Members Report: 19/01/16 (COMPLETE)


UPDATE: Well I have upped my ‘notebooking’ game this jumps season and with the likes of Art Lord and Russe Blanc it is starting to pay off. You can’t beat watching races and when you only focus on one race type it does help – well it helps me anyway! 

I don’t know if he would have won if the horse upsides him hadn’t fallen – too far out to tell – but that is why 1. I don’t get too irate when I back a last fence faller etc, it does even out over time…2. the importance of track position. The jockey on the faller made a decision to close down the leader before that fence and I think he attacked it too fast. He was unproven over the trip and while he looked to be going well, Art Lord hadn’t been asked for any effort. Anyway, I don’t really care, a winner is a winner! 

(i think that takes the tips to +57 points in the last 19 days, and ‘the portfolio’ to +200 points in just over 5.5 months. That was my 12 month target for ‘the portfolio’ so I think we are ahead of schedule!) 




3.40 Ayr

Art Lord – 1 point win – 10/1 (Lad, not BOG until morning sometime), 9/1 (BV) WON 7/1 (recorded as 9/1, 10s with Lad all evening, and with BV this morning for a time) 


Well I think I tipped/backed this one last time out and I am going to give him another go here. He made a sloppy error last time when travelling very powerfully. The fact he returns 15 days later suggests he is none the worse and it wasnt a heavy fall – it may even help him mentally. He handled soft/heavy ground over shorter in Ireland no problem and I backed him last time due to his unexposed profile over this trip. There is every chance he improves for it, which looked to be the case LTO. The trainer knows how to train handicap chasers – 6/24, 13 places in previous 730 days. He is doing something different and is unexposed for his age, this only his 12th chase start. Hopefully he completes, and if he does we should get a run for our money. 

As Leon points out below there is stamina in his pedigree, plenty of his sire’s offspring have got a trip, and this ground. His recent form over shorter is also quite good for the level. 

The Opposition…

There are a lot of older horses in this race and quite a few coming here after breaks of one sort or another. Cobajayisland has had 75 days off and I have no idea why, i think there can only have been a hold up. He has been kept to decent ground as well which would raise concerns over the going. However, he hasn’t proved he can’t handle it, but 4s may be short in the context of break/ground. But he is progressive. Trainer is 3/37 in last 30 days which is also a concern. Blue Kascade only ever seems to run well fresh and should go in all our trackers for his seasonal return next season! I should think that is why he has had another break, but he usually needs longer looking at his profile to date. But, clearly if he repeats his last run he is going to go very close. He may have competition for the lead also. My Friend George has stamina questions on this ground and is 0/6, 1 place OR91+, 3/7, 4 places OR90 or below (ratings dropper to follow?..)…and Chavoy looks a bit out of sorts. His was a laboured 3rd LTO. But, he is well handicapped with the claim and does like the track. His jumping can be iffy and I would have wanted to see a tad more last time. If he tries to lead again he will be taken on. I have deliberated him at 7s but have left him, I hope not to my error, as he is a proven slogger. The jockey booking intrigued me also, and not really in a good way, albeit he is talented enough. 

For one reason or another I can’t have the rest. It does feel like an open race but we should get a run for our money and he is a decent enough price. 

PACE – there looks to be plenty of it if a few adopt recent running tactics. There are 4 or 5 who like to get on with it and hopefully the selection can just track the pace and pounce over the last couple.


That will be all for tips. ‘Specialising’ in these 3m+ handicap/graded chases is working rather well this jumps season and I don’t plan on changing anytime soon. 



No potential qualifiers.



(remember these are not tips, and this section is a bit experimental, trying to find some stats/pace/profile angles that highlight bigger priced horses who may go well)

2.20 South- Rupert Boy – 11/1 – a potential front runner here who could stay out all the way. He has the highest speed figure from those that I use (geegeez racecards) and so far in career has always tried to lead. He has been consistent but is of most interest because of the step up in trip. He is bred to get 7f and it looks like it is worth a go. Hopefully he gets an easy lead and if he does relish the trip could see them all off. In truth I don’t really get on with the AW, not my thing at all, and he will now probably be held up out the back! 🙂 


 That is all for today. As always, you know the blog is complete when COMPLETE is in the heading, which will be no later than 10am on day of racing, Mon-Friday, 11am at weekends. 


