Members Report: 21/01/16 (COMPLETE)

Big Race Preview (a Tip)

3.10 Gowran 

Folsom Blue – 1 point EW – 9/1  UP (disappointing)

Well I decided to put a gun to my head (that comment will mean nothing if you missed my ‘holding note’ from last night about this race) and go with the one horse who looks sure to relish conditions and who stays all day. By the looks of his profile when you think he is done, he stays on again. This looks likely to be a test and having convinced myself he wont be out the top 4 (with luck in running,completing) I see no reason now not to back him – indeed given the form I am in, and the points we have in the bank just from 2016 to date, it would have been a bottle job to leave him on the side.

This horse has won a National trial at Punchestown over 3m4f, he ran a cracker last time out over 1f shorter when leading before the last when he was passed, but then rallied again and was staying on. Indeed 10 of the previous winners of this since 1997 ran at Leopardstown LTO. He is 3/5, 5 places on heavy – the deeper the better – and he is the pick of Cooper. Given the advice he will have had, the jockeys he will have spoken to (who have ridden him), his experience on the horse and the professionalism of the operation – there is some significance there. Barring accidents we are sure to get a run for our money and he will be plodding on when others have given up. His first runs in his career under rules were also at this track, in two bumpers, and he placed in both running well – so the track is familiar to the horse. Another positive. 

Having looked through the rest there is nothing else jumping out at me to be backed. Ucello Conti finished ahead of the selection LTO so clearly can be given a shout. He had every chance there when it looked like he may have been outstayed late, and this extra furlong should play to the strengths of the selection and help reverse form. Mala Beach has a chance clearly, but does need to prove a liking for a real slog over fences. He stayed well in the mud over hurdles, but this isnt a hurdle race and on what they have done to date, in these conditions, on the track, I am much more confident that FB will definitely relish them. Ballycasey is the obvious one, but despite his record fresh,and that of the trainer in this race it will be some effort to carry that weight, in this ground, over this trip on his seasonal reappearance. If he does it then fair enough, but enough doubt for me. 

So, we have a proven mud lark on side who stays all day. I think that is just what we are going to need in what could be a very a war of attrition. 

***

TIP

(not derived from stats/trends as a way in)

2.45 Wincanton 

Shockingtimes – 1 point win – 10/1 UP (ah, bad jumper,smaller field required!)

Golden Chieftain – 1 point win – 14/1 –WON 14/1

I will start with Golden Chieftain who looks to be fairly weak in the market – that may be a case of money coming for others though. When on song he is a smart horse and he has been running very well this season. He drops back into C3 here and this will be easier than his last two runs – two decent veteran’s chases. The last race was a right old slog and not many completed – but he did, and kept plugging on for 4th. I don’t think this ground will be as heavy as that day, and this race is nowhere near as deep. He stays well and ‘normal’ heavy is fine. I tries to lead/race prominently and he should be able to have the position he wants. The fav likes to get on with it as well. If he can stay in touch he should out-run his odds. There is a chance that last race took quite a bit out of him but the odds allow the chance – as does the fact that he can mentally switch off every now and then – as evidenced by the changes/combos of headgear over the years. But, don’t forget, he won a Festival handicap and while not as good as then, still has a touch of class – certainly in a c3. 

Shockingtimes – well he is unexposed and that price appeared big to me. He won at the track LTO, his first try in soft over a trip like this. He relished it. He will need to step up again and prove a liking for heavy – but at that price, given his profile, I found it hard to leave him. This big field also poses a new challenge but he should be fine. A big run looks on the cards to me. 

The opposition…

Well, there are a few more unexposed ones in here – Dawson City is clearly well regarded, will like the ground and will stay. But, he does need to go and win a chase, this his 3rd start, and in that context 10/3 is plenty short enough. If he dots up then fine but I am content not to be taking that price in a race like this. Money has been coming all morning for Krackatoa King – he is unexposed and could be anything. This though is his second chase start and he didnt do much on his return. He will stay and the ground will be fine. If he completes/jumps well, he could be the one, but I generally like to have those on side with some winning chase form. Maybe 10s allows the chance but he does need to step up. Leo Luna won some really weak novice chases  and is now 0/9, 2 places RH. He likes the mud but is top weight which could be tough. Again, I want to see more in open company in chases. But, he is another with an unexposed profile and it is never a complete shock when one of those goes in. For one reason or another I am happy to take on the rest. 

So, a couple of decent priced horses onside. Every horse in here has some kind of question or two to answer but I think these two should give us a run for our money. If one of the very unexposed, could be anything, chasers goes in then fair enough. 

