Big Race Preview (a Tip)
Folsom Blue – 1 point EW – 9/1 UP (disappointing)
Well I decided to put a gun to my head (that comment will mean nothing if you missed my ‘holding note’ from last night about this race) and go with the one horse who looks sure to relish conditions and who stays all day. By the looks of his profile when you think he is done, he stays on again. This looks likely to be a test and having convinced myself he wont be out the top 4 (with luck in running,completing) I see no reason now not to back him – indeed given the form I am in, and the points we have in the bank just from 2016 to date, it would have been a bottle job to leave him on the side.
This horse has won a National trial at Punchestown over 3m4f, he ran a cracker last time out over 1f shorter when leading before the last when he was passed, but then rallied again and was staying on. Indeed 10 of the previous winners of this since 1997 ran at Leopardstown LTO. He is 3/5, 5 places on heavy – the deeper the better – and he is the pick of Cooper. Given the advice he will have had, the jockeys he will have spoken to (who have ridden him), his experience on the horse and the professionalism of the operation – there is some significance there. Barring accidents we are sure to get a run for our money and he will be plodding on when others have given up. His first runs in his career under rules were also at this track, in two bumpers, and he placed in both running well – so the track is familiar to the horse. Another positive.
Having looked through the rest there is nothing else jumping out at me to be backed. Ucello Conti finished ahead of the selection LTO so clearly can be given a shout. He had every chance there when it looked like he may have been outstayed late, and this extra furlong should play to the strengths of the selection and help reverse form. Mala Beach has a chance clearly, but does need to prove a liking for a real slog over fences. He stayed well in the mud over hurdles, but this isnt a hurdle race and on what they have done to date, in these conditions, on the track, I am much more confident that FB will definitely relish them. Ballycasey is the obvious one, but despite his record fresh,and that of the trainer in this race it will be some effort to carry that weight, in this ground, over this trip on his seasonal reappearance. If he does it then fair enough, but enough doubt for me.
So, we have a proven mud lark on side who stays all day. I think that is just what we are going to need in what could be a very a war of attrition.
(not derived from stats/trends as a way in)
Shockingtimes – 1 point win – 10/1 UP (ah, bad jumper,smaller field required!)
Golden Chieftain – 1 point win – 14/1 –WON 14/1
I will start with Golden Chieftain who looks to be fairly weak in the market – that may be a case of money coming for others though. When on song he is a smart horse and he has been running very well this season. He drops back into C3 here and this will be easier than his last two runs – two decent veteran’s chases. The last race was a right old slog and not many completed – but he did, and kept plugging on for 4th. I don’t think this ground will be as heavy as that day, and this race is nowhere near as deep. He stays well and ‘normal’ heavy is fine. I tries to lead/race prominently and he should be able to have the position he wants. The fav likes to get on with it as well. If he can stay in touch he should out-run his odds. There is a chance that last race took quite a bit out of him but the odds allow the chance – as does the fact that he can mentally switch off every now and then – as evidenced by the changes/combos of headgear over the years. But, don’t forget, he won a Festival handicap and while not as good as then, still has a touch of class – certainly in a c3.
Shockingtimes – well he is unexposed and that price appeared big to me. He won at the track LTO, his first try in soft over a trip like this. He relished it. He will need to step up again and prove a liking for heavy – but at that price, given his profile, I found it hard to leave him. This big field also poses a new challenge but he should be fine. A big run looks on the cards to me.
Well, there are a few more unexposed ones in here – Dawson City is clearly well regarded, will like the ground and will stay. But, he does need to go and win a chase, this his 3rd start, and in that context 10/3 is plenty short enough. If he dots up then fine but I am content not to be taking that price in a race like this. Money has been coming all morning for Krackatoa King – he is unexposed and could be anything. This though is his second chase start and he didnt do much on his return. He will stay and the ground will be fine. If he completes/jumps well, he could be the one, but I generally like to have those on side with some winning chase form. Maybe 10s allows the chance but he does need to step up. Leo Luna won some really weak novice chases and is now 0/9, 2 places RH. He likes the mud but is top weight which could be tough. Again, I want to see more in open company in chases. But, he is another with an unexposed profile and it is never a complete shock when one of those goes in. For one reason or another I am happy to take on the rest.
So, a couple of decent priced horses onside. Every horse in here has some kind of question or two to answer but I think these two should give us a run for our money. If one of the very unexposed, could be anything, chasers goes in then fair enough.
That is all for ‘Tips’
1.35 Winc: Kap Jazz (any odds) UP
2.10 Win: Ballinvarrig (12/1<) / Alder Mairi (10/1<) 3rd/Fell
3.20 Winc: Leviathan (any odds) UP
3.55 Winc: Sidbury Hill (10/1<) 3rd 7/1>3/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(reminder this is a ‘test’ section and the general aim is to highlight big priced horses likely to go well based on stats/pace profile/horse profile – these are not tips and I would definitely not advise backing them all systematically yet – I am confident they will highlight the odd 16/1+ winner every now and then, and will come out in profit, but the evidence is not there yet to support that confidence!)
3.20 Winc – Eddiemaurice -20/1 – 4th (a close 4th, bugger – am loading up the wheelbarrow for when he goes to Uttoxter on good ground in Summer!) was an ‘eye-catcher’ on his penultimate start when looming up before I though Leicester’s stiff finish got to him. In his last race, back at the track, I was far from certain he would handle heavy ground, but it looks like he did. Again, he plugged on well. He is in form and today races on a much flatter track, with no steep hill to climb up at the end. I have backed him EW at 20s as I think a repeat of that last run should see him in the mix here. Leviathan is in the same race and I have backed both. There is an unexposed Nicholls horse leading the market – and after being up and down the stable may be hitting some more consistent form – so we shall see how he goes – he looks weak in the market at the moment.
That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets.