UPDATE: WHOOOSHHHH that was fun. Great for the Lee’s to have found his trip! Thanks for all of your comments, safe to say we have been on a decent little run since the start of November! What a gutsy horse and a great ride.
I will be back shortly with a new post looking at the big handicap hurdle from Leopardstown. You can thank Bob below if we do end up finding the winner as I have never seen a trends race like it (and without his reminder I may have missed the race completely!)- albeit I havent applied them to the horses yet to see if they help narrow down the field.
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BIG RACE PREVIEWS
3.35 Warwick
Russe Blanc – 1 point win – 25/1 (BV/Coral) WON 20/1
Foxbridge – 1.5 points win – 14/1 (general)* UP
*prices available at time of posting, 15.33 (15/01/16)
Why?
The 4 guiding trends/stats for me were:-
Top 5 LTO or Did Not Complete
6 or fewer career wins
Top 3 on at least one of previous 3 starts
9 or fewer places in chases (tentative enough, and RB falls down on this one)
Other negatives include having a big weight, only running once this season and not running within the last 6 weeks (last 10 winners had done so)
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Shortlist: combining the first 3 of those 4 + running within the last 42 days would leave a shortlist of: Sego / Vivaldi/Algernon/Red Devil/RDB/Russe/Foxbridge /De Kerry Man (bottom weights have a poor record also)
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In truth I am not sure if the trends will count for too much here as this will be a right old slog, a bit like the Welsh National. It should be tough for those with big weights to win this, and all credit if any of them can manage it, but more on the oppo shortly…
Russe Blanc… In a sense it didn’t really matter to much what the trends told me for this one. As you know I have been tracking him, and backing him at times this season, as to me he has been crying out for a test like this. I think the trip will really suit (albeit you never know until they try it) and the ground will be fine. At 25s I just had to have a nibble. It may well transpire that he doesn’t have the class as some of these but his suitability to conditions should hold him in good stead. I had to back him at those odds.
Foxbridge... I will start with the negative…at times he can be a sketchy jumper but 14s allowed the chance given everything else in his favour. NTD has won this race before and he has no problem with the mud, as a Ffos Las ‘veteran’. Despite being 10 this is only his 14th career start. He ran ok in the Midlands National last year but has looked a better hose so far this season. On his return at Cheltenham he was staying on up the hill and nearly got up and last time he ran well enough, on ground that was lively enough on a tighter track that may not have suited. I hope they dont hold him up too far back here and keep him handy enough. With a light weight and a liking for the ground he looks like he will just keep galloping.
The opposition…
Sego Success and Vivaldi are short enough for me. The former has a lot of weight and it will be some effort in this ground, over this trip to carry that to victory. He isnt a Denman and I am happy to take him on. The latter may lack for experience here and I am not sure what he has beat. Midnight Prayer is interesting and should keep plodding on but the length of break would be a concern, but he should run his race. Houblon looks a bit out of sorts at the moment and has never relished heavy, although only 3 goes, no places as yet. His best form is also Oct-Dec. I cant have him, albeit he is well handicapped and has a touch of class. De Kerry Man was running well last time before slipping on landing. This is a step up in distance and on deep ground and while unexposed the record of bottom weights tempers enthusiasm and he may find a few too good. However, he is also a system selection and I cant say for sure that he can’t win, so may have a nibble at 10s. We backed Red Devil Lads last time when he unseated. He will need to tidy up his jumping here and given this is a similar race that concerns me. With a clear round he could go very well and I hope I am not kicking myself some 3.45 or so. RDB should find a few too many progressive rivals in here and is up 6lb from the last race – that was very tough and could have taken quite a bit out of him. But, he likes the ground and stays well. He won’t get his own way up front here though and this is much deeper than his last race. Algernon P needs to sharpen up his jumping. Whats left of the others have plenty on their plate.
So, we have two low weighted horses who do need to prove themselves over the trip but I think they will enjoy it and they will relish the ground. There are no proven stayers in the mud that I am wanting to back and hopefully these two give us a run for our money.
2.25 Warwick
HowABoutNever- 1 point win – UP
*as of 16.41 (15/01/16)
Reasoning will be sent out by Daily Punt tomorrow morning.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Jan Trainers
2.40 Weth – Vendor – 3rd 5/1
Jumps Handicappers
1.30 Weth – Seamus Mor WON 8/1>7/4 (will be recorded as 5/1 as 8s only available with PP)
3.35 War – De Kerry Man (14/1<) UP
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That is all for today. I am up in Liverpool for a few days, mainly for footballing purposes, and I may be going out this evening, making any further study tomorrow morning problematic! 🙂 enjoy your evening and your weekend.
