Well, those of you ‘old timers’ (a comment on how long you have been reading the blog, not your age!) who have been reading the blog for a while will know I enjoy the winners and the good days, and am very self critical on the bad days. But, they happen, and today’s two bets didn’t run very well! No surprise from Frank The Slink – that run was possible and when he wasnt sent out to lead I was concerned. He was worth a punt at the odds – and at those odds we will get more runs like that than wins, but the profits will speak for themselves. I deal in profits, not winners.
Total Assets – I think I underestimated her size and her ability to carry a big-ish weight, in that ground. She effectively had 12lb more on her back than the last day – 11-4, against 10-2, given her small frame, may be what done for her. It may not have been and she just did not run her race. Anyway, I was due a bad day and there will be plenty more. But, we have built up a decent cushion in the last few weeks.
I would not have backed the winner at the odds given my questions over the trip and his jumping under pressure. But, his win was no shock and he won it very well, jumping well in the main- it was a weak race.
IMPORTANT INFO…If you are new to these pages, or haven’t read about the Members Club, what it is, and how you could/should engage with it, the link below may help…(could also click the Members Club Tab above)
Also includes info on my new approach to funding this blog, and keeping it subscription free..
2.20 2.10! Towcester
Bashford Ben – 1 point win – 3/1 (general) 2nd 9/2 (8l)
Ran a decent race, no real complaints, a run for our money and I definitely would have backed him this morning at that price- if he were not in it I wouldn’t have played in it I dont think – the winner has been consistent enough I suppose, that type of race – improving his trainers 0/15 record at track in last two years, 4/45 last 5 years. Not sure if Bashford went too quickly again or what, but not sure if that made a difference given he finished strongly, and disappointing if he did get outpaced up that hill by that winner! I probably wont be able to resist the next time he rocks up at Carlisle, or over a bit further.
What’s that I can see in the distance…a Cliff!!….
I had thought about ‘unloading the wheelbarrow’ on this one (that is a 2 pointer for me, occasionally 3 points – no 10 point win bets here!) but then I realised I would be doing that based on his price. I don’t think you should ever bet more simply because a horse is fairly short in the market and £££ signs are flashing in your eyes. On the flip side of that there are many pros who will bet more and more if one of theirs drifts and/or is a big price. That makes sense if you are confident in your approach etc.
Anyway, this one was an eye-catcher LTO where I tipped him at 10/1 and he ran a stormer to come second. He did a bit too much at times out the front and a stiffer test is ideal. He was beaten by more of a flat track slogger that day. He has a different jockey on him today (1/10,8 places) which may or may not help – his last one had won him as well – and if he can keep hold of him a bit longer, conserve more energy, he should go well here. He has plenty in his favour. A prominent running style (could lead if he wants, doesnt have to), class (he is better than this lot on song) no problems with the actual weight (1/2,2 places carrying 11-12 on his back in handicap chases) and he has placed at the track. Indeed his best performances have been at Carlisle, which is similar to Towcester – esp the very stiff finish. I can see him out in front and just grinding away at the same pace. Given the lead he may have by this point that will need a horse in behind to go quicker than him – which up this hill, in that ground will be tough. It will be slow motion stuff but I think 3s is just about fair enough. The trainer is also in form, 2/8, 4 places in last 14 days. She has only sent 3 handicap chasers to the track in the last 730 days, the selection being the one that placed.
I am not unloading the wheelbarrow because it is a C5 and unlike some tips in recent weeks my instinct is telling me to hold fire a bit. Strange things can happen at this level. We shall see if I come to regret that hesitancy.
Nalim looks a danger if bouncing back to his consistent form before the PU but isnt getting any younger with his only chase win coming on good. The break would be a slight concern also. Suggests that the PU was a physical issue maybe, rather than just having an ‘off day’. Georgian King won for me at 12/1 at Warwick in Nov 2014, tipped on this blog, albeit not many of you were reading it at that time! He owes me nothing and is getting a bit long in the tooth now. He has plenty in his favour and the trainer is red hot. A big run would not be a shock but I would hope something more progressive/with younger legs beats him. He was 3s when I decided what to go for here, now drifting to 7s. He has been a bit in and out in recent starts. Everything else has a few questions to answer, but of course in C5 chases nothing is ever a total shock. For a lot of these it depends on which side of the stable they got out of this morning. (that includes Mansionien Las- if he put it all together, back at a track he has won at, he would be a danger, big if mind on recent showings)
2.00 Winc – Gino Trail (14/1) PU
3.05 Winc – The Geegeez Geegee (12/1) Are you syndicate members confident..Tony?…
K Lee Chasers
3.50 Towcester – Mr Bachster (12/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(remember these are not tips. This is a test section, highlighting what could be interesting ‘ways in’ for certain horses, who may run well. Given how they have been doing to date it is clear why I try and stick to 3m+ chases for tipping and avoid the AW! To be used as a starting point for any further research of your own, albeit you can interpret the stats as you see fit)
1.10 Towcester – Ceann Sibheal – 7/1 (Sj/WH) 3rd 5/1- His trainer is 5/18, 10 places with handicap hurdle debutants in the last year and this looks to be an angle he increasingly looks to exploit. This one’s maiden form makes me a tad suspicious as it is really really poor. Given the odds he was clearly never in those races to go anywhere near and he simply may not have been fit. The 49 break is intriguing (wind op?) but at least that has given them time to get him fit. In a weak race, on paper, he looks an interesting contender and a bold run would not be a shock
2.20 South – Spinning Rose (15/2 general) – UP 9/1 (drifted) Likewise her trainer is 3/15, 4 places with flat handicap debutants in the last year, and given some of his previous stats this may suggest a slight change in approach. This one steps up in trip which should suit and is rather attractively bred on both sides – her sire Pivotal, is 11/48, 21 places with his Southwell handicap runners in last 730 days. Should be no problems with the surface.
5.10 Chelm – Mr Red Clubs – 13/2 general – was an eye catcher on his penultimate start at Wolvs where running well despite being trapped wide. Indeed if he was drawn inside that day I suspect he may have gone very close. He didnt look to stay last time out but traveled well enough and has plenty in his favour here. He has placed twice at the track so no issues there.
I have not looked at the opposition for any of those horses above. Results for this section are NOT recorded in the portfolio results for the blog (tips + systems). It is a TEST, albeit one that I am confident over time will find the odd monster, esp when the flat turf gets going (handicap debutants and first time out 2yo could throw up some tasty winners)
Thanks to the 70 of you so far who have chipped into the collection bowl. Much appreciated. One of you has even made a 12 month commitment at £12 per month, so cheers!
Every donation from £3 to £17 or more is very much appreciated and if today is anything to go by this could well be a model that takes off. I had better find some more winners (its all about profit though!) 🙂
For more info on the reasoning for the donations etc, read yesterday’s post, the email I sent yesterday, or click the link/Members Club Tab at top right of site.
If, at any stage, you wish to donate and help ensure the blog remains subscription free, the links are below…
That is all for today.