Well, those of you ‘old timers’ (a comment on how long you have been reading the blog, not your age!) who have been reading the blog for a while will know I enjoy the winners and the good days, and am very self critical on the bad days. But, they happen, and today’s two bets didn’t run very well! No surprise from Frank The Slink – that run was possible and when he wasnt sent out to lead I was concerned. He was worth a punt at the odds – and at those odds we will get more runs like that than wins, but the profits will speak for themselves. I deal in profits, not winners.
Total Assets – I think I underestimated her size and her ability to carry a big-ish weight, in that ground. She effectively had 12lb more on her back than the last day – 11-4, against 10-2, given her small frame, may be what done for her. It may not have been and she just did not run her race. Anyway, I was due a bad day and there will be plenty more. But, we have built up a decent cushion in the last few weeks.
I would not have backed the winner at the odds given my questions over the trip and his jumping under pressure. But, his win was no shock and he won it very well, jumping well in the main- it was a weak race.
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TIPS
2.20 2.10! Towcester
Bashford Ben – 1 point win – 3/1 (general) 2nd 9/2 (8l)
Ran a decent race, no real complaints, a run for our money and I definitely would have backed him this morning at that price- if he were not in it I wouldn’t have played in it I dont think – the winner has been consistent enough I suppose, that type of race – improving his trainers 0/15 record at track in last two years, 4/45 last 5 years. Not sure if Bashford went too quickly again or what, but not sure if that made a difference given he finished strongly, and disappointing if he did get outpaced up that hill by that winner! I probably wont be able to resist the next time he rocks up at Carlisle, or over a bit further.
What’s that I can see in the distance…a Cliff!!….
I had thought about ‘unloading the wheelbarrow’ on this one (that is a 2 pointer for me, occasionally 3 points – no 10 point win bets here!) but then I realised I would be doing that based on his price. I don’t think you should ever bet more simply because a horse is fairly short in the market and £££ signs are flashing in your eyes. On the flip side of that there are many pros who will bet more and more if one of theirs drifts and/or is a big price. That makes sense if you are confident in your approach etc.
Anyway, this one was an eye-catcher LTO where I tipped him at 10/1 and he ran a stormer to come second. He did a bit too much at times out the front and a stiffer test is ideal. He was beaten by more of a flat track slogger that day. He has a different jockey on him today (1/10,8 places) which may or may not help – his last one had won him as well – and if he can keep hold of him a bit longer, conserve more energy, he should go well here. He has plenty in his favour. A prominent running style (could lead if he wants, doesnt have to), class (he is better than this lot on song) no problems with the actual weight (1/2,2 places carrying 11-12 on his back in handicap chases) and he has placed at the track. Indeed his best performances have been at Carlisle, which is similar to Towcester – esp the very stiff finish. I can see him out in front and just grinding away at the same pace. Given the lead he may have by this point that will need a horse in behind to go quicker than him – which up this hill, in that ground will be tough. It will be slow motion stuff but I think 3s is just about fair enough. The trainer is also in form, 2/8, 4 places in last 14 days. She has only sent 3 handicap chasers to the track in the last 730 days, the selection being the one that placed.
I am not unloading the wheelbarrow because it is a C5 and unlike some tips in recent weeks my instinct is telling me to hold fire a bit. Strange things can happen at this level. We shall see if I come to regret that hesitancy.
Nalim looks a danger if bouncing back to his consistent form before the PU but isnt getting any younger with his only chase win coming on good. The break would be a slight concern also. Suggests that the PU was a physical issue maybe, rather than just having an ‘off day’. Georgian King won for me at 12/1 at Warwick in Nov 2014, tipped on this blog, albeit not many of you were reading it at that time! He owes me nothing and is getting a bit long in the tooth now. He has plenty in his favour and the trainer is red hot. A big run would not be a shock but I would hope something more progressive/with younger legs beats him. He was 3s when I decided what to go for here, now drifting to 7s. He has been a bit in and out in recent starts. Everything else has a few questions to answer, but of course in C5 chases nothing is ever a total shock. For a lot of these it depends on which side of the stable they got out of this morning. (that includes Mansionien Las- if he put it all together, back at a track he has won at, he would be a danger, big if mind on recent showings)
Good Luck
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Jumps Handicappers
2.00 Winc – Gino Trail (14/1) PU
3.05 Winc – The Geegeez Geegee (12/1) Are you syndicate members confident..Tony?…
Other
K Lee Chasers
3.50 Towcester – Mr Bachster (12/1<)
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(remember these are not tips. This is a test section, highlighting what could be interesting ‘ways in’ for certain horses, who may run well. Given how they have been doing to date it is clear why I try and stick to 3m+ chases for tipping and avoid the AW! To be used as a starting point for any further research of your own, albeit you can interpret the stats as you see fit)
1.10 Towcester – Ceann Sibheal – 7/1 (Sj/WH) 3rd 5/1- His trainer is 5/18, 10 places with handicap hurdle debutants in the last year and this looks to be an angle he increasingly looks to exploit. This one’s maiden form makes me a tad suspicious as it is really really poor. Given the odds he was clearly never in those races to go anywhere near and he simply may not have been fit. The 49 break is intriguing (wind op?) but at least that has given them time to get him fit. In a weak race, on paper, he looks an interesting contender and a bold run would not be a shock
2.20 South – Spinning Rose (15/2 general) – UP 9/1 (drifted) Likewise her trainer is 3/15, 4 places with flat handicap debutants in the last year, and given some of his previous stats this may suggest a slight change in approach. This one steps up in trip which should suit and is rather attractively bred on both sides – her sire Pivotal, is 11/48, 21 places with his Southwell handicap runners in last 730 days. Should be no problems with the surface.