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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

80 Responses

    1. right that will do, thanks guys. I may as well give 5 prizes now, so those last two winners have Paul and Lee to thank! Thanks again.

  1. Interested in reading your write up on Art Lord Josh. Backed it last time when travelling well when fell. Form of its race at Musselburgh on 7th dec working out very well when finished 3rd, staying on well. 1,2,4 from that race ended up top 3 next time out at Musselburgh over 2m4. Mark of 106 looks exploitable and also has staying pedigree.

    1. well you could have written the write up Leon, you have covered all the main points. That race over 2m4 when staying on did have some good horses in for the level. Just whether he can stay on his feet and whether that fall affects him mentally. I think I backed/tipped him as well, and it was clear after 2f he would be going close – you can tell sometimes by a way a horse is travelling – a bit like the Henry Oliver system winner over the weekend, he was another who looked likely to go close a long way from home. Let’s hope he jumps – LH and ground may help with that. Worth chancing at odds.

  2. Thanks Josh, just thought I’d add my thoughts to a cracking blog. Your LSPs have been impressive these past few months. Fingers crossed and good luck for tomorrow, I was going to leave the race alone given his fall lto but I’ll be backing him after reading your analysis. Will certainly be interesting to see how they play Art Lord in the race as there are a few that like to front run / track the pace (including Art Lord), after a quick look using the geegeez tool.

    1. Cheers Leon, well your thoughts are always welcome on these pages. Yes has been a good few weeks since November, and in truth a good time all round since November 2014, i won’t complain, but will keep working hard to build on it. You will rarely find perfect 9/1 shots to back and at those odds, for me in the context of this race, was more than enough to overlook that slight niggle. If he falls he falls, but if he doesnt he should run like a 4/1 shot on what we have seen to date.
      Yep that pace tool is an essential for me these days. I suspect he will just sit off them, esp as they will want to get him into a jumping rhythm – would be suicidal to try and push the pace/lead, increasing chance of unseating/falling again.

  3. No problem Josh, appreciate your well rounded analysis in not only picking a selection but also analysing the competition in a race also makes a great read. It does look a weaker race than its last two outings on paper that’s for sure, and your comments about the fall lto in the context of the race have given me confidence in going in on Art Lord after having doubts.
    Totally agree with your thoughts on the racing strategy, hopefully Watters who’s a very capable jock lets the likes of cobayjayisland and my friend George go off against each other setting a decent pace and Art Lord tracks just off the pace to pick up the pieces if his stamina reserves see the trip out.

  4. Hi josh been doing some digging regarding hcap hurdles at cheltenham festival 2010-2015,, 30races 15 been won by either w mullins, nicholls or Henderson , we could factor in Elliott pipe and Jefferson to bring it to 21/30′ but I like the angle of the first 3′ but blindly backing king who has had 1 winner but shed loads of placed horses , I did see your angle before last years festival, last yrs results further backed it up,, but there’s definitely another angle in following king . Elliott has had 2 bit priced winners and also lots of placed horses,,,, there may be a fair few runners but between mullins, nicholls, hendo, for win purposes and Elliott and king for placed purposes there’s big profits with big priced winners…

    1. Yep a few ways in. My mind still on the trends/stats, will dig out the general angles from last season and look again in a couple weeks. Keep sharing what you find. My mind slowly turning towards Cheltenham!

  5. hi josh
    ive backed your art lord I noted it last time it run was running well untell falling after reading your write up decided to back it one I like to put up for tomorrow is a little bit dusty in the 4.00 southwell I like speed ratings this horse as got some good ratings over c/d not be running to well over the jumps lately but its last few races on the aw have thrown up a fair few winners could run well in a weak race 10/1 bet 365
    ps you got any thoughts on speed ratings I prefer to use them on the longer distance races on the flat as opposed to the sprint races I find them more realiable over a distance other people might disagree with that but I find different takes on things informative antony

    1. Speed ratings…well before Matt introduced them on his geegeez racecards i didn’t really engage with speed etc. I use those ratings and the ratings in HorseRacebase as a guide, and part of my overall consideration. I don’t really know how those ones are composed, or how useful they are when a horse is doing something different. Art Lord, for example, doesnt have great ratings in HRB or Speed ratings – but I assume those are based on his form to date – not sure how they can predict how he will do over 3m, given he has no completed form over that trip yet in which to make a proper judgement.
      But, if a lot of the horses are exposed and have been racing in similar conditions I find them a useful guide – albeit I will never just back a horse based on a good rating – i prefer the engagement with the horse profile and trainer behaviour, and have never been that mad on the numbers side of the game – sectionals etc etc – not really for me.
      There are more informed people that me on the area of speed, many of them may read this blog and wish to chip in!

      1. I’m in the middle of looking at the ratings on HRB to see what areas perform better or worse using 2 years of data. I have dreams of creating my own using HRB at some point which looks like incredibly hard work and time consuming. Has anyone else attempted this with HRB?

      2. I use inform speed ratings I find them quite usefull for shortlisting along with other factors like dis class going there not the be all and end all but I do find winners using them and losers I only started using them last year they have helped me improve my shortlisting and winners ratio from the shortlist

  6. Hi Josh,
    Looking at Art Lord’s dosage (Ben Aitken) it doesn’t look as though he will stay 3 miles. Dosage isn’t always right (Russ Blanc was an example of a poor
    Dosage) but that didn’t stop him winning
    It may well be the others in the race do not have any staying power either but I will check later

    1. HI Allan,
      Yes that can be a good guide, and as always you weigh up any perceived negatives against the price, and at 9/1 (he isnt a 3/1 shot) I am happy to take the chance. Visually, based on that run over 2m4f Muss, and how he was going LTO, it looks likely to suit, but he has to go and prove it. My betting is always developing and last year with this type I may have been a bit too wooden – ie he hasnt proven his stamina so its a no. But, you need a mixture in your armory and an approach where you do consider those ‘doing something different’.
      Dosage is just like another trend I suppose, there to be broken! He may well be outstayed, we shall see.
      RB was always going to stay based on visual impression – albeit that is easy for me to say in hindsight, although you know I thought he would and had been saying so all season.
      If the sandy thomspon horse repeats his last win he is the most likely winner on what they have don on the track, but there is a doubt there – even 80 odd days may be a too quick return for him!

    2. Think you’re right bud not been placed in 4x past 2 1/2 miles & his ts & rpr figs dwindle off thereafter too: (& his win/place prize money too)

      2m 4 1 0 0 £5,610 £5,610 95 112
      2m1f 2 0 1 0 £0 £1,171 103 114
      2m3f193y 1 0 0 1 £0 £763 68 109
      2m4f 5 1 0 0 £5,610 £5,610 46 121
      2m5f 2 0 0 0 £0 £0 27 71
      2m5f100y 1 0 0 0 £0 £0 — —
      2m7f170y 1 0 0 0 £0 £0 — —

  7. Best of luck with Rupert Boy,i will give him a miss, Southwell is not for me,Rupert Boys first 3 runs has a 2yo were awfull and he did not do to well when he first ran at Southwell got beat about 24L did a bit better next time there but led and got beat.Best of luck to everyone who has bet him,i will watch the race with interest,the one for me is Kemsing.Cheers Robert

    1. thanks Bob – yes, I quite echo those sentiments about Southwell – in truth I find the AW a hard nut to crack – and like with all codes etc if you don’t put the time in you get what you deserve – bar micro system bets I may play, I rarely open up an AW card raring to get stuck in! But, I know lots of people really enjoy it, and do very well from it. Maybe for next winter season I will get clued up on 5f/6f sprints, and have a go at sticking to those, getting to know the horses/trainers in depth etc.

      1. Could prove a good example for Back to Lay purposes – he’s 16.5 on exchanges now but but if he does try & make all again could trade less in running – I’ll let u know how I got on…..

        1. Well that worked a treat – tho unlucky on your behalf, could’ve had at 20/s took 19.5 & Layed for 13.50 for a 40% profit whatever & that was matched as soon as the stalls opened.

          I had a feeling that SpecialV was the one, her breeding suggested she would outstay these:

          Big Bad Bob (IRE) (8.7f) — Montbretia (Montjeu (IRE) (11.8f)) add the two awd’s / 2 = 10.5f

          Rupert Boy: [Frozen Power (IRE) (6.0f) — Curious Lashes (IRE) (Footstepsinthesand (8.1f))] add them awd / 2 =7f

          Hey Josh! You may well have unearthed yourself another useful skill in that identifying Back to Lay types – bit like this guy I came across yesterday his suggestion today is Bapak Bangsawan in 3.25

          1. Thanks for the Warlock website info

            a subject I don’t know much about…not even sure what Back-to-lay means in betting terms but an old dog needs to be taught new tricks


          2. if u look at his IN-Running Ratings page – there was only 1 5-Star rated Galleons Way – I backed & Layed for a profit on that & Bapak Bangsawan & Josh’s Art Lord would have been no problem too. Me always learning too, just starting out as a trader & that site, like this, seems a good find.

