February Trainers To Keep Onside

INTRO

Welcome to this month’s ‘Monthly Trainer’s’ Report.

As always, potential qualifiers will be posted on the blog in the free ‘Daily Members Reports for you to use as you please. All results will be recorded to 1 point win bets.

As with all trainer micro angles the sample sizes are fairly small – that is the nature of an approach like this. To ensure that I am focussing on an aspect of trainer behaviour I have looked at how their record in February compares to other months and I have also made sure that the winners come from a ‘large’ pool of horses, ie the figures are not just based on one or two horses doing all of the winning.

The information is presented as I have found it for you to interpret as you see fit. If you have your own system building software you may wish to add these in and/or interrogate them further. As always the price restrictions are a guide. In the ‘notes’ is information about how the runners do when sent off at bigger prices. Occasionally there is the odd winner ‘out of range’ and I would pay close attention when a horse is around the ‘boundary’.

You may wish to back them systematically, ignore them, or use the research/knowledge in your own form analysis. As I have said previously my own approach is to look at the horse and ask whether I can discount it, based on my approach to analysing races/horses. Ie if a ‘qualifier’ is 0/15, 0 places beyond 2m4f and is running over 3m, I would leave them alone. If I can’t confidently dismiss a runner I trust the research and back them. As always I pay close attention to current trainer form as well.

In January the portfolio of micro angles (Jan Trainers + ‘other’ + Jumps Handicappers) made +8 points, taking their total since the start of August (when monthly trainers stepped up) to +86.3 points. (if backing them all when qualifying, with a widely available top price with a BOG bookie)   

Right, that’s enough of my waffle, to the trainers…(in no particular order)

 

FEBRUARY TRAINERS (National Hunt Only)

 

TOM GEORGE

  • Jan/Feb
  • Handicap Chase
  • Horse Runs Last 90 Days: NOT 0 or 1
  • Jockey: P Brennan
  • 12/1 or under (guide)

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 75 26 34.67 59.39 45 60 69.82 93.09 34.56 1.65
2016 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 -3 -100 -0.04 0
2015 20 5 25 3.13 9 45 3.66 18.29 -0.1 1.19
2014 15 5 33.33 12.13 10 66.67 15.14 100.91 14.87 1.79
2013 14 7 50 16.13 11 78.57 18.54 132.4 9.14 1.97
2012 19 7 36.84 17 12 63.16 18.15 95.54 8.29 1.63
2011 3 1 33.33 5 1 33.33 5.98 199.33 0.2 2.27

 

Notes

We have been following Tom George since the start of January and he has only had 3 qualifiers. He is another example that price is always a guide. During Jan he had a 14/1 SP winner under the rules above, which was 12/1 in places throughout the day. His record with those above 12/1 before that winner was 0/9, 1 place. Like with most trainer micro angles, a small enough sample. His record with those over 12/1 is now 1/10, 2 places, +5 SP. He has had a quiet Jan and will hopefully step up a gear in the next few weeks.

 

***

DAVID PIPE

  • All Handicaps (hurdles + chases)
  • Class 2
  • Odds: Any
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 46 16 34.78 67.91 22 47.83 76.51 166.33 27 2.12
2015 15 6 40 28.5 8 53.33 32 213.35 11.18 2.3
2014 13 4 30.77 37 4 30.77 41.14 316.47 7.56 2.45
2013 7 1 14.29 -4.25 3 42.86 -4.23 -60.47 -0.34 0.86
2012 5 2 40 2.5 3 60 2.77 55.33 5.8 2.74
2011 6 3 50 4.16 4 66.67 4.84 80.63 2.8 2.13

 

Notes

All evidence suggests that Pipe’s C2 runners should be feared during this month. He does ok in other classes, and will have winners, but for consistency and profitability over recent seasons, it’s his C2 runners that deserve our attention. Same rules..C1 (1/18, 4 places, -8 SP) C3 (6/44, 19 places, -20.25 SP) C4 (8/45, 19 places, -0.62 SP) C5 (3/10, 4 places, +1.5 SP) Do with that information as you please. I will be focused on the C2 runners.

He is 1/10, 3 places with runners over 12/1, with those priced 25/1 currently 1/4, 2 places. It would be nice if he could have another one of those! His yard, a bit like Nicholl’s, has been a bit in and out this season but hopefully he can step up this month. As always with these angles close attention should be paid to current trainer form.

His profits in the Betfair Place Market (second column from the right) have been decent enough.

Importantly the 16 winners have come from 14 different horses since start of 2011.

***

SUE SMITH

  • Handicap Chases
  • Soft through to Heavy
  • Odds: Any
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 50 15 30 46.63 23 46 52.42 104.84 22.07 1.81
2015 6 2 33.33 13 2 33.33 15.95 265.83 1.65 2.47
2014 16 7 43.75 20.13 8 50 22.33 139.57 2.46 1.87
2013 14 2 14.29 -3.5 6 42.86 -3.39 -24.24 1.12 1.09
2012 3 1 33.33 8 1 33.33 7.29 243.03 0.52 3.13
2011 11 3 27.27 9 6 54.55 10.24 93.09 16.32 1.92

 

Notes

Sue Smith’s chasers usually come alive at this time of year, or have done historically. They also relish the mud. When racing on Good to Soft or better during this month they are 0/26, 4 places so far. Given the weather at the moment I am not sure if there is too much ‘good’ around.

