UPDATE: Well I have upped my ‘notebooking’ game this jumps season and with the likes of Art Lord and Russe Blanc it is starting to pay off. You can’t beat watching races and when you only focus on one race type it does help – well it helps me anyway!
I don’t know if he would have won if the horse upsides him hadn’t fallen – too far out to tell – but that is why 1. I don’t get too irate when I back a last fence faller etc, it does even out over time…2. the importance of track position. The jockey on the faller made a decision to close down the leader before that fence and I think he attacked it too fast. He was unproven over the trip and while he looked to be going well, Art Lord hadn’t been asked for any effort. Anyway, I don’t really care, a winner is a winner and it keeps the good run going.
(i think that takes the tips to +57 points in the last 19 days, and ‘the portfolio’ to +200 points in just over 5.5 months. That was my 12 month target for ‘the portfolio’ so I think we are ahead of schedule!)
TIPS 3.10 Newbury Achimota – 1.5 point win – 7/1 general FORECAST – 0.5 point – No. 9 to beat No.5 (5/2-7/1)
Abandoned. Damn. Assumed that would go ahead. That is a couple of hours I will never get back!
No potential qualifiers.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(remember these are not tips)
1.10 Muss – Proud Gamble – 16/1 – Dobbin is 3/13, 5 places (or was before season started) with her handicap chasers at the track. In what looks a weak race at first glance, he is in the ‘could be anything ‘ box. He didn’t get very far last time on chase debut so will need to jump better – but everything to date screams that he wants a trip. I always like when connections don’t mess around over hurdles for too long, indicating they clearly think they have a chaser on their hands. The trainer is in ok form, 5 recent runners, one placed, and I believe it was one of hers that loomed up next to Art Lord yesterday. So, if he jumps well, I think he will out run his odds. The other negative is that this could be viewed as his seasonal debut again, given how early he fell LTO. So fitness, and whether he will pull again (too fresh) would also be concerns. All built into the price for me. Either way, given his profile, he is one to keep onside over fences up north. I suspect they will get wins out of him.
Muss KEMPT!- Elle Rebelle – 8/1 – Trainer and Jockey are 3/6, 4 places when teaming up in handicaps at the track. Morris is 2/7, 5 places on this horse. The last run was her first over this distance and it looks like she could improve further for it. She looks an interesting runner here.
6.40 Kempton – Mr Red Clubs– 12/1 – was an eye-catcher LTO that I missed this morning, apologies. Writing this at 11.21 (cheers Pat!) He was noted down as travelling well on his second run after a break and running well considering he was trapped very wide and must have lost quite a few lengths over the trip. He has been best at Wolvs to date but has won here. He goes over a new trip for the first time and there is not enough evidence on the track to suggest that he definitely will not stay- certainly not at this class. When they fail at a higher level over a similar trip it is hard to know whether they were just outclassed, or just didn’t stay. He is 3/8, 6 places in C5 AW Handicaps. He is 2/9, 5 places OR 70 or below on AW. The trainer is a bit cold – 1/37 in last 14 days. So, some positives, some unknowns and some negatives. Do with that what you will!