***

That is all for ‘Tips’

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Micro Systems 

Jan Trainers

1.35 Winc: Kap Jazz (any odds) UP

2.10 Win: Ballinvarrig (12/1<) / Alder Mairi (10/1<) 3rd/Fell

3.20 Winc: Leviathan (any odds) UP

3.55 Winc: Sidbury Hill (10/1<) 3rd 7/1>3/1

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(reminder this is a ‘test’ section and the general aim is to highlight big priced horses likely to go well based on stats/pace profile/horse profile – these are not tips and I would definitely not advise backing them all systematically yet – I am confident they will highlight the odd 16/1+ winner every now and then, and will come out in profit, but the evidence is not there yet to support that confidence!)

3.20 Winc – Eddiemaurice -20/1 – 4th (a close 4th, bugger – am loading up the wheelbarrow for when he goes to Uttoxter on good ground in Summer!)  was an ‘eye-catcher’ on his penultimate start when looming up before I though Leicester’s stiff finish got to him. In his last race, back at the track, I was far from certain he would handle heavy ground, but it looks like he did. Again, he plugged on well. He is in form and today races on a much flatter track, with no steep hill to climb up at the end. I have backed him EW at 20s as I think a repeat of that last run should see him in the mix here. Leviathan is in the same race and I have backed both. There is an unexposed Nicholls horse leading the market – and after being up and down the stable may be hitting some more consistent form – so we shall see how he goes – he looks weak in the market at the moment. 

***

That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. Hi josh
    There’s a coupe I spotted for wincanton under your heavy ground trainers list,, both of nicholls. 135 present man,,, 320 all set to go.
    Both look thrown in ,,,

    1. Hi, yep they are – I don’t post those qualifiers unless it is quiet day and they are a ‘bonus’ – odds rather short on former, and latter taking a walk in market. In theory both look thrown in and would expect them to go well.

  2. The Harry Whittington/Gavin Sheehan link up in the 1.35 and 2.45 is quite profitable,Zephyros Bleu may be an improver,Big Society ran an awful race last time but has cheekpieces back on,might be a play on exchanges as he runs lazily

    1. Yep, the former could be anything on handicap debut and certainly looks interesting. Big Society has the ability to win this, just whether he puts it all together. Can get detached, you are right headgear will help again, and needs some coaxing, but could out run his odds. Dont much fancy him for a battle though if it comes to it.

  3. I thought Tales of Milan 245W was a stand out bet @20/1 and nabbed that a minute before it was cut to 14s. Conditions are perfect and Harry claims.
    By the same token when I saw Renard 210W was 8/1 last night I ‘invested’ immediately.
    Never thought to do the double, which was foolish.
    I’ll just say that if there was a turn up in 135W then I hope Rendl Beach is the one, if ‘fresh’ is the key?

    1. Good Luck Chris…ah yes can see why you have gone with Renard…he is my HRB tracker as a ‘profile’ horse, C3, 1-11 runners, Autumn best, but has won in Jan – ticks plenty of boxes, PU can be excused , looks sure to run a big race by the looks of things. I have missed the 8s mind – two micro horses seem to be on drift.

  4. Cheers Josh. New follower question. Do you always go the full point each way? I asked Hugh Taylor that once and he said he couldn’t propose half points on ATR’s scoring system (but that was what he really was suggesting, reading between the lines).
    Paul

    1. Hi Paul, good question (i do need to do some ‘back to basics’ posts on why I do what I do etc – also aware that new people to racing in general may not even be aware about ‘points/banks’ etc etc) But thats for another day..

      In short, yes I do now. I will rarely bet EW unless there are 4 places available and very rarely, if ever, below 8/1. The reason for this is because over the course of a calendar year I have a habit of finding big priced winners (3-8 say, 25/1+) (already at 2 since start December for example) and last year (well Aug 2014 to Sept 2015 say) I bet a lot of them 1/2 point EW bets – and I was just throwing away points – indeed just by betting 1 point EW, as opposed to 0.5 EW , would have won me 60-80 more points I believe, if not more. That is a lot of profit wasted. yes the investment is doubled but the profit makes up for that. Also – I back myself to find a handful a year, and they are rare/hard to find, and you really do want to be paid on them. I backed Oscar Time (33/1) and Wayward Prince (33/1) last jumps season for example, and was immediately disappointed for only having 1/2s on!
      The other side to that is that I also hit the board with a few biggies as well. A 33/1 placed horse is around a 7/1 winner if you bet 1pt EW, and they all add up as well. Spending 2 hours looking at a race to then not get paid as much as you could have, just by staking, is annoying.

      So, in general, when 4 places up for grabs I will bet EW when 1. The odds are juicy on the place side 2. I am very confident of the horse placing at worst (like today)

  5. Delighted you changed your mind about the Thyestes Josh, I went thru it myself last night and came up with the same selection. Great minds n all that!

