it is limited from a stats perspective, albeit I will have a glance. 

For now, the Grand National Trial…

***

Haydock: Grand National Trial

18 renewals since 1997

240 runners, 57 placed horses

1 down as having ‘no run’ – suggesting it had no UK/Irish form.

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

14/17 Top 3 LTO

  • 14/122 runners, 37 places…82% winners (of those ‘with run’)…51% runners…65% places
  • Fell: 0/5, 0 places
  • PU: 1/27, 5 places
  • UR: 1/8, 2 places

Horse Age

  • 18/18 aged 7-11
    • 6yo: 0/3, 0 places
    • 12yo+ : 0/21, 3 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing significant although oddly..
    • 16-30 days: 0/68, 13 places (just one of those things?)
      • 1-15 days for example: 4/32, 9 places
      • 31-60 days: 10/109, 30 places

Horse Weight

  • 11-12: 3/10, 5 places
  • 10-00: 5/29, 8 places

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing significant

Season Runs

  • Nothing of note

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • Ran over 4m4fpreviously (grand national): 0/47, 8 places

Odds

  • 18/18 20/1 or under SP
    • 22/1+ : 0/54, 6 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miccellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 6/56, 11 places
  • IRE: 8/128, 27 places
  • FR: 4/52, 18 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 1-7: 0/19, 1 place
  • 32+ : 0/27, 4 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 21+ handicap runs: 0/27, 3 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 15+ chase runs: 1/74, 15 places…6% winners…31% runners…26% places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 17/17 had won at least once on last 6 starts
    • Had Not: 0/45, 9 places
    • 16/17 Had won at least once on last 4 starts

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 17/17 had placed at least once on last 3 starts
    • Had Not: 0/38, 4 places

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (NH Race Type)

  • 5+ chase wins: 0/42, 8 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 4+ handicap chase wins: 0/34, 7 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 17/17 had finished in Top 2 on at least once of last three starts
    • Had Not: 0/69, 9 places

Best In Five Runs

  • 16/17 had won at least once in last 5 starts
    • 2nd : 1/47, 10 places
    • 3rd or worse: 0/33, 6 places

Highest Class Win

  • Previous G1 winners: 0/14, 3 places

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 9+ : 0/45, 11 places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Hurdle LTO: 0/14, 2 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • G1 LTO: 0/7, 0 places

(LR) Track

  • Chepstow: 5/36, 9 places
  • Ayr: 2/7, 2 places
  • Weth: 2/9, 2 places
  • 1 win each: Plumton/Newcast/Warw (1/30,11 places)/Aint/Newb/Chelt/Kelso/Hayd (1/43, 7 places)
  • Uttox: 0/16, 0 places
  • Sand: 0/16, 2 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • Miss Lucinda Russel: 3/6, 3 places
  • V Williams: 1/16, 6 places
  • Mrs S Smith: 1/10, 3 places
  • P Nicholls: 1/17, 4 places
  • D Pipe: 0/6, 1 place
  • Jefferson: 0/5, 0 places
  • Hobbs: 0/8, 1 place
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/7, 0 places
  • A King: 0/7, 2 places

 

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • Top 2 on one of last 3 starts
  • Won at least one of last 6 starts, last 4 more positive
  • 8-31 career runs
  • 4 or fewer chase wins
  • (9+ places in chases,includes wins,may be a negative but no. of places is decent, and bar the first of the stats in this profile they are all a tad tentative)

 

Shortlist:

Strict interpretation of that (bar last bullet) I believe leaves: Sego Success/Vieux Lion Rouge/Bishops Road/Bob Ford/Spookydooky/Mountainous/Broadway Buffalo/Sun Cloud/Russe Blanc/Woodford County

It will be interesting which ones turn up, only 2 have jockeys booked .