    1. Yes, Rupert is taking a rather large walk in the market. My beer money would have best been spent on beer by the looks of things!! Good Luck with yours.

    1. Hi Simon,

      Yes, that is the plan. I am just going to play around with layout/content, do an example track and share it, comments will be welcome – a bit more focused than the jumps version maybe, + some more micro angles etc.

      Aiming for mid/end April I suspect – just after Aintree. Earlier the better i know, season officially starts 2nd April – If I up my game that date may be possible!

    1. yep, a gutsy effort from him there, no complaints. Head on did look like he was carried across the track in last furlong, but in truth not sure was ever going to pass leader once headed, she was game. Drift of no concern in the end!

  8. Well done Josh what a great run Rupert gave you,i fancied Kemsing I think with a stronger jockey he would have won,i would like to see Rupert run at Chelmsford,i have put him in my tracker in case he turns up at Chelmsford and I don’t miss him.Cheers BoB

  9. Hi,guys has anyone here ever looked at “the signal and the noise” by nate silver?,seems a great read for anyone who’s into statistical analysis .

    1. Hi Robbie, no I personally haven’t, but have heard that book mentioned before and I should probably check it out.

  10. nice pick josh your on fire backed it to win and ew double with a little bit dusty just waiting for that one

  11. Great run from Art Lord well done again Josh,if theres a Tipsters Hall of Fame you would surely be in it.Thanks Again.BoB

  12. Just a quicky that book The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction by Nate Silver is on Amazon,they have the Kindle Edition has well,might check it out.Cheers BoB

  13. Nice one, Josh. I said in the survey that I possibly already follow too many, but you may just make me change my mind. New follower, extremely impressed.

    1. cheers Paul, and welcome. Hopefully you stick around! 🙂 Albeit, not every month is like this one, but been a good run since Christmas Day.

  14. clearly a good judge ” noted
    Been following recently,no disrespect as receive copious amounts of emails claiming know there stuff ‘ mostly fall away quicker than they arrived
    However,I’ve been impressed with your analysis and in depth reports. Clearly understanding the markets / as well as researching into various stats – played today’s 2 selections only for fun £5 e/w double 2nd 16s and a winner ☺️ Gained the place double / profit is profit
    Good luck as I’m sure 2016 will be a memorable one.

    1. Thanks Steve – yep I have developed an approach I am happy with when it comes to 3m+ handicap/graded chases and it has been a cracking jumps season so far. I don’t think I will repeat 2016s profit to date every 3 weeks, but I will try! I wont be going anywhere, and yes, there is a lot of sh*t out there. Glad you had a profitable day.

  15. A collective, thanks chaps. Glad you all had a piece. It’s been a rather surreal few weeks since Christmas! I don’t think we will get 9s on him next time!

  16. Fantastic result with Art Lord (if a little fortunate) and the race panned out as discussed last night on here. The step up really seemed to help his jumping I thought there!!

    1. Yep – maybe fortunate too early to tell, but can read my thoughts on that above. You make your own luck as they say! Yep, he jumped super, and would like to think he would have won that anyway! 🙂

  17. Hi Josh
    fantastic selection with Art Lord,you are reading the stats
    really well at the moment,its one in the eye to the people
    you were having a go at you a few months back.Looks like
    all the hard work you are putting in is coming to fruition now
    and thoroughly deserved.So from a Man U fan to a Liverpool
    fan I dont mind saying Yu Da Man Josh You Da Man !!!

    1. Cheers Dave – not many stats for that one in truth, not as a ‘way in’ anyway – just my developing ability in that race type, which has taken a couple of years in the making!

      In fairness, no one a few months ago was impolite, and at times during back end of last flat season I struggled a bit – and didnt have my approach to the blog nailed down etc – but, my focus has always been on long term profit. There will be another slump at some point, that is the nature of the game.

      Ah, two fans of fallen giants, slugging it out like past it, punch drunk heavyweights haha! Albeit, you were due a slump!

