Members Report: 03/02/16 (COMPLETE)

I have had the misfortune of being a BT Broadband customer today, and as I write I have been without internet since about 2pm. Currently using the signal from my phone and no idea if/how much that may be costing me, but at least Sonny The One will cushion the blow! (update: Internet issues all sorted now) 

TDS ran poorly but STO did the business, holding on well. He is still young and mentally immature (jockey’s words in effect) and hopefully he will come on plenty from getting his head in front. His jumping needs to sharpen up but that was a good effort given how long he was out in front, and it was tacky heavy, rather than wet heavy! +5 more points to the pot. 

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‘VERY’ IMPORTANT: SUBSCRIPTIONS….

As you know I have been considering charging for certain aspects of the blog. Well, if I do charge, this won’t be until July at the earliest. For one reason or another I want to take my time with such a decision and get the blog/approach nailed down, including the flat season. And you never know, the wheels may come off by then 🙂 I am still to go through the survey results in detail but I will be redesigning the blog, making it more user friendly, (will still remain ‘clean’ and clutter free mind) and I want to introduce a proper Forum at some point. It isn’t lost on me that some tipping services that make 200 odd points a year charge in excess of £30 per month. While such a figure seems excessive to me, I have a belief in this blog and how good it is.

BUT…in the meantime I thought I would introduce some DONATE options. This is voluntary and relies on your honesty and generosity – and also allows you to make the value call and chip in an amount that suits you, as and when you see fit. (including never!) I know some of you bet £2 per point, some £20 like me, everything in between, and I know one of you bets £25EW on all tips, price allowing. Some of you don’t bet very often and may just bet on a Saturday when time allows, for fun money. Many of you may not have been reading for long, or may never follow my ‘tips’ and just enjoy reading my ramblings. And of course, the blog is more than just tips. (micro systems, free reports, stats etc) 

Anyway, I won’t get the violins out but the blog, promotions of other services and my stats guides are all I do – and as they say, every little helps. I don’t know if this experiment will work but I am going to try it. It is worth pointing out that even just £5 per point on all the tips since the start of 2016 would see you around £462.5 richer 🙂 (not to mention the +86 points from systems since August)

So, from now on, at the bottom of each post you will see the following options. These ‘donations’ are via PayPal and are live as we speak… 🙂 (no hints here!) (and you never know, if this works I may never need to introduce a subscription element) You may wish to chip in after a good win, or more regularly every week or month, or not at all. Up to you. 

Please let me donate, and help keep this blog subscription free…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to send you…

£3 Today: Donate HERE  £5 Today: Donate HERE | £7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

Many Thanks, every donation is much appreciated. 

 

***

TIPS

2.00 Newcastle

Total Assets – 1.5 points win UP – poor run, slightly surprised….could be the actual weight. Had 10-2 on back last run, 11-4 here, not the biggest of horses, albeit thought she would be fine. On that evidence the winner probably would have beaten Art Lord LTO but for falling, but who knows. 

Frank The Slink – 1 point winUP – not that surprised,worth a go. 

What a strange feeling!

***

Total Assets – Value is in the eye of the beholder and I have never been one for strict odds caps (ie ‘I will never back anything under 4/1’ although that is a decent enough approach). 11/4 is shorter than I would normally go but in the context of this race I think that is fair enough and offers a shade of value. I think she is going to go very very well here. This is her 4th chase start having won well LTO in a right old slog over further. Newcastle is a stiff track and even more so when the ground is like this. She wont be wanting for stamina and for one so inexperienced jumped very well LTO. The race looked to be run at a decent pace and the right horse (Present Flight) chased her home – he runs in the 3.10 below (system bet) so that will be interesting. In effect she has 10lb more on her back than LTO, but the day that such a rise stops me betting on an unexposed chaser will be the day to find a new pastime. (remember Ziga Boy, up 15lb!) She races prominently which is always a positive and her trainer does well at the track. 2/5, 2 places in handicap chases here in last 730 days, 4/20 overall last 5 seasons. Oh, and she has won at the track over hurdles. 

