BIG RACE PREVIEW
(‘tipped’ up yesterday – Thursday- evening, 5/1 still available with WH as I write – 16.12, 05/02/16)
Ibis Du Rheu – 1 point win – 5/1 (PP – WH – WH are NRNB) UP
I have previewed this for the Daily Punt Blog, you can read all the stats, trends and my reasoning at the link below…
La Reve – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (BV/SJ/Coral/WH) WON 4/1
The stats for this one are only helpful until a point. In a way when I look for a ‘winning profile’ based on the stats I want to be able to exclude runners based on negative stats, as a starting point. Those that carried more than 11-5 or more, after considering jockey claims, are currently 0/43, 7 places in this race. That is 23% of runners, producing 13% of places. So, historically, Seventh Sky, Unioniste and Black Thunder have it to do. But, that will be broken one day no doubt. Other than that there were not many other stats I wanted to get too hung up on.
Le Reve – Well he won this race last year, and while I don’t think there has been a repeat winner of this race, having had a quick flick through past winners I don’t think many have tried. And, as illogical stats/angles in go, that one is near the top!
I was surprised to see a few judges tip this horse up at Doncaster last weekend. They can’t have checked his record going left handed which in his entire career now reads 0/8, 0 places. All evidence suggests he hates going that way round. 0/4, 0 places in handicap chases – whereas right handed that figure is 2/8, 6 places. He doesn’t run many bad races going this way round and a repeat of his penultimate run at Kempton, behind a horse who could be smart and maybe a future Grand National winner – maybe even this year – would see him right in the mix. He is 2/3, 3 places in handicap chases at the track. So, hopefully he is ridden more handily (Skelton is 1/2, 2 places on trainers runners and that could be a relationship that is in its infancy) and gives us a run for our money…
The BLINKERS…are the only niggle. He has run well and done most of his winning in cheekpieces, but you never know how a horse will react to them on the race track first time. They must have schooled them in them, or galloped him at least, and be happy enough. Now, I checked the trainers record with horses wearing blinkers – 2/80. Oh dear. Her record with those in first time blinkers – 0/23, 0 places. Oh dear…BUT…only 7 of those went off at 7/1 or shorter,with many at big odds.
La Reve is by Milan – so I had a dive in to see how his progeny do in first time blinkers – I think there is a bloodline/dna logic that makes this valid research – his runners, in first time Blinkers, 10/1 or shorter…. 45 bets / 12 wins / 20 places, +31 SP. Interesting. You can have that micro angle on me!
So, that tipped the balance. It may well be clear early that I have thrown 1.5 points away, but that headgear, going back RH, and a return to this track could see a return to form. Given the fairly small field and the oppo I think 5s is fair enough and he is the one I want onside. His trainer is also 3/16, 8 places in the last 30 days, 2/10, 5 places last 30 days.
The two Nicholl’s horses have plenty to prove for me at the moment and I just cant have them on their recent profiles/form. Would I be shocked if either won, no. They both have a touch of class and this race is well within reach if putting it all together. They also have the weight stat to overcome. Not for me today. Paul does have a decent record in this race mind. If one was a monster price I would be looking at them for quiet a bit longer, and maybe taking a punt,but happy to leave this time. Black Thunder is the preferred of the two for me. But, he looks like he needs further now, and he can belt a fence. Maybe the smaller field will help and he will be staying on near the end if still in touch.
Summery Justice is getting on a bit now and his best runs recently have come over more testing trips. He may be outpaced here, and that may lead to errors as he tries to close. But, he is in form and you know stamina is no concern. The break of 63 days would be though – a problem? or is this a prep for another tilt at the Eider in a few weeks. Saroque has been stuffed by the selection at this course before and I dont know if he has the class for this. He also has a brave and grueling run from the Welsh National to get over. Not impossible, but enough niggles for me. Seventh Sky could rightly be knackered from recent efforts and I still have doubts about his stamina, especially around here. Top weight as well which will be tough, historically, esp with no claim to help. I cant have Pete the Feat, I just cant. Now 0/8, 2 places C2 and above and he isnt getting any younger. Also now 0/9, 0 places in Feb/march in handicap chases. 0/16, 0 places in all races – he cant like this time of year! That leaves Knock House who is interesting but I am not sure if he is good enough, albeit he is unexposed enough. He has a bit to prove for me and 57 days is an iffy length of time to be off. Maybe waiting for better ground. He may well hit the frame and if I were in saver mode, he would probably be the one.
PACE – Saroque, Pete The Feat and Seventh Sky usually like to get on with things. Hopefully La Reve can track them in behind and it is clear early on that he is travelling well. If so, we should at least have something to cheer near the business end.
3.15 Ffos Las Red Devils Lads – 1 point win – 8/1 (Betfair Sports- they will let me have £3.15 on,generous! / Coral, not BOG yet) 7/1 (BV) 13/2 (bet365) 6/1 (general)
No stats or trends for this race yet, hence it is a ‘tip’ rather than a Big Race Preview.
I will keep this a bit shorter. My notes about this horse say to be interested when he shows up in a smaller field, in a less competitive race. That’s what he gets here. The track, trip and ground pose no problems. Well, he has won in heavy here, but I think heavy varies at this venue and you never know how heavy it really is.
I think he is a bit of a sulker if he cannot dominate – that is what some of his form suggests. In any case, this race will be much easier than the last two and I hope he can dominate from the front. Bob Ford does like to get on with it also and so does Finish The Story, but I think they may both see him off. It could be that he just likes fresh air, and not many horses around him. Either way at 7s, or 8s if you can get it, I was happy to throw a point at him. Not the most confident bet in the world but I found it hard to dismiss that price. He is unexposed and he has ability. He just needs to put it all together, which a smaller field may help him to do, and may help him get into more or a jumping rhythm – if able to go his pace.
I can’t work the yard out at the moment. Many of theirs are running poorly again, and their season has a touch of the ‘Emma Lavelle’s’ about it – i hope that’s not too harsh!
Bob Ford has a chance and won this race last year, where it was 3f further. He wont have any problem in conditions and ran a fine race before untipping in the big one. I just cant touch that price though for a horse with plenty of PUs in his formline. But, he may well be the last one standing. Likewise at the price I cant have Cogry and he has a bit to prove now, albeit unexposed. I struggle to make an overly compelling case for the rest, and many dont have great form in the deep mud. But, it feels like the kind of race where you would be stupid to totally dismiss all of their chances.
That will be it for ‘Big Race Preview’ Races
1.35 Weth – Friendly Royal (any odds) UP 3/1 / Katkeau (any odds) UP 3/1
2.05 Ffos Las – Gevrey Chambertin (any odds) Meeting Abandoned
Saturday TTJs (trainer jockey combos)
1.50 Sand – Bold Henry (14/1<) UP
Harry Fry Mares Micro (10/1< a guide) His have been running ‘in and out’ although bumper winner Wincanton this week.
1.00 Weth – Secret Door 2nd 2/1
2.45 Weth – Bitofapuzzle UP
That is all on the horses front for today.
(‘over the shoulder’ of me in my HorseRaceBase account researching a couple of trainer/jockey combos)
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