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. It is such a unique track since they changed the Course configuration and type of Fences to Brush that it is hard to look beyond any Course and Distance winner in the mud…

  2. Hi Josh…great analysis as usual…other stats which maybe useful…

    1) Lto PU 1/27, 5 places. Trend to consider for Gas Line Boy.
    2) Headgear Blinkers 1/36, 9 places. Cheekpieces 0/20, 2 places,Visor 0/11, 2 places and No headgear 17/173, 44 places.
    3) Jockey P Buchanan 8/4, 4 places. Has won on Forest Gunner (Trainer: R Ford), Silver by Nature x2 and Lie Forrit (Trainer: L Russell).
    4) Lto Race Type: Hurdle 0/14,2 places Trend to consider for Broadway Buffalo.
    5) 8 winners have come from the Welsh National since 1992. Mountainous would become only the second winner to follow up in that time. 8 finishes 272152PP (@ Chepstow).

    None of these are key in themselves but could provide pointers regarding a few of the runners as mentioned above.

    1. Hi Martin, great stuff, thanks for this – please do chip in this way every week, much appreciated!
      Yep got the PU stats – and GLB was running well when making a sloppy error after a break LTO – a concern that he wasnt really under any pressure but one for closer inspection if he turns up. I did look at the headgear, didnt put it down and maybe should have – I wouldnt place any significance on those stats – i have been thinking about headgear in big races – and still dont really know what I think – suppose can be a sign of a horse being ungenuine/lazy, and obviously in big races that isnt a great attribute – at Cheltenham say, with 20+ runners in every handicap, restricted vision + being surrounded by many horses, could be stressful/a negative. Anyway, those stats are always of interest.
      Good Welsh National Stats – suspect Mountainous may go very close to becoming the second winner from your list, just about deciding whether 6/1 or so will be value in context of oppo, and Ive yet to look at the horses in much depth.

      Thanks again, all useful stuff.

      1. Hi Josh…thanks for the comments…GBL didn’t pull up he Unseated (was posting very early this morning)…so have amended my notes. A few other stats to throw into the trends pot which are interesting….

        You mentioned: Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

        •Ran over 4m4fpreviously (grand national): 0/47, 8 places

        What’s interesting is that form in other Nationals seems to tie in nicely with this race in than many go on to score a double of sorts winning here . For example Well Refreshed 2013 winner (Won the Sussex National 2013), Giles Cross 2012 winner (second in Welsh National 2011), Miko De Beauchene did the double in 2007/08, Jurancon 2004 winner (Won English Summer National in 2003) and Shotgun Willy 2003 winner (2nd in Scottish National 2002). Southern and Lincoln National winners have also gone onto success in this race. Maybe useful?

        Probably given the trends and likely ground conditions….an inform mud slogger may just be the ticket….and Mountainous does fit that bill….as you’ve alluded to Josh the question is does 6/1 offer a touch of value?

        1. Ah, yep well it does look like a race for the proven slogger/proven national type. I doubt you want to guessing as to whether they will stay and or/like ground, unless you are getting silly odds, 20s+ maybe.
          Yep, well value is always in the eye of the beholder and always must be judged against oppo/race conditions. 6/1 may well be value in that context, esp if you can rule a lot out with major doubts etc. Yet to look/decide. But, for sure, depending on the number of runners I will be backing one at bigger odds (as well as him maybe)

    1. oh damn, indeed. Well, that may be becoming a no bet race, we shall see. Am sure Harry The Viking may win a race like this one day but he is just very slow,one gear, even at this trip. Shame not more line up. Thats racing

      1. I think its safe to assume that many who are not out and out sloggers who have a weight already for the National that looks like getting in don’t want to bottom out their horses on nigh on un-racable ground, especially with more rain coming just 35 days before the big race especially if its going to be held on good to soft going, which is the norm. Of those 8 that remain it would be no surprise to see Bishops Road and Broadway Buffalo pulled and interesting that Mountainous; Broadway; GLB; RDB and HtV have entries in the Eider Chase next weekend….although what the ground will be like there is anyones’ guess with their last 3 NH fixtures (Newcastle) postponed and the track currently a Building site as they work on the AW track

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