Frank The Slink – is clearly a punt with plenty of letters in his formline but he has won after being pulled up previously, and that last run was after a long break. The trainer is 2/5, 3 places with his handicap chasers here in last 730 days and a repeat of either of those runs 4 and 5 starts ago would see him right in the mix – that made him a bet at these odds. As simple as that. In handicap chases the horse is 3/8, 4 places with 1-7 runners…now 0/7, 0 places with more than this. There may be something in that and for those two wins he has led from the front in small fields. There are no out and out front runners in this race and if he is sent to the front then sit tight, we could have some fun. Of course, you may need your ‘lackamon’ eyes on to cast back through the field, but unlike that horse if he is out the back he may well stay there and be a PU again. Always happy to take that chance at odds like this, in a race like this. He could well be a money horse – all wins to date when 4/1 or shorter – 3/5, 3 places, +8 points. So, one to keep an eye on as they are clearly persevering for a reason and this is only his 19th chase start. 

The opposition…

Well Presented would not have won LTO to my eye if the horse that came to challenge him had not fallen. He looked likely to breeze past. He deserved that win and maybe he can build on it but before that he had a habit of placing. He will run his race but there are more progressive ones in here. Rocking Blues loomed up to our winning bet LTO, Art Lord, but I am not sure if he would have won. He does have his stamina to prove, as well as learning to jump better at pace near the business end. That fall may knock his confidence and the trainer is only 3/58 here. I am happy to take him on albeit IF he stays, and IF he jumps, given his profile and that run LTO, he won’t be too far away. I will be disappointed, albeit not totally dismayed, if the other two win. 

***

I have looked at 2.45 Ludlow and am happy to leave well alone! That is all for tips. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainers 

1.30 Newc – Mysteree (any odds) WON 2/1

3.10 Newc – Present Flight (any odds) UP 11/2

3.55 Lud – Zama Zama (10/1<) UP 5/1

Jumps Handicappers 

3.45 Newc – Amethyst Rose (12/1<) DNQ / Oil Burner (12/1<) UP 6/1

4.20 Newc – Surprise Vendor (12/1<) 

 

***

That is all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Only been following a couple of weeks, but fair enough mate. Sent you the minimum as a starter.
    Hope it can be a regular occurrence!
    Paul

  2. only recently came across your blog , but impressed with your enthusiasm ! making a profit / living from Horse racing is the hardest game in Town !!
    sent a small donation.

    1. Thanks Simon, donation much appreciated. Yep it is, but bloody enjoyable. I am no pro punter (ie dont view profit from betting at my main income) and the stats guides etc have done well. Hopefully this donation approach may take off and I can keep up the quality etc etc. Thanks again.

  3. Been reading your blog for sometime now but have only recently been putting cash down on selections.
    The work you put in and the write ups are informative and show clear depth of knowledge you have on racing and are throughly researched and even entertains.
    Have sent a donation , hope you put it to a bottle of Rioja

    1. Many thanks Tracy, much appreciated, very kind words indeed. I dont mind Rioja, but more of a Malbec fan and will be sure to buy a bottle or two!

  4. Josh,thats a pretty good approach,considering everyone is on a different level and can donate according to their profit,plus you don’t have hassle of organising subs,and you wont be concerned about the enivitable losing month which usually happens in the launch month,people can dip and out

    1. Cheers Gerry – I think that is the best way forward for now, and with any luck may be a model for a long time to come.

  5. Morning Josh I’ve only been following for a couple of weeks with minimum stakes but made a nice profit so have donated small amount as I was already thinking you should set up a donation system! Happy to donate 5% of my winnings every week – I track all profits and keep records so easy enough to do. As my bank increases in sze and my profits increase so will my donations 🙂 Fair enough?

  6. PS – I did a blog a couple of years ago for a bunch of friends for free (based totally on stats betting) and I know how much work and commitment is required on a daily basis so I think that donations are the best way forward to reqward you for your effort

    1. Thanks Carole, much appreciated. Indeed if everyone who profits from the blog has that approach then there should never be a need to a subscription model! I do rather like this approach, and helps build the community etc. Yep it does take a lot of time, thankfully I love it and the hours seem to fly by. And so far the stats guides and a few other bits and pieces have kept food on the table, and wine in the glass! 🙂 (p.s there will be losing weeks – and months of course, although I forget the last one!)

  7. Good morning Josh, I have been following the blog for a short while and have backed some of your selections to minimum stakes, nevertheless I have made a profit so I have sent you a small donation. I will back all the selections from now on, albeit to small stakes initially. I find the blog and the guides excellent tools in our battle with bookies and will be happy to donate regularly.

