Some tidying up/notes…
just a quick work in a few horses that have appeared on these pages in the last few days, either on blog or in comments when speaking to some of you…Folsom Blue, who we backed at Gowran where he ran no sort of race ran 3rd at Punchestown on Sunday. I had a nibble at him there but didn’t realise he was such a poor jumper. He must have lost 3-4 lengths at every fence, not to mention the energy he then had to use to get his position back. If he could learn to jump he would be some stayer, but that is a big if at the moment. I don’t know how he finished 3rd really, some effort all things considered. He is in the notebook for the Irish National, which must be the target but will need to jump much better to be winning at the top table. But, he stays all day.
Top Wood ran at Sedgefield and is clearly more of a monkey that I had put him down for. He isn’t a plot horse I don’t think. Just an inconsistent one who could win decent races if he put his mind to it. One to be wary of. I made what I thought were valid excuses after his Taunton run (going too quickly etc) but in fairness one of you, Ian ‘Roddo’ I think from memory, came to a different conclusion – which the Sedgefield run would back up.
Finally, West of The Edge, won well at Plumpton yesterday at 16/1. Bollocks. For want of a better word. I had a nibble but take no satisfaction from tipping a horse on their penultimate start, highlighting that they should be kept onside, and then failing to either tip them or mention them next time out. So, sorry about that. I know at least one of you tracked him yourself and had a nibble. It was a hurdle race but stamina/ground were never going to be a problem and I had said his last run should just be ignored. One that got away.
Some points of interest that have entered my thinking…after the big winner in Ireland the other day at Gowran the trainer gave some reasoning for the winner’s running style that I had not considered. Early in his chasing career he had taken a very heavy fall. Ever since then he hated being surrounded by horses, hence why they always tried to bounce him out in front, or at least with plenty of daylight around him. When he couldnt get away on the front end and/or was surrounded by horses from the start, he doesn’t like it and doesn’t run well. I find that kind of thing fascinating. Likewise with West of The Edge – his trainer said he is quite a small horse who can be intimated by big fences and will progressively go slower – hence why sending him over hurdles is no bad thing, freshens him up mentally and gets him going quicker, attacking his jumps. Anyway, I find that kind of insight interesting/useful for future reference.
(this post includes links to spreadsheet/PDF of Tips for your records)
Sonny The One – 1.5 points win – WON 4/1 (recorded at that price,was available with two mainstream bookies all of last evening,and with Bet365 for a couple of hours this morning)
Tour Des Champs – 1 point win – 6/1 UP (poor run,despite poor trainer record,one to be wary of – maybe best caught fresh, look out for him during Twister Season, Oct/Nov maybe!)
*prices available as of 18.41 – 01/02/16
Well the first tips of February and while they are not going to make us mega rich I think they are both overpriced and should give us a good run for our money.
Sonny The One – comes here for the inform Colin Tizzard and the brilliant Brendan Powell Jnr (biased clearly having given Ziga Boy a wonderful ride – but he is underrated). This horse is unexposed and is 0/10, 5 places to date – I think it is only a matter of time. His run last time was his first over this kind of trip and he ran a cracker. He was beaten here by Walforf Salad who ran a blinder in a C2 at Cheltenham on Saturday, putting lengths back to the 3rd. Likewise STO was 22L ahead of the third that day. He is fit, in form, handles the ground/track and the trainer is in form. He is young and progressive. In that context, I thought 4s / 7/2 was generous and I think he should be shorter based on that potential. Of course, he does need to get his head in front. He also has a light weight which could help in this ground.
Tour Des Champs – This is about whether to put a line through the Welsh National run where I tipped him. He has now pulled up in that race the last twice. It is possible he bounced LTO and/or hated the extreme going. He was never really travelling and made scrappy errors. But, he has class, and the visor may spark him up. A repeat of his penultimate run would see him out-run his 11/2 odds for me. The concern is more the trainer- his generally dont run well here for some reason – 3/48 in last 5 years. 0/6, 1 place in handicap chases here in last 2 years. But, everything else is in his favour and I would hope to see a better run returned to this level.
I think Whywoods Brook makes the market here and if he wins then fair enough, but I think he is short enough. The race rather set up for him LTO (they went very hard) and while clearly in form I think the two above look more interesting. I think if those two run their race they will beat him, but he does look the safest option – hence his position in the market. You do know what you are going to get – although he can clout a fence as well. Cork Citizen would be a danger if money arrives from his canny yard. They are 3/15 in last two weeks and he is very much an unknown quality. The break would concern me, esp at the odds, and I am happy to leave him. Nicholls is 1/25 in the last 2 weeks and they are still struggling to get any consistency, albeit 40% have placed. Regardless, the horse has a few too many questions to answer for me and while unexposed in this sphere is another I am happy to watch. Ballyoliver is just out of form and has yet to run any kind of race on heavy.
4.45 Taunt – Milestone (10/1<) DNQ (at no point came into range, 25/1 SP)
That is all for today.