Josh
53 Responses
tough today josh 1.08 on machine
Ah that is how it goes. Just pleased I backed a horse that was backed, out run his odds and kept me entertained/excited for a few minutes, and very excited for over 2/3rds of race. He may have just done a bit too much at times but he will be winning this season and I hope to be on, price allowing. I did think turning in that he had it, but the petrol emptied quite quickly. That’s racing. All good fun!
Seamus Mor a recent import for Oliver from Ireland. Promising record with horses first time out for him.
8/1 with Paddy, 5/1 with others. Get your money on with Paddy quick!
Thanks for that early shout Ali, jumped straight to PP when I read this last night and got 8s, otherwise I would have probably only looked this morning, and how disappointing that would have been, now 3s!
I have just said on Ben Aitkens site that two of the best judges are tipping Foxbridge and that if Josh Wright tipped it then it would become banker material. The other two were Ben and Nick Pullen.
Now i am not in the same class as you three but there has to be small reservations about Foxbridge in my opinion. He is a lightly raced 10 yr old no doubt about that. He has won three races in fields of 6 , 7, and 8 runners. He has also won twice in class 3 and once in class 4. He meets more runners tomorrow and much better class. The two positives are he is lightly raced(not many chances at this level or field size) and more importantly has won all his three races on heavy ground. Hes also 14/1 so its worth taking a pot at him.
Well we shall see if the three wise men have got this right! I am probably most concerned by his scrapper jumping, but he doesnt tip up! Midlands Nat was over 4m and he travelled well for most of the way, certainly up to last 3/4 furlongs. There are never bankers in this game, and not in races like this, but here’s hoping! 14s allows us al to overlook the odd negative.
Plums agrees with these 2 as well Josh – Looks like they should both be suited by conditions etc
In theory! They both need to improve for it so we shall see. Decent prices and we should be entertained for quite a way round!
I look forward to reading your DailyPunt post, Josh.
As well as cheering you on for your hat-trick, I fancied a little saver on Pobbles Bay. Fitted the field-narrowing stats and Evan Williams has been firing a few young, progressive types through the mud very well lately. Plus, good record at the track (I might start backing his hurdlers blind at certain tracks). Had a close look at Volcanic too who also survived the race profile ‘killer stats’ and also seems to love tight LH tracks. McCain’s record on the heavy leaves a lot desired though but it will annoy me if it comes in
What A Good Night, 335W, seems to be overlooked, despite having shown progressive form since joining the Skeltons from NTD. Likes soft ground (so a doubt about today’s holding going , perhaps) but has a slugger’s pedigree rather than a sluggard’s and showed potential for this trip when winning lto, beating Algernon P in a Class 2. A final fence fall prevented a seasonal debut win, too, so today’s two month absence is not a concern. How much more to come, at this trip, to accommodate the rating rise? 14/1 with some books, better on the exchanges.
I don’t understand why Algernon Pazham is shorter than him in the market today!
Yep, you could make some sort of case for most in here really, a right puzzle. I am not sure as to the strength of that bangor form – AP needs to tidy up his jumping but still has time on his side.
What A Good Night- the rating wouldnt concern me. If I like the odds in the context of thinking they are progressive and will improve for this distance then the 8lbs should not stop him. The 66 day break would concern me for a test like this, but clearly he can win after such a break. Whether he is too free or not hard race fit enough come the end, if he stays. as always, if you think the price is big enough to overlook any questions, dive straight in!
Hi josh,will you be looking at the Coral.ie Hurdle,(2.25 leopardstown tomorrow),historically a very good race for statistics,with a lot of firms paying an extra place for each way punters Like myself.
Hi Bob, yes I had a glance at that card and will try and dig something out for tomorrow!
I wonder why Mouse Morris has sent Dromnea over for the main tipping race? Untried at anything like the distance. Ran better than his placing suggests last time at Punchestown but has actually gone up 6 pounds in the handicap for finishing 7th! Seems like a pointless exercise but the stable are more than ‘shrewd’ so I might have a small e/w saver on it ‘just in case’….
Yep, those irish raiders are always worth a second glance, albeit there has been no market support as yet. I dont like the fact that he hasn’t proven his stamina over 3m, which i would want to see. on what he has done on paper stamina is the biggest question – but, it is a known unknown, and as he has never tried it you cant say for sure he wont get it. Good luck if you have an EW nibble.
That’s some gamble on Seamus Mor. 8/1 into 2/1 with no r4. Fingers crossed.
Money was right! Usually is with that yard (anecdotally, no data to back that up!!)