  6. Hi josh,finding the Thyestes a tough nut to crack to be honest,with so many potential stat busters,ended up putting a point(£20) on vics canvas on the 4 place market @ 5.2,13 years old which will put a lot of people off but think he’ll run his own race and has plenty of graded form in the book & like Folsom Blue,is sired by old vic which can only help in these conditions,hopefully he’ll get around and i get a run for my money.best of luck.

    1. Yep well you can tell from my earlier notes that I was finding it tough to crack – a lot of unexposed ones in here also – but in the end I think we will want a mud lover/a grinder/a true stayer – and FB ticks all those boxes. Good luck with VC, suspect you will get a run for your money with him – repeats that Sandown run back end of last season and he may not be too far away.

  7. will also have a saver on Royal Palladium in the 2.45 – partly because I’ve been scared the last few times a Venetia horse has been travelling sweetly up front without my money on it

    And also because of the first big feature race of this season at this track a few starts ago when he gallantly chased Drop Out Joe to the line – and that was a Listed event. So beer money on Royal Palladium for me in the hope that the sharp rise up the handicap hasn’t caught up with him yet

  8. Damn, just been trolled by Pipe.

    Had a serious look at Pilgrims Bay as I have a system going at the moment looking at Pipe’s runners over 2m5f or so this month into feb/march.

    Pilgrims Bay fitted the system, but I chose to leave partly due to the promise of the Fav and Pipe’s modest record with Hcap debutants. The main reason I left him however was because of the form of Pipe’s stable, going by the last 2 weeks. Then look what Pilgrims Bay went and did!

    It begs the question: how lightly should we take stable form?

    1. Stable form can always be a mystery, and at the end of the day comes down to price. It has taken me a while to view a bet on a 16/1 shot with same mindset as one that is 4/1 – if I think it has a chance, it has a chance (or system etc) and if value it is value. Using the same thought process for a race I used to put more on a 4/1 shot than a 12/1 shot say simply because of its price. That is no way to go imo, not long term, esp if you back your judgement.

      At 16s I would have probably put something on! With systems, I think you need to ask whether there is any reason why he definitely cant wiin (well as definite as you can get – ie 0/10, 0 places over 3m+ in ideal conditions, ground perfect ect) and if not then have something on. But, if you are just tracking this system – work out how many losers you have missed to make yourself feel better!

      Stables will always come out of form at some point, you just have to track them. I would never just be put off by stable form if I liked the horse and I though price accounted for poor form. Same with track form and Jockeys – Charlie Posts was 3/60 off at Warwick when riding Russe Blanc – but he can ride and probably hasnt ridden many there in with a winning chance. 25s allowed me to ignore that stat somewhat.

      As always with systems, track them, and there is a few months left and always next year! I need to dive into Pipe as another reader (Allan or Gerry maybe, I forget) highlighted Pipes decent record historically at this time of year, into Feb

      1. Yes, just noticed his Feb stats too, so will hopefully make up for this miss then

        The system did have a 12/1 ‘limit’, so I guess that was another factor

        But anyway, thanks for your grain of sand as always and the Golden Chieftain win certainly takes the edge off!

    2. An outfit like David Pipe’s don’t stay out of form forever – its actually a bonus when they have a bad trot because the odds go up on their runners, plus those horses that ran in the bad patch will be getting better handicapped. Its a different story with the 4 winners a year merchants, they might have three 25/1 winners out of the four but its entirely random, they are basically hobbyists!

  9. Its been one of those years where usually you would have a hatfull of pipe and nicholls winners in your records.The pipe horses I have backed have been scarce and scarcer still any nicholls winners,maybe its just been the softer going this year,had a hatfull of venetia williams and a few from Kerry lee instead,maybe its a levelling out process

  10. Very well done again Josh with Golden Chieftain. Got 17.51/1 on BFSP. I’m starting to think that you must have a ‘mole’ in most of the racing stables. Thanks again

    1. Ah yes so he is, cant have ticked the ‘notify’ box in my HRB account. – Yep that price is short and don’t think he has been any bigger. He was rather too green LTO to take that price maybe, and a bigger field may have helped him settle. Happy to watch but he was backed LTO as if he would win on the bridle, so if he shows on the track what he clearly is at home, then that may look a big price!

  11. Can’t back him at the price, if he wins good luck to all who backed him. Well done with Golden Chieftain had a modest e/w on him,

  12. Doubled my stakes on golden chieftan as I had it as reasonable bet on my own stats …excellent stuff Josh maybe we are on the same wavelength ..well sometimes lol

    1. Ah good stuff, a double staked 14/1 winner is always nice! Ha…hopefully my wavelength is a bit clearer/understandable and hopefully no confusion now as to what is,and is not, a tip! There will always be reasoning behind my bets so you can conclude whether I have lost the plot or not!

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