5.10 Chelm – Mr Red Clubs – 13/2 general – was an eye catcher on his penultimate start at Wolvs where running well despite being trapped wide. Indeed if he was drawn inside that day I suspect he may have gone very close. He didnt look to stay last time out but traveled well enough and has plenty in his favour here. He has placed twice at the track so no issues there.
I have not looked at the opposition for any of those horses above. Results for this section are NOT recorded in the portfolio results for the blog (tips + systems). It is a TEST, albeit one that I am confident over time will find the odd monster, esp when the flat turf gets going (handicap debutants and first time out 2yo could throw up some tasty winners)
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That is all for today.
38 Responses
Anyone who took a chance on the the fitness of the pipe prideofthecastle would have been nice rewarded with an 8/1 winner.Also did cenunnas from tom georges stable,Paddy Brennan could have ridden it but given the trainers record at Leicester had a bet
Not a syndicate member (TGG) but Matt’s tweeted, seemingly uncertain of ground and class, but may appreciate light weight as a small horse.
Paul
Hi Josh,as regards The Geegeez he didn’t enjoy his last run at Market Rasen and that was either down to the heavy going or the amount of weight he had to carry?The weight isn’t going to be a problem tomorrow plus we have Dave’s 5lb claim too.I shall be there cheering him on,good luck with your bets tomorrow.
Thanks Tony – yep I remember us both chatting about him after and thinking he didn’t look comfortable early on. Way he was carrying head makes me think it wasnt ground – but that is a hunch rather than a knowledge of how a horse hating the ground may affect them (i just assume them running ok, but either paddling and never really going anywhere, or running out of energy/fading late on in a race) He looked uncomfortable way before I would have thought he decided whether or not he liked the ground! Maybe it was the weight. At least will hopefully find out one way or the other tomorrow. Good Luck, will be cheering him on! Will return to the Geegeez Syndicates at some point! (just my luck that I decided against going in for him!)
Hi Tony, give a cheer for me. I can’t make tomorrow. Catch up soon. Pete
£17 in your account mate. Great read. Keep up what you are doing and don’t change it!
Thanks Jarrod, much appreciated. Yep, I wont be changing much anytime soon! (albeit trying to improve the ‘Stats/Angles of Interest Test Section, but cant complain about how the tips and systems have been doing)
GG is a horse I have backed every time so he owes me nothing but it was a starnge run last time when Matt said he was confident of a good run – I will be backing him again tomorrow.
Josh The Geegeez is a small horse so the weight could of been the reason but as you say we will find out tomorrow
Just pinged a fiver, hope another 200,000 people do the same.
Cheers Steve, appreciated. Ohh, that would be nice! I think there are about 1800 or so who read this daily from the stats I can see, if I am reading them correctly!
Popped £17 in to the account – that is only 50p a day for the read which is value in any bodies world – as for the winners identified to offer only 50p at day seems miserly. Long may you continue
Thanks Joe – I would tend to concur with that haha. Much appreciated and glad you find value in the read/info, regardless of just the winners/profit.
Happy to send donation Josh. Had smaller bets on Corrunus 5.1 Pride of Castle 8.1 and ew Dolly Diamond backed from 20.1 to 12.1. Losers Retrieve the Stick, Home For Tea, Oil Burner, Little James, Carlingi, and Main bets advise by you, small loss on the day, keeps me busy in my retirement here in Thailand. Great forum on here, everybody pulling in the same direction and we all here to learn and help others defeat the enemy (the bookies) and stay under the radar. Thanks for all your efforts.