With those priced over 10/1 she is 0/4, 1 place. That place was at a big price.

***

LUCINDA RUSSELL

  • Handicap Chases
  • 1-14 Chase Runs ONLY
  • Odds: Any
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 59 16 27.12 47.13 27 45.76 59.51 100.86 21.48 1.64
2015 20 7 35 24.25 10 50 28.63 143.15 6 2.01
2014 10 3 30 7.38 4 40 8.89 88.94 1.89 1.9
2013 12 2 16.67 -2 5 41.67 0.03 0.27 7.25 1.01
2012 7 1 14.29 0.5 2 28.57 1.54 22.04 -1.45 0.94
2011 10 3 30 17 6 60 20.41 204.08 7.79 1.82

 

Notes

Not much to say here bar those with 15+ chase starts are 2/35, 8 places. Clearly it is best to focus on the more unexposed runners. 0 chase runs are 0/6, 1 place to date. Those priced over 12/1 are 1/10, 3 places, with one 16/1 winner. Over 16/1 are 0/4, 1 place.

***

EVAN WILLIAMS

  • All National Hunt Handicaps
  • Class 4 and 5 ONLY
  • 10/1 or under
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 34 10 29.41 29.88 12 35.29 36.52 107.43 -5.23 1.66
2015 5 1 20 1 1 20 1.35 26.97 -3.01 1.14
2014 3 2 66.67 15 2 66.67 16.52 550.6 3.24 4.44
2013 9 4 44.44 12.13 4 44.44 14.37 159.67 -0.3 2.31
2012 6 2 33.33 7.75 2 33.33 10.2 170.04 -1.66 1.87
2011 11 1 9.09 -6 3 27.27 -5.92 -53.77 -3.5 0.52

 

Notes

Definitely a micro angle with few qualifiers a year but he usually has a winner or two for us to cheer home. Compared to all other months (like all trainers here) February really does stick out with the same system rules. His record above C4 with all other rules the same is 5/38, 14 places, -10 SP, AE 0.81.

Market support appears to be important for his runners, with those sent off over 10/1 currently 0/30, 2 places, when all other rules are the same.

Importantly, all 10 winners have been with different horses. I would like the placed horses to be higher – they either win or fall out the back of the tv so far. But, overall, they should be worth following.

***

JIM GOLDIE

  • All National Hunt Handicaps
  • 14/1 or shorter (guide)
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 37 10 27.03 36.13 17 45.95 44.09 119.16 13.58 1.53
2015 6 1 16.67 1 2 33.33 2.89 48.08 -0.92 0.71
2014 6 3 50 11 3 50 11.65 194.15 1.4 2.5
2013 9 2 22.22 9 5 55.56 10.67 118.56 8.6 1.72
2012 6 1 16.67 9 2 33.33 11.68 194.7 2.35 1.18
2011 10 3 30 6.13 5 50 7.2 72.03 2.16 1.57

 

His record with those over 14/1, with the same rules, is 0/10, 1 place. He will no doubt have a big priced winner at some point. His 10 winners have come from 7 different horses over the years.February appears to be the only month whereby you can be sure that these runners will generally go well. Consider that just in the months of August-December his record with the same runners is 10/98, 30 places, -43.75 SP , AE 0.69.

 

***

That is all for this month’s ‘Monthly Trainers’. Collectively, based on history, they will average 2 bets a day and hopefully as a group they come out in profit to continue the decent run of the ‘monthly trainers’ and the portfolio of micro systems in general. They won’t all be profitable, and not every month will be profitable, but over the course of the year they should add to the betting bank, as they have been doing since August.

Happy Punting,

Josh

p.s as always, any questions you know where  I am. Leave a comment on the blog or email me: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

p.p.s There were a couple of other trainers that I looked at but their record didn’t necessarily suggest that February was targeted. One of you pointed me towards Nicky Richards and he will be the next focus of my developing ‘trainer in focus series’. I will record another video of me researching him as there is plenty to get stuck into. 

p.p.s  GET THE ABOVE IN A PDF HERE

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

    1. No problem Philip – indeed – and to give us an edge over other punters 🙂 Hopefully this lot produce some decent profits this month but we shall see.

  1. I cannot to the kind of detailed research you do as I have not the time. But I am surprised you include Nicholls as being on a list of trainers whose horses are a bit in and out. I think if you looked at his record for the last ten or fifteen years January and first two weeks in February are always very quiet. He gives all his horses the flu jab and has been very honest about the effects these have. But he still has to run some horses, especially on Saturdays, because he needs to get races in to them and they have to be entered in the higher grades because that is the quality of his string.

    But because they are trained by Nicholls they are seriously overbet. If Frodon turns up in a Cheltenham hanicap you will see a markedly better performance than on Saturday and he might be a ‘price’ worth taking at some stage when the target is clear. Henry Cecil, in his early career, never minded picking up valuable handicaps with group horses and Nicholls has quite a good record of winning these as well. However, I am talking through memory and research might show that I am talking through my rear, but I don’t think so. Philip Clayton (The Pennies Punter)

    1. Hi Philip – in truth that was probably a flippant comment and not backed up by much data – just a feeling that he hasn’t been firing on all cylinders – as they have admitted themselves. But, that is compared to his high standards, rather than against others. Like you I suspect we will see a marked step up from quite a few in the weeks/months ahead. But for now, at least those of his that are overbet help set up the market for others.

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