Saturday Big Race Trends + Gowran (complete)

 

I have had a look at the Thyestes Chase from Gowran tomorrow as well as the Peter Marsh from Haydock on Saturday. 

I have tried to highlight what may be a ‘winning profile’ based on the trends/stats I have uncovered. 

As always these are there for you to use as you please, to help in your own analysis, or to to demonstrate why I may end up ‘tipping/advising’ a certain selection. 

(My Daily Punt column will look at the big handicap hurdle from Ascot)

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Thursday 21/01/15

GOWRAN – Thyestes Handicap Chase

19 renewals

299 runners, 69 placed horses

Notes:

  • In 2006 was upgraded from G2 Handicap to G1 Handicap
  • 1 horse down as having ‘no run’, likely no UK form before win. (‘no run 1/10, 3 places)

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‘WINNING PROFILE?’

  • Top 9 or Did Not Complete LTO
  • Ran within previous 60 days
  • 8-31 career runs in total
  • 0-10 handicap chase runs
  • Top 3 on at least one of previous 5 starts

(we shall see what kind of short-list that will leave)

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 12/18 Top 9 LTO
    • BD: 1/2, 1 place
    • Fell: 2/12, 4 places
    • PU: 3/29, 4 places
    • 10th or worse But completed: 0/41, 6 places…14% runners…9% places

Horse Age

  • Not much on age, winners from age 6-12
    • 11+: 2/48, 6 places…11% winners…16% runners…7% places

Days Since Run

  • 17/18 ran 16-60 days ago
    • 17/218, 59 places…94% winners…73% runners…86% places
    • 1-15 days: 1/52, 6 places
    • 61+ : 0/19, 1 place

Season Runs

  • 7+ : 0/23, 7 places

Odds

  • 18/19 were 20/1 or shorter SP
    • 22/1-40/1: 1/59, 4 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 1/18, 3 places
  • IRE: 17/255, 63 places
  • FR: 1/25, 3 places

Weight (ex J- Clm)

  • When Heavy (+ soft to heavy)
  • 11-00 + : 1/39, 8 places
    • Clear Top in Heavy: 1/7, 3 places
    • Clear 2nd to 5th : 0/23, 7 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

  • Clear Top Weight: 4/19, 9 places (2 of those in last 5 renewals)

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 1-7: 0/19, 3 places (1/10 down as having 0, no UK form)
  • 32+ : 0/40, 5 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 18/19 had 0-10 handicap runs
    • 18/198, 51 places…95% winners…66% runners…74% places
    • 11+ : 1/101, 18 places

H- Run (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 11+ handicap chase runs: 0/64, 10 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 18/18 had placed on at least one of previous 5 starts
    • 0/32, 2 places did not

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 8+ : 0/21, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 17/18 Top 4 on at least one of previous 3 starts
    • 1/54, 4 places did not

Best In Five Runs

  • 18/18 Top 3 on at least one of previous 5 starts
    • 0/38, 2 places did not

Class Move

  • 15/18 running at same, or up 1 or up 2 classes from last run (grade B to grade A would be a move of 1 class)
    • 15/161, 43 places…83% winners..54% runners…62% places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR) No. of Runners

  • 8 runners or fewer: 2/60, 13 places…11% winners…20% runners…19% places

 

 Track LTO (of interest)

  • Leopardstown: 10/134, 32 places
  • Chepstow: 2/4, 2 places
  • 1 win each: Fairyhouse/Aintree/Thurles/Clonmel/Limerick/Newbury
  • Cork: 0/8, 0 places
  • Navan: 0/22, 4 places
  • Punchestown: 0/23, 4 places
  • Naas: 0/11, 4 places
  • Tramore: 0/18, 3 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • W Mullins: 6/34, 14 places
  • 1 win each: Brassil/Martin/Mangan/Brooks/Treacy/Swan/Hughes/Gilligan/Cahill
  • Paul Nolan: 0/10. 5 places
  • Noel Meade: 0/19, 0 places

 

***

 

SATURDAY….

3.15 Haydock: Peter March Chase

15 previous renewals since 1997

137 runners, 40 placed horses

1 horse down in HRB as having ‘no run’ – likely to only have had form abroad.