    1. Hi Edward, many thanks for your kind words and generosity, much appreciated. Glad you have made a bit, and are having fun, that’s what its all about. Josh

  8. Cheers Josh. Already on FtS with a nice looking £30 at 25s last night (thanks Paddy, though they wouldn’t lay £40) after a tip elsewhere, so here’s hoping. Not a very liquid market on the exchanges so just matched TA with a fiver at 4.4 on Betfair and, as it is drifting and I can be too greedy for my own good at times, left the remaining tenner to go to BSP if unmatched at 6. Good luck,
    Paul

    1. ohh 25s is a nice price, good to see money coming, hopefully it is yard related! Looks like TA will stay steady around 3s or drift further. No bother, looks sure to go well to my eye!

  9. Josh thanks for all the work you put into the blog,just made a donation which I will do on a regular basis,going to Sandown on Sat look forward to your trends for the 3,35,also Nicky Richards,just finished reading the autobiography of his father,the great GWRichards,remember Titus Oats,Playlord.and One Man I think the first two are a bit before your time Josh.Cheers BoB

    1. Cheers Bob, appreciated. Ah yes I think the first two are a bit before my time! In truth I need to brush up on my racing history! Will try and find a winner or two at Sandown.

  10. Although harry Whittington has gone a bit cold recently I will have a little saver on Frizzo along with zama zama now with a professional jockey aboard.Was given far too much to do last time out,if nico gets him positioned near front he may be be bit ore competitive towards business end

  11. I come recently but long enough to realize that you are a very intelligent and hardworking person. The donations is a very good system of gratitude, for me it is no problem in the coming days, I miss maybe it is a system of sending emails with the tips to try to save the odds, and you can Think About your service in Spanish: p thank you very much and good luck !!

    1. Ha I dont think the service in Spanish is going to happen anytime soon! The email option would only be considered if I ever did go down the subscription route. For now, you will have to try and get in the habit of checking once in the evening (never anything posted after 7ish usually) and in the morning (post complete by 10am mon-friday, 11am weekends)

      ,,,, Apuestas feliz…( i hope that means something! Blaming google if not!!)

  12. Hi Josh. I have been testing the water with a few subscription tipsters recently and your tips are by far the most consistent. I find it hard to believe your tips are free and have sent a donation and would be happy to do so on a regular basis. I only punt small, £2 per point and struggle to build my bank as I seem to keep withdrawing from it to top up my own funds. The daily blog is always a great read and is eagerly awaited. Keep up the good work.

    1. Thanks Jon. I am not always this consistent mind, but it has been a good few weeks! 🙂 Any donations, as when you see fit and to an amount that you deem worthy, will always be much appreciated.

  13. Personally i like the blog being free as that was what originally brought me to the blog, but i do appericiate the ammount of time and effort you put in Josh! As it stands tho i wouldn’t mind it becoming a subscription service as you’ve shown over the last 15 months results, but this idea of donating is a win in my books! I will happily donate as we win lol no pressure :p Still on small stakes tho but hoping to build the bank by enough to win some substancial cash 🙂
    Couple of bets i’m on today are 3:20 ludlow Dolly diamond 16/1 for mcpherson. 4:10 leicester Troika Steppes 5/1 for o’brien and having a punt on Carningli 2:45 ludlow for curtis 5/1

  14. Really like the donation idea josh,would think most people would have no problem given the quality of the bets,in reality we’re talking about the price of a few pints here,well worth it imo.

  15. Hi Josh

    I’ve seen your piece on voluntary subs. I think it is a good idea and fair enough.
    I keep track, daily of my P&L with you including Micro systems, non tips, and even accas.
    What I would like to do is give you 10% of my winnings per month. (if it’s a loss in a month then I wouldn’t donate?)
    For January therefore I want to pay you £46.50. However there didn’t seem to be a link? Could you let me have one.
    Would you be happy with this arrangement pending any change you make to subs later in the year.

    Kind regards & keep faith with the Reds!
    Pete

    1. Hi Pete, that is very generous of you, and I will leave donation up to you – if that is what you are happy to donate then thank you very much. On that basis, then yes I wouldnt expect you personally to donate in losing months! You can make up the £46 using the links above. Click on the £17 – you have the option for ‘quantity’ and you can select two, and also click a £12 link, and add them all up. That should work. Alternatively you can just ‘send me’ the money, to the email address registered to that paypal account…. racingtoprofit@gmail.com

      Hope that works,
      Josh

  16. Hi Josh,donations seems a good idea is it okay to donate on a weekly basis with you ? I’m already on Zama Zama and Surprise Vendor plus Pamak D Airy in same race and with my own handicap workings out and have some big price selections in the 4.30 Ludlow today Acapulco Bay,Finch Flyer and Sun Quest.Keep up the good work and am in the process of setting up my own blog/website but on the spread betting side of racing

    1. Hi Tony, how much you donate, and how often is totally up to you – weekly would be wonderful, and much appreciated. Good luck with your bets for rest of day.