Cheers Roy, appreciated. Any donations, as and when, and a value that you place on how you engage/profit etc is appreciated.
Hi Josh, just to confirm my offline email with you yesterday a suggestion that other Saturday punters like me may wish to consider, I bet £10 e/w on your tips so from now on each Saturday will donate £2.50 to advised odds for any winners or place profit – keep up the great work.
On a separate point, I have a small system where I follow Trainers on the cold list, once they start to pick up places and a winner, the bigger the stable the better it works. I’ve been watching the hopelessly out of form Jonjo O’Neill stable for about 2 months, finally a winner yesterday, I have a hunch that with (hopefully) better ground soon, he could have dozens of fresh well handicapped horses who over the next few weeks could pop up at nice prices….what are your thoughts??..
Last year 2015 was the first since 2011 that Jonjo had a better February than March – whether that is a new trend we can only wait & see but it is with his chasers best LSP & strike rate, 6/13 last February.
J P McManus is having a much better season so far – still down -16.9 in total but that +100pts on average better than any year since 2008/9 season.
Strangely though, he too had a good February last year but with hurdlers. So we could be looking for Jonjo trained chasers not owned by JP ? ?
Yep I would tend to concur with that. The interesting thing will be those he has kept of the track – so are returning after a few weeks off/months – and whether they are too fresh first time out for example/needing the run – vs those that he has kept on the go in conditions they havent been handling. Johns Spirit is a talking horse at the moment, must be in everyones notebook as one that could bounce right back at some point,maybe the festival. He had a novice handicap chaser at Chelts on Saturday (in my notebook, forget his name,ridden by J Moore) who traveled ominously well and was cutting through the field a few from home – was then as if the light went out – not race fit and/or the mud got to him, he then tired, fell.
Definitely a yard to watch and in theory some of his should be bigger prices than they otherwise will have been. He has been unusually quiet so far, more than normal, and I suspect he has his eyes trained on this month/the spring, having actively decided to avoid the heavy ground with a lot of his. For sure, we dont want to be looking back in 4 months and going through all the Jonjo chase winners with regret – so definitely track closely – although every man/woman and their dog is I think!
Towcester 2.10! Good luck mate!
Hi Josh just pinged you a couple of bob to hopefully keep your tips and analysis available for a reasonble amount. As a 71 year old obviously funds can be a bit scarce but a small payment for the tips is well worth it I would say.I took your NH Trainer Stats earlier and find this quite a useful tool. At my time of life having been betting since I was about 16 one or two lessons have been learned and the key one to me is SPECIALISATION. which is where I think you score heavily and your record at the moment is miles in front of some other good judges. Keep it up
Hi Tony, many thanks for your comment and the donation,much appreciated. Your point/appraoch etc is partly why I am reluctant/ uncomfortable about introducing a statutory subscription as I am aware that may cut out a swathe of fellow punters like yourself. You are the best judge of what value you get from the blog, including what you bet and the profit you may or may not make. We shall see how the next 5 or so months go with this model/approach. But if everyone appreciates their experience/profit and is honest/generous enough then we should be just fine.
And in fairness, it has been a good time since October with the Members Reports, but that is all it has been and I still need to prove myself etc.
Yes, I think you have hit the nail on the head there. I focused on 3m+ handicap chases last season to an extent, but not as much as I have been this year and it is paying off. My approach to trends/stats is also much more in depth and that appears to be working well also.
All the best. Josh
Josh, have you got a link to the Video that shows you using the HRB when you profile the Coral cup race ? I cant find it !!
Hi Simon,
Yep link is here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/test-post-2/
That is one of bugs i need to fix, wont flick through the pages of blog posts. At the bottom of the blog, if you go to ‘Categories’ below, and ‘Blog’ you can find all posts listed and flick through pages that way, in future. I should create a separate page with all the links on etc.
Hi Josh.. not sure about your tip as Bashford Ben as horse 0/6 at the distance and trainer 0/7 at track in chases..overall 1-27 at track and 1-7 in the last 14 days..Additionally the horse 0/6 in C5 races and is 0/5 in Feb. March and April best time to catch the horse so 100/30 or 3/1 looks a tad short for me but hope it wins for you..have put in a donation as still think this is the best blog around all the best john
Thanks for donation John…
In my humble opinion….Bashford Ben…in handicap chases…
Trip – he has placed 3 times at this exact distance, one of them at this trip, 24.5f – he has won at 25f, and 26f. That extra stamina is no bad thing for a track like this. I wont be using that as an excuse if he loses. Even more so in testing ground. If he gets outpaced near the end then fine, maybe he def needs further, but dont think so – it is too short maybe at a track like Huntingdon.
