UPDATE: Well I have upped my ‘notebooking’ game this jumps season and with the likes of Art Lord and Russe Blanc it is starting to pay off. You can’t beat watching races and when you only focus on one race type it does help – well it helps me anyway!
I don’t know if he would have won if the horse upsides him hadn’t fallen – too far out to tell – but that is why 1. I don’t get too irate when I back a last fence faller etc, it does even out over time…2. the importance of track position. The jockey on the faller made a decision to close down the leader before that fence and I think he attacked it too fast. He was unproven over the trip and while he looked to be going well, Art Lord hadn’t been asked for any effort. Anyway, I don’t really care, a winner is a winner and it keeps the good run going.
(i think that takes the tips to +57 points in the last 19 days, and ‘the portfolio’ to +200 points in just over 5.5 months. That was my 12 month target for ‘the portfolio’ so I think we are ahead of schedule!)
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TIPS
3.10 Newbury
Achimota – 1.5 point win – 7/1 general
FORECAST – 0.5 point – No. 9 to beat No.5 (5/2-7/1)
Abandoned. Damn. Assumed that would go ahead. That is a couple of hours I will never get back!
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MICRO SYSTEMS
No potential qualifiers.
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(remember these are not tips)
1.10 Muss – Proud Gamble – 16/1 – Dobbin is 3/13, 5 places (or was before season started) with her handicap chasers at the track. In what looks a weak race at first glance, he is in the ‘could be anything ‘ box. He didn’t get very far last time on chase debut so will need to jump better – but everything to date screams that he wants a trip. I always like when connections don’t mess around over hurdles for too long, indicating they clearly think they have a chaser on their hands. The trainer is in ok form, 5 recent runners, one placed, and I believe it was one of hers that loomed up next to Art Lord yesterday. So, if he jumps well, I think he will out run his odds. The other negative is that this could be viewed as his seasonal debut again, given how early he fell LTO. So fitness, and whether he will pull again (too fresh) would also be concerns. All built into the price for me. Either way, given his profile, he is one to keep onside over fences up north. I suspect they will get wins out of him.
6.10 Muss KEMPT!- Elle Rebelle – 8/1 – Trainer and Jockey are 3/6, 4 places when teaming up in handicaps at the track. Morris is 2/7, 5 places on this horse. The last run was her first over this distance and it looks like she could improve further for it. She looks an interesting runner here.
6.40 Kempton – Mr Red Clubs– 12/1 – was an eye-catcher LTO that I missed this morning, apologies. Writing this at 11.21 (cheers Pat!) He was noted down as travelling well on his second run after a break and running well considering he was trapped very wide and must have lost quite a few lengths over the trip. He has been best at Wolvs to date but has won here. He goes over a new trip for the first time and there is not enough evidence on the track to suggest that he definitely will not stay- certainly not at this class. When they fail at a higher level over a similar trip it is hard to know whether they were just outclassed, or just didn’t stay. He is 3/8, 6 places in C5 AW Handicaps. He is 2/9, 5 places OR 70 or below on AW. The trainer is a bit cold – 1/37 in last 14 days. So, some positives, some unknowns and some negatives. Do with that what you will!
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34 Responses
Keep em Comin Josh – Superb tipping again today
Thank you Josh nice winner today
Well done josh you are in from hope it lasts for Cheltenham
I think we can all predict what may happen now! But, plenty of points to play with.
Well done Josh, superb tipping.
Great work Josh.
Another great result again today josh,well done!your work ethic and attention to detail is there for everyone to see and the results are showing that,and long may it continue.The noise and signal book looks quite intresting ,always good to read up an these things in my view,anyways well done again today & all the best.
Great research again Josh. Well done
I think your thought processes and reasoning for selection are really sound. Everyone has to be really impressed with this.
Hi Josh,
Once again excellent race reading, not seen the race. Getting the value means that the losing run which will always happen will keep us in profit.
Thanks Josh. Keep up the good work.
Lingham
Well done Josh. Kudos to you.
Tony.
