Members Report: 22/01/15 (COMPLETE)

Thanks for all of your comments, I never tire of reading them!

Another decent day at the ‘3m+ chase slog in the mud‘ office as Golden Chieftain rolled back the years and helped add another +11 points to the tipping pot. He really does like bowling along in front and I really do think he would have won that regardless of the error of the second as he does keep plugging on and there were still a couple of fences left. But, his relentless gallop put the two inexperienced horses behind him under pressure. If that third placed horse learns to jump he could be some animal. He needs a wide open galloping track. The way they both ran is a perfect example of why, in general, I don’t like backing horses with that kind of profile in a race like this. 

EddieMaurice stays in the tracker after a gallant effort. Heavy is not ideal and he will need to be extremely well placed now to win in those conditions. He has hurdle wins in him, during the summer on better ground maybe. 

Folsom Blue – well not much to say. Poor. On paper a good bet. Cant’t win them all though I suppose 🙂 

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TIP 

2.10 Chepstow

Loughalder – 1.5 point win – 16/1 (BV/Coral) 14/1 general.(market not fully formed)

West of The Edge – 1 point win – 14/1 (general)

ABANDONED – Bloody weather. Next time! 

I will jump straight to it – if the real Loughalder shows up I think he bounces out the front here, jumps superbly and gallops them all into submission. As such, I had to back him at 16s and I have a feeling he won’t go off that price come race time – if he does then we may be in trouble. 

Lets start with the big negative the PU last time. ‘We’ backed both of these horses LTO and they both failed to complete. I expected Loughalder to go close at Warwick. He was travelling well enough but then lost his backend/action when going over a road crossing/making a turn. He never looked happy after this and was looked after from there on in. Now, if that was the actual problem, and returning 22 days later suggests there are no physical issues, then we should get a right good run for our money from the front end. In handicap chases he is…

3/5, 4 places at Chepstow, 2/9, 5 places in heavy,3/8, 5 places over 3m but also does stay much further, has impressive winning form in the class above this,runs off 108 – his last winning mark – having hit OR122, 4-8 when returning within 16-30 days. He also tends to peak from January onwards. 

This is all about whether he runs his race. If he does, hold on tight. 

West Of The Edge…ran no sort of race whatever last time out. It was so bad, after an impressive stroll in the race before, that I am minded to just put a line through it. He stays well and maybe wants further, but this is a weaker race than last time and his winning pilot from that day returns. He was in no rythm from the beginning LTO and gets cheekpieces here. There is still plenty more to come from him in a slog I think. Now, clearly if he repeats his last run that is 1 point lost. But, those worries are built into his price. If he repeats his Market Raisen run, he won’t run like a 14/1 shot. I still think he may prefer going the other way round as well,but again, happy to fire one more bullet at those odds. 

The opposition…

Well most come here with plenty to prove. There are a few bigger ones lurking at the bottom it is hard to totally dismiss and I wonder whether an upset is on the  cards. I will get to them shortly.

Call The Detective has a favourites chance but is short enough for me. He hacked up in a weak C5 chase where only 2 of the 6 finished. I don’t know what to make of that form. At face value then he will clearly go well. Young, progressive, if he wins then no shock, but happy to take him on. Long John looked interesting but I have real stamina concerns. On his sire’s side he should stay, I think the weakness comes from the damn’s side – not much stamina there. He won well over 19f, travelled well for most of the way over 24f before tiring with a few to go. Happy for him to prove me wrong. 

Wellforth and Our Island are the two lurkers. The latter runs for new connections and should be fit having been Point to Pointing, but I dont think he has done much in that sphere. He is moody, BUT, if he ran up to his best rules form, would have a chance here. It is a big If though. Wellforth is 12yo now and hasn’t done much over hurdles for new connections. But, he is another whose best chase form would give him a shout. Conditions for both are fine. However they are both really out of form and a big leap of faith is required. I may throw some £2.5 (0.125 of a point for me) at the pair BFSP. Maybe. 

I really couldn’t justify backing any of the others on what they have done to date or their suitability for race conditions. I dont like backing horses returning after ‘iffy’ breaks in races like this, esp when the mud is flying – that’s the concern for Copper B and Castarine. The latter is unexposed and if fully fit would have a chance given that profile. 

So, I am playing two decent priced horses who I am hoping (expecting with the former in truth) to return to some kind of form. If they do, we should be entertained for quite a bit of the journey, and that is all I ever hope for! 🙂 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jan Trainers

2.40 Chep – Drumviredy (any)

3.30 MR – Palm Grey (16/1<)

Jumps Handicappers

1.50 MR – Ourmanmassini (20/1<) 

2.55 MR – Gold Ingot (12/1<)

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(remember these are NOT tips)

3.30 MR – Captain Kelly – 11/1 – looks interesting given Dan Skelton’s record with newcomers from other yards – 15/44 in the last year, 27/76 in the last two years, 3/7, 5 places at the track. This ex Nicholl’s inmate has been off for 850 odd says but I suspect he will be fit enough here. He is still relatively lightly raced and could be very well handicapped. In what looks an open race, 11/1 could turn out to be generous enough albeit the market may guide. 

4.00 MR – Moon Arc – 11/1 / 10/1 – His trainer is 3/6 with his NH handicap debutants in the last two years and his yard is also in good nick, 4/19 in the last 30 days. This is quite a way to send one -269 miles to be precise- and he has only had one runner here before (unplaced) The racing post comment says they would have liked to have seen more in his three juvenile hurdle runs – well he was sent off at 25/1, 66/1 and 40/1 – not odds where I would have expected to see a lot! The 50 day break is intriguing with this type of horse – maybe a wind op, but definitely plenty of time to get him race fit, which I may suggest he wasnt before. 11/1 is an ok price and I have had a small nibble to see if he has plenty in hand, or just isnt very good. 

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That is all for today.