‘WINNING PROFILE’

Not an overly strong set of stats to go on, and not a massive pool of runners. Plenty of pointers but not many ‘killer stats’

Of importance…

  • Top 3 at least one of previous 3 starts
  • Top 2 at least one of previous 5 starts
  • In HEAVY: Top two in weights a negative, those carrying 10-6 or below a positive
  • Mark up those running at same distance or dropping max 1f from LTO
  • Running at Chepstow (Welsh Nat?) LTO a negative

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing of note.
    • 7/14 Top 3 LTO
    • 4/14 Fell or PU

Horse Age

  • 15/15 Aged 8 or older
    • 6+7: 0/17, 4 places

Odds/Market

  • Nothing of note. Winners at all prices.

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 8/35, 14 places
  • IRE: 6/65, 19 places
  • FR: 1/33, 7 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

Noting much, BUT when ground is HEAVY (7 renewals)….

  • 11-7 + : 0/14, 4 places
  • 11-8: 0/5, 1 place
  • 11-10: 0/8, 2 places
  • 10-6 or less: 5/30, 10 places…+50 SP (5/7 winners in heavy)

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

In HEAVY…

  • Top 2 in weights (including joint weights)
    • 0/16, 4 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 14/14 had won at least once in previous 6 starts
    • 0/20, 5 places had not (not a killer stat, but interesting)

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 13/14 Had placed at least once in previous 3 starts
    • 1/23, 5 places had not…7% winners…17% runners…12.5% places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 5+ handicap chase wins: 0/13, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

  • 14/14 Top 3 on at least one of previous 3 starts
    • 10/70, 23 places had won at least once…+60 SP
    • 0/19, 3 places did not

Best In Five Runs

  • 14/14 Top 2 on at least one of previous 5 starts.
    • 0/14, 1 place did not

Distance Move

  • 12/14 running at same distance or dropping a maximum of 1f from last run
    • 12/58, 22 places…+76 SP
    • 0/25, 4 places dropped 4f or more from last run
    • 1/28, 5 places moving up 1f or more. (winner was moving up 5f)

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 13/15 had placed in 0-7 chases only
    • 8+ : 2/39, 9 places
    • 0-7: 13/98, 31 places
  • 14/15 placed 0-5 times in Handicap Chases
    • 6+ : 1/27, 5 places…7% winners..20% runners…12.5% places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • Class 2: 0/40, 9 places (could just be an anomaly)
    • C3/4: 3/17, 3 places
    • C1: 11/73, 26 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst                

  • 11/14 ran in Listed or higher LTO
    • ‘non major’ LTO: 3/58, 12 places…21% winners…42% runners…30% places

 Track LTO (of interest)

  • Wetherby: 6/24, 13 places…+46 SP
  • Haydock: 3/15, 5 places
  • 1 win each: Newbury/Cheltenham/Lingfield/Ascot/Kempton
  • Kelso: 0/4, 0 places
  • Aintree: 0/6, 1 place
  • Sand: 0/6, 1 place
  • Chepstow: 0/18, 4 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Miss V Williams: 2/8, 3 places
  • Mrs S Smith: 2/10, 6 places
  • 1 win each: A C Whillans/E Williams/D Pipe/D McCain/M Jefferson
  • NTD: 0/10, 1 place
  • A King: 0/4, 0 places
  • P Nicholls: 0/6, 1 place

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Kerry Lee’s runner will want watching if she sends one to Haydock

    There will not be any stats for Trainer Form strong enough to indicate a winner

    norman 20/01/16 12:32 PM Reply


  • Forget that as a suggestion…nothing in the probables for Saturday’ Peter Marsh Chase….only 1 runner in an earlier race

    norman 20/01/16 12:36 PM Reply


  • Reve De Sivola will be hard to beat off 139 if he jumps anything like.

    Darren 20/01/16 7:43 PM Reply


    • Maybe but is there a reason the horse hasn’t been chasing for years? I’ve tried going through the stats set out above and all roads just about lead to Fingal Bay, grrrr, not what I wanted!!!.

      Andy 21/01/16 8:44 AM Reply


  • Hmm I see that horse racing Ireland have gowran park down as heavy both courses with “a generally dry forecast”,(via Twitter )had a look at the rain radar on the Irish met office site,looks like there’s a very good chance of rain around the area over night,should take some getting if that’s the case.

    robbie w 20/01/16 8:06 PM Reply


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