Donald McCain yard seems to have hit a bit of form,does well with chasers at Musselburgh,Court of Law in the 3.30 with Henry Brooke up at 8 and tom georges definitely better at 11/2 might be the value option of his runners there
Well done again Josh, missed yesterday due to work but can’t complain given recent returns. Glad to see the run continues!
Cheers Joe, ah sorry to hear that…I am trying to get more up the evening before, and Art Lord was up the night before on this occasion.
Get some coffee down you, Josh…610 is Kempton, mate.
Noted!! drinking as we speak. At least the time was right 🙂
Looks like the fav is coming out of the Elle Rebelle race…big bloody R4
I will be at Kempton tonight Josh with my horse Dragoon Guard (6.40) so will give Elle Rebelle an extra cheer home………hopefully
Ah good stuff. Good luck, i will be cheering yours on.
keep up the good work with 3m+ chases, had £25 win on russe blanc anyway, knew should have backed art lord! am backing all of them from now
Hi Joss, I have been following you for some time now, great articles and superb tipping. I noticed about 2 weeks ago that Mr Red Clubs (6:40 Kemp) was an eye catcher of yours. What do you think of its chances today? Running over 1m 3f for the first time I think. Handicap ploy?
Cheers Pat – thanks for highlighting him – he is sat there in my HRB account right in front of me, but i missed him for some reason. Thanks for highlighting, thoughts now above. Could well be running him to get mark down further, before returning to optimum conditions at Wolvs – but hard to say he definitely cant win and may be worth a small EW tickle at those odds to find out!
Thanks Joss, will have a couple of £s e/w. If it doesn’t win there is always next time!!
Indeed…he ran last time as if he wasnt far from striking, and if not today hopefully he is well drawn back at Wolvs NTO! Certainly handicapped to go in, and even more so with this jockey’s claim. GL.
Josh, I had a look at Proud Gamble on the HRB site and if you ask for odds between 4.33 and 11.00 we get 3 wins / 4 places from 11 runs. I would be slightly concerned that PG has drifted out to 16/1 now ?
?? are you referring to the horse with those odds? He has yet to win a race, and last time was the first time he went off at under 25/1. In terms of the trainer…Dobbin is 9/232, 31 places with all runners priced 14/1 -40/1…in chases with runners priced 14/1-20/1 she is 2/22, 5 places. So,w while they are hard to find she isnt a ‘there must be money’ trainer. I/we have all probably backed plenty of horses that have drifted/been weak and have won. Sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue! The negatives are fairly big – chasing inexperience/effectively first run back – but they clearly see him as a chaser, so we shall see.
ok thanks Josh , no I meant the Trainer. interesting to read your insight and your comment that she is not a money trainer . there is a facility on HRB – Odds Move% (Early v Open) which sometimes can be enlightening , have you used this ?. not in this case though from your comments !!
haha no i haven’t used that but am aware of it and that is an area for study – but with an angle like that you would need to be a market watcher.- in terms of following a group of trainers say. I suppose given my approach my first concern is to see whether the trainer has big priced winners – i just used the trainer profiler tool in HRB for those stats. Clearly when hers are backed that is more of a positive, (so, in that sense she is a money trainer!) but not necessarily a negative if they go unbacked. By ‘money trainer’ I meant there doesnt have to be money for hers to go well.
thanks for your reply Josh .
Solway Races look her horses,that duo is great yesterday i won 6/1 with her horse today ii won 25/1 with Solway Bay
Duo to follow
Winning TrainerMiss L Harrison
Winning JockeyC Bewley
Well done Pab, not a bad priced winner! If you have some stats that would add to your analysis that would be great! And, next time tell me before he bolts up so I can get on haha – seriously, don’t hold back on any thoughts/punts pre race for fear of putting up one that drops out the back of the tv – I am more than accustomed to that!
The combination of Lisa Harrison and Connor Bewley before today were 5/49 showing a loss of 21.25 points at Industry SP…romped into profit now obviously but I wouldn’t say they have a track record of ‘greatness’ previously!
I follow Miss L Harrison horses,next are 25 Presented and Will Hill,i had already two wins with Wll
But her horses are much better on Flat Races