Class he is 4/18 in C4, so his record at C5 is a bit of an irrelevance to me. He clearly has the ability to take this race. All 4 runs in C5 handicap chases have been when there has been Good in the going description…2 on good to firm. All evidence is that he needs juice in ground – and he isnt the quickest, may need soft to slow down others as much as anything. He has placed twice Feb, and ran very well LTO – no issue there for me. He has also won twice in December, 0.3, 3 places in january. Not many clear patterns on that front.
Trainer – as we saw with rose dobbin yesterday 3/58 at Newcastle – with these smaller yards, who dont have loads of horses and dont have loads with quality, such stats should be treated with some caution. The fact the horse has placed here and run well, (with good in going, outpaced) in a way makes the trainer track stats irrelevant. My stats say she is 2/8, 4 places with all runners in last 14 days. For a small ish yard that is decent. They seem to be in fine form.
They are just my thoughts, in any case 🙂 On paper i think he has a decent chance. But, we shall see. I wont be using any of those stats above as an excuse.
As with everything, all stats/positives/negatives are in the context of price. I can see why you would think that price is short enough, and fair enough. He is now 10/3, 4/1 in places and hopefully may drift a bit more. If he were 4s this morning I certainly wouldnt have had any hesitation.
Thanks for your kind comments about the blog.
Josh
Hi Josh ….all gd points and he is 5lb below his last official winning mark so would expect a gd run but not sure he has enough to win…he has won in December,March and April so will wait until next month but as you mentioned this is a class 5 which is a lower class and can be unpredictable so if the stamina kicks in he may well get up and has a better last time out than some his opponents so hope he hacks up and makes me look an idiot!!! cheers john
haha I do hope he hacks up, but that wont make you look an idiot! That ‘profile’ thinking makes us do well long term! Likewise I have the egg prepared if he falls out the back of the tv!
thanks Josh.
Long shot 16:50 Wincanton
Burton Boru 20/1 win/ew
He ran well enough Pab without being good enough. Still a bit green but a step forward. Havent looked at his breeding but ran on as if he will handle plenty further. Looks a big strapping horse also, one for a fence in time. Put him in your long term tracker. Maybe slowly slowly from the Tizzards, let him grow into his frame.
Seems a big drifter with money for Georgian King and Mansinian Lass but the bigger the price the better for me 6/1 is getting almost an each way steal
Yep – my cautious instinct when putting him up this morning makes me more wary of the drift, but I/we have backed a few in recent months that have drifted. On paper everything is fine, I cant think he will be ‘off’ if such a thing exists! Yep money for those not a total shock, but if BB runs his race, and if he does lead doesnt go to quick, he must go close!
Just went a little too quick early but traded 5/2 at the off and 11/8 in running so plenty of time to get your money back trading – I think this may be the way to play this horse. Never mind 1 point given back but good run for your money and onward and upward – Keep em Comin!!
yep, first thing is to get a run for our money and some excitement – maybe he did go too quick again, always hard to tell – but B Powell is prob best jock in that race (along with Kennedy) and fact he was happy to sit off and leave him maybe is an indication. That is twice now he has arguably gone too quick, with two different jocks – interesting! Maybe all connections are waiting for a nice day out at Carlisle!
Hi Josh commiserations regarding Bosham…..having been out and got back a short while ago I checked out the race and think he will win as the jockey seemed to think a strong stamina test would break the horses behind trying to keep up with him…for a long time I thought he would land the odds but just seemed to run out of steam in the latter stages..thanks for your kind remarks regarding the profiling comments but no doubt I will get the “idiot” cap many times as stats have a way of making us all come to the wrong conclusions…after all it is a game of opinions based on interpreting the information we have and it would be a boring world if we all came to the same conclusions…lets hope the handicapper drops him a few pounds and he will dot up at a bigger price next month!!! cheers john
Thanks John – yep he ran a fine race and you may well be right – havent decided if he went too quickly – the way he stayed on at the end (or maybe an illusion,but he kept galloping back past tiring rivals) suggests he wasnt totally out of puff. Do think the jock prob did try and ride sting out – I think that is because he doesnt have a change of gears, but i thought he ‘looked’ be going a comfortable pace. We shall see, ran like a horse in some kind of form, and maybe it is all about his next race! Stiff track, easy lead, soft but not too soft, job done! Differing opinions is what makes this game so great, and the horses!
Hi Josh
Just sent you a £12 donation
Its a class blog keep up the great work
All the best
Dave
Cheers Dave,much appreciated. Thanks for reading and your support. Josh