Members Report: 25/01/16 (complete)

System bets are all for today.


Jan Trainers 

2.30 Newc – Good Vibration (16/1<) 

3.45 Kemp – Roc Dapsis (12/1<0 

Jumps Handicappers 

1.55 Newc – Amethyst Rose (12/1<) 

2.30 Newc – Redkalani (12/1<) 

3.35 Newc – King of The Worlds (12/1<) 


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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Fatcatinthehat has been hammered from 12/1-13/2 in the earlies for the Whittington/Sheehan combination.Not much value in the Nicky Richards nhf horse at 9/4 best price.It hasn’t been backed either,so those in the know either don’t like the price or maybe wary of opposition,sir vinski in the 2.30 has been well backed last 2 outings but failed to fire,suppose he will at some stage,new pilot up,bit short with that at 9/2

  2. Ericht 345K has his best chance in a while and 7/1 is solid.
    105K Storm Alert, Moon Trip and Tisfreetdream all have reasons to be considered.
    220 Cappy Brown
    250 More Kudos
    600 Honey Required
    Have h’capping opportunities at these levels.
    325 Dovils Date is he fit?
    500 Big Storm Coming – topical tip!
    Offer ‘value’ perhaps?

  3. Newcastle gonzo,the eye was drawn to Irish based jockey Davy Russell who had two bookings,i added 2+2 together and came up with 5 (as you do)and ended up messing around with some very basic statistics,came across a few interesting enough ones regarding his course and month stats,over the last two years(since he lost his retainer as number one jockey with gigginstown on January 1st 2014)

    Cheltenham(all meetings) 2014/2015

    19 rides/5 wins/+52.50 P/L @ sp

    March (2014/2015) 94 rides/19 wins +87.57 @ sp

    Very basic stats,very small sample size & this is just a starting point for further investigation,but could be he’s flying under the radar somewhat as to his overall ability since losing such a high profile job.

    1. Hi ant,it’s for all meetings at cheltenham(taken from the atr site),and certainly not to be anchored to,but when you think most peoples attention(which could very well turn into money in the market) will be focused on the more high profile trainers/jockeys,there might be a few of his rides that could be a few points more then their actual chance of winning,
      Its a wait and see thing but wouldn’t be put off if a horse turned up with the right profile at biggish odds given those stats.Also has a first time booking at Huntingdon later in the week to ride singlefarmpayment which is worth keeping an eye on.

  4. Roc dapsis just won @ 14’s!!!! Only put money on for some interest today as it was over the odds cap and necastle had been called off lol Made my day that has 😀

  5. thanks robbie w

    the micros is very good but the price angle gets confusing,, did it go 12s before the off

    also mullins had a 33/1 winner today in the first at kempton,, mullins is in joshes heavy ground trainers report im sure ?

    1. RE Mullins’ horse. Correct and today’s conditions were Soft, right?

      He had another winner at 10s at Lingfield just before Jan and I think that was also Soft

      Maybe an adjustment to the system is in order

    2. Apology’s ant,was at work doing a few things at the same time,post looks a bit mad reading it back,lol

      The 94 number in the stats refers to all rides at all courses during march 2014 and march 2015.

      Davy Russell-all rides,all courses.

      March 2014/61 rides/11 wins/+50.57
      March 2015/33 rides/ 8 wins/+37

      Which gives us a total of 94 rides where he wins 19 with a plus 87.57 at starting price,not really sure why there’s a peak during the month of march to be honest,but its a handy enough sample size and still worth having a closer look to see if there’s anything behind the numbers.

      The Cheltenham stats are a bit wishy/washy with a few bigger priced winners,pick up rides due to jockey injures etc skewing the small sample,better of just disregarding them.

  6. Doc Dapsis did touch 12/1 at one stage today but every time I checked including from 3.30 onwards till off it was 16/1 and 14/1 hence I didn’t back it…………………….have finally stopped screaming but hey ho!!!
    Well done Josh and all who did back it

  7. As with all microsystems,the prices are guidelines and not set in stone,i backed it last night at 14 e/w,sometimes they shorten in live market,sometimes they don’t,you have to use your judgement and decide if its value at the price,i would let it run at 11/4 but not let a winner pass on a 2 point differential

  8. I have price guidelines on some of my systems and do stick to them and it’s all down to the individual,at the end of the day it’s the long term results that’s important not the daily ones.

  9. 2.40 Southwell tomorrow: Swinbank has 3 entries in this one race

    What do people make of trainers putting multiple horses in a small field race? That they really want to win it?

    Early money’s already gone in for Dark Ruler

  10. Only backing to small stakes while I find my way round the profiles, backed Roc Dapsis as it was 12/1 this morning BOG.
    Good Luck to all.

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