  18. Hi Josh

    Like some of the lads commenting above I too am a new follower as you will have guessed from my email. I wasnt on the two horses today but those results are mighty impressive for a Tuesday of racing. Unfortunately on Saturday I had foxbridge and russe blanc on my betting slip due to reading your column and the juicy plums email but at the very very very last second I took russe blanc off the bet slip as I didnt want to be investing a whole pile on such an open race. Lesson learned. Genuinely no reason why I chose foxbridge over russe blanc as price is never an issue for me and im still bewildered by me decision. Your results since I started following the blog have been super and I can back up what was said above about following too many and that you might change all that for me. Keep it up.


    1. hi Mike,
      Welcome, and thanks for your comments. This game is as much about the mind as anything else – it is amazing what confidence does and a healthy betting bank. Key I suppose is to get to stage where you dont care if you lose, and that way you make fewer bad decisions such as that – but we have all been there and done that, and I will do so again in future no doubt!

  19. & you’re right Josh, maybe it does pay to specialize, I wondered why u bothered with that hurdle from Leopardstown the other day but well done, I is promoting u to the top of my bookmarks, lol

    1. Ah, well you have to have a bit of variety – every now and then! I don’t mind the odd 2m hurdle/hurdle race if there are solid stats and trends – wont attack one without it – had a couple of winners for them in my Daily Punt Blog (8/1 + 11/2) and they are in profit!

      Well, in that case, I have made it now 🙂

  20. Great pick agian Josh. Something which potentially bears watching which I was going to mention yesterday is trainer after today is now 211624213FF1 with his UK raiders since the start of 2015 so whilst he doesnt bring many over they’re clearly deserve a second look when he does.

  21. As someone else has mentioned…

    I have promoted you on my Bookmarks list to be now on the BOOKMARK’S BAR……now that’s a promotion in any one’s estimation..Well Done Kiddo

    see what you have for us tomorrow ???

    1. Haha, cheers Norman, glad I have made the grade!

      There will likely be something in the 3.10Newbury. Just finsihing of the trends for the Pertemps Final at Chelts, and then will have a look!

  22. Please put a halt to this incredible winning streak or at least throw in a few more losers to make it look more natural……If this continues for much longer you’re gonna hit the mother of all downswings and I don’t wanna be around when that happens!…

    Seriously though I think that your strategy of focusing on specific race types is certainly the key to success and a lesson to us all…. well some…..well me.

    What area do you look at for the flat season or do you spend the summer basking in your glory?

    1. Haha cheers Chris, the losers will come dont you worry.(my losing runs haven never been too severe to date) But, that is why level heads are required, but we have plenty in the bank if/when we hit turbulence!

      Flat – well I like handicap sprints, 5f/6f – but I need to improve on looking at those ‘cold’ –

      I do like a big trends sprint handicaps and plenty of those to get stuck into – big priced placed horses can lead to lots of profit, and I have been known to land on the odd 50/1, 33/1 shot. So, that will be fun.

      ‘horse profiling’ is an area I like, and having learnt a bit last season, I know where I think I will focus – mainly on having a team of class/ratings droppers on side. Just wait for them to drop into right class/ratings band and then bang. Job done!

      Finding front runners in smaller fields who may stay all the way is also an area I like, and need to develop.

      So, they will be the main strands for the flat. generally about sprint handicaps – not quite as good/comfortable at those as I am with 3m+ chasing, but I will get there.

  23. Well done today Josh.
    Believe it or not-when I got your email this morning-I decided to log in and have a read of the blog-and I’m glad I did as I decided to have £5ew on Art Lord,but also I decided to swerve Rupert as though I did fancy him after reading your write up-the drift was enough to put me off!!Theres a lesson there-as he nearly won-and that would have been a hell of a double as I suspect there were probably a few on this blog who did them I a double!
    I may have to come back to this blog now-as I wa a regular reader a few months ago-but I stopped reading as I had lots of other irons in the fire so to speak.I still have a lot of other “tips” which I regularly follow daily-and sometimes there just isn’t enough hours in the day,and also-there are days when in backing a lot of horses and sometimes even three in the same races!!!
    Anyway-thanks again mate-and well done for your hard work.

    1. Cheers Mick,
      I would like to think the blog is a bit more focused now and I have always tried to ensure quality over quantity – which both means if you do follow the tips say, there are never too many over the course of a week, so not too overwhelming.
      Nothing wrong with 3 in same race if getting decent price! – (an issue when an 8 runner race, not 20+!)

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