UPDATE: WHOOOSHHHH that was fun. Great for the Lee’s to have found his trip! Thanks for all of your comments, safe to say we have been on a decent little run since the start of November! What a gutsy horse and a great ride.
I will be back shortly with a new post looking at the big handicap hurdle from Leopardstown. You can thank Bob below if we do end up finding the winner as I have never seen a trends race like it (and without his reminder I may have missed the race completely!)- albeit I havent applied them to the horses yet to see if they help narrow down the field.
BIG RACE PREVIEWS
Russe Blanc – 1 point win – 25/1 (BV/Coral) WON 20/1
Foxbridge – 1.5 points win – 14/1 (general)* UP
*prices available at time of posting, 15.33 (15/01/16)
The 4 guiding trends/stats for me were:-
Top 5 LTO or Did Not Complete
6 or fewer career wins
Top 3 on at least one of previous 3 starts
9 or fewer places in chases (tentative enough, and RB falls down on this one)
Other negatives include having a big weight, only running once this season and not running within the last 6 weeks (last 10 winners had done so)
Shortlist: combining the first 3 of those 4 + running within the last 42 days would leave a shortlist of: Sego / Vivaldi/Algernon/Red Devil/RDB/Russe/Foxbridge /De Kerry Man (bottom weights have a poor record also)
In truth I am not sure if the trends will count for too much here as this will be a right old slog, a bit like the Welsh National. It should be tough for those with big weights to win this, and all credit if any of them can manage it, but more on the oppo shortly…
Russe Blanc… In a sense it didn’t really matter to much what the trends told me for this one. As you know I have been tracking him, and backing him at times this season, as to me he has been crying out for a test like this. I think the trip will really suit (albeit you never know until they try it) and the ground will be fine. At 25s I just had to have a nibble. It may well transpire that he doesn’t have the class as some of these but his suitability to conditions should hold him in good stead. I had to back him at those odds.
Foxbridge... I will start with the negative…at times he can be a sketchy jumper but 14s allowed the chance given everything else in his favour. NTD has won this race before and he has no problem with the mud, as a Ffos Las ‘veteran’. Despite being 10 this is only his 14th career start. He ran ok in the Midlands National last year but has looked a better hose so far this season. On his return at Cheltenham he was staying on up the hill and nearly got up and last time he ran well enough, on ground that was lively enough on a tighter track that may not have suited. I hope they dont hold him up too far back here and keep him handy enough. With a light weight and a liking for the ground he looks like he will just keep galloping.
Sego Success and Vivaldi are short enough for me. The former has a lot of weight and it will be some effort in this ground, over this trip to carry that to victory. He isnt a Denman and I am happy to take him on. The latter may lack for experience here and I am not sure what he has beat. Midnight Prayer is interesting and should keep plodding on but the length of break would be a concern, but he should run his race. Houblon looks a bit out of sorts at the moment and has never relished heavy, although only 3 goes, no places as yet. His best form is also Oct-Dec. I cant have him, albeit he is well handicapped and has a touch of class. De Kerry Man was running well last time before slipping on landing. This is a step up in distance and on deep ground and while unexposed the record of bottom weights tempers enthusiasm and he may find a few too good. However, he is also a system selection and I cant say for sure that he can’t win, so may have a nibble at 10s. We backed Red Devil Lads last time when he unseated. He will need to tidy up his jumping here and given this is a similar race that concerns me. With a clear round he could go very well and I hope I am not kicking myself some 3.45 or so. RDB should find a few too many progressive rivals in here and is up 6lb from the last race – that was very tough and could have taken quite a bit out of him. But, he likes the ground and stays well. He won’t get his own way up front here though and this is much deeper than his last race. Algernon P needs to sharpen up his jumping. Whats left of the others have plenty on their plate.
So, we have two low weighted horses who do need to prove themselves over the trip but I think they will enjoy it and they will relish the ground. There are no proven stayers in the mud that I am wanting to back and hopefully these two give us a run for our money.
HowABoutNever- 1 point win – UP
*as of 16.41 (15/01/16)
Reasoning will be sent out by Daily Punt tomorrow morning.
2.40 Weth – Vendor – 3rd 5/1
1.30 Weth – Seamus Mor WON 8/1>7/4 (will be recorded as 5/1 as 8s only available with PP)
3.35 War – De Kerry Man (14/1<) UP
That is all for today. I am up in Liverpool for a few days, mainly for footballing purposes, and I may be going out this evening, making any further study tomorrow morning problematic! 🙂 enjoy your evening and your weekend.