  17. Hi Josh
    Although I am not a regular reader of your web site, I am more than happy to contribute a little something towards your efforts.
    I just don’t understand how you find the time to do all this as you say that you also have another job.
    You have certainly opened my eyes to another aspect of Racing
    Many thanks
    Tony

    .

    1. Hi Tony…much appreciated…. I don’t have another job. I left a decent one at University of Liverpool to pursue all things racing – The Stats Guides, odd promotion of other people’s services that I rate, has been decent enough in recent months, and will be moving forward. But, yes, in order to maintain efforts ion the blog front etc something needs to change, and I think this could be a good model.

  18. Good afternoon josh
    I only managed to come across your site at Lackamon time and glad that I did.
    As with everything else on your site I think you have got the “donation” method correct. As you rightly say people are prepared to wager quite different amounts and can tailor the amount appropriately. Personally I only use £1 a point, even though your level would not be a problem, as I only play for fun and the buzz we all get when one of your selections comes in.
    Really enjoy reading your blog and the reasonings and winning a few bob on top is a bonus.
    Have sent small donation which I intend to be a regular occurrence, I will probably increase my stakes and likewise the donation.
    Thanks again
    Best regards
    Richard

    1. Hi Richard…ah well that was as good a time as any time to start following! Many thanks for your donation, much appreciated. Thanks for your support. Josh

  19. Hi Josh
    Like many here I’m new to your site in the last few weeks (courtesy of a favourable mention on Geegeez) but I’ve been most impressed by what I’ve seen so far; your blog tips and micros are now part of my daily portfolio. I’m mostly a fiver a point punter and am more than happy to donate at that level right away with the promise to increase donations as my bank increases.
    Kind Regards
    Graham

    1. HI Graham, many thanks – yep I would like like to think Matt has mentored me well! Your offer is very kind and I hope I can keep the profits growing!
      All the best
      Josh

  20. Well I had considered a donation until today! Awful results, I’ll just stick to the “tips” from now on as they seem to do okay long term. Granted I missed Mysteree on the micro systems, my fault, but that meant the others were all doomed after that! The problem is they don’t take into account the opposition, as Halo Moon was a solid favourite who never looked like being beaten. Lets hope for a better day tomorrow.

    1. Haha well if you are new to these pages then yes, after your ‘day 1’ then I would expect any donations to stay in your pocket! I was due a couple of ‘fall out the back of the tv jobs’ given the form I have been in.

      Micro systems are micro systems – they dont take account of the oppo and many on these pages will use them as a guide, or ignore them completely. Those that have followed them systematically since August are on are +85 points or so. As a portfolio they have their ups and downs. By all means judge an approach on one day, but that will mean you get through a lot of services! 🙂 I would say 126 odd points from Tips in 4 months is a shade better than ‘ok’, but that is just me!

      Tomorrow may be the same, so may the day after, so may the month, but over the course of time we will do just fine.

  21. Is he for real??? Take a quick browse through the blog for the last couple months and youll see more consistent results at better prices then most others if not all others I have seen personally. If I was to judge a service on one bad week never mind one bad day I would have given up on betting a long time ago.

    Need to finish with the game ASAP if thats your outlook mate because it aint for you. Its a long term game. Post a link here of any tipster available who has shown more profits on single selections, ( outside of system bets), at those prices and in that time frame and I will consider my words eaten.

    Mike

  22. Reckon the biggest mistake people make is poor bank roll management,if you were to play both tips & micro systems for just a tenner a point,then your looking at a roll of £1100 (capital) and treat it as a long term investment,and like any other investment it will be open to fluctuations as whole point of the process is to find value not winners.
    And by finding value will in turn will pretty much eliminate any long term risk

    1. Yep very true that. Yea that bank roll sounds about right, 55 points each for Tips/Systems should be plenty, and combined should be. You have to have the mindset that you are ‘happy’ to lose it all – and if you are not, cant afford to,then you are betting too much. Without that mindset, when the losing run of 10-20 comes (and it will) you stick with it, rather than abandoning ship, only a few days later to see a 14/1 short romp home, followed by a 20/1 shot!

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