Gamble landed on Seamus Mor. Henry Oliver handicap hurdles stats lands again. Missed the 8’a but on at 4’s. Well done anyone on!
Ah shame you missed 8s, but, 4s still great value abut a 7/4 shot!
Very happy with that Josh. Added Oliver to my HRB following your hurdle angle earlier in the season but missed the overnight gamble. Will reinvest a little on Russe Blanc, having followed you and Ben Aitken on Foxbridge. Had a nibble on Midnight Prayer too, always interesting when trainer has one at head of weights and another entered. Hopefully MP is over his “cough” from last week.
Good luck with howaboutnever – looks good on trends and at a price and ran a nice race lto. Always dubious about trainers intent with these pertemps qualifiers knowing a top 6 finish will suffice.
Hi Josh, very new to your site but mightily impressed with your literature and the way you explain your selections. I wish you all the best and will follow you with a very close eye, I backed Russe Blanc last night 🙂
Thanks Gary,welcome to the blog. Yes excited to see RB over this trip,chance he is outclassed but a nice price and if he does stay will hopefully mop up a regional national
GET IN THERE! YOU BEAUTY! WOW!
may I just say bloody brilliant josh
Your a f******g legend mate I’ve never seen tipping like it
Thank you very much Josh
Josh, you’ve got the bookies under the cosh!
Well done Josh great stuff keeping the faith with Russe Blanc
Well done,very well played!!
Well done again josh. Thanks for another winner
Brilliant once again Josh.Well done thatman.
impressive tipping yet again Josh best blog out there keep it up
Thanks gents, appreciated. Glad you all had a piece! Enjoy the good moments, which admittedly are quite frequent at the moment but it wont always be like that!!
Thanks Josh. Great stuff. On a side note seeing as we’ve talked about the subject before. With hindsight, Coleman heading to Wetherby was definitely a pointer today.
Yep it was, didnt even cross my mind at all until I started to watch the race. Still, at least his winner was only 7/2!
Josh thanks again You’re my Saturday genius!
Great stuff Josh, only discovered your blog at the turn of the year, but really like your approach. Impressive research which deserves the results you are getting. Backed Russe Blanc thanks to your write up. Foxbridge too, he looked to be unlucky when creeping in to the race.
Thank you
Thanks Steve, yes Foxbridge was unlucky – too early to say what would have happened but jockey was still motionless. But, have said it before – if you are going to hold a horse right out the back in a field size that big you are asking for trouble in front of you. He could have easily raced alongside the winner during that race for me – and his best run at Chelts was when near the front. In the tracker he goes as an unexposed 10yo.
Great stuff Josh! Only caught the back end of the race but can see why you’ve been tracking Russe blanc, that was some nice jumping! 🙂
Ah yes he is a wonderful jumper when on song, and to my eye (which is getting better with experience) he has looked to be crying out for a go at that kind of trip. Not sure if he quickens, but just has a relentless gallop which makes him look once paced over 3m, but when nothing else stays as well makes him look a world beater over a trip like that.
Fantastic tipping! Being greedy I was slightly disappointed that BSP was ‘only’ 22.34 (Your growing band of followers might have had something to do with that) but a great bet on a horse that was rather harshly judged on the last run being an Amateur Rider’s race…
cheers Steve – having taken 25s I am quite glad he wasnt bigger on the machine haha. All about trip with him. Newbury was a find run, but he just kept going the same pace and the winner also kept going the same pace and he couldnt close. Bangor – he never looked happy early on, going a pace a tad quick for him maybe, or just an off day/didnt like track, but he kept galloping and it wasnt as bad as it looked on paper. And, with these kind of races, when stepping up so much in trip, recent form can be made to look silly.
Brilliant josh,,, I’m sure foxbridge would have been placed as well bit unlucky
Agree, he was creeping into it. Just wish they would race him a bit close to the pace in those large fields, always asking for trouble. His time will come. Definitely handles a bog/sticky which should be noted.
Booooooommm!!!!
Large Boooooom!!!!
I am not worthy !!!
Keep em comin !!
Yep you can bring out the large BOOOOMMM for that one!
My heart was in my mouth when he approached the second last (I think) for a split second, I thought the jockey was about to take a tumble because of the slipped saddle! Jumped the last beautifully, what a fantastic result. Backed him heavily for a place and 4 places and some for a win!
Congrats Josh,
Great tipping, backed Seamus at 5.1 and backed Russe at 20.1 ew. Had a saver on The Kerryman ran well until stamna ran out, and looks one to be on at 3 miles.
Thanks Roy, glad you had a few today. Yes I think you are right, less holding ground and 3m – and if able to get an easy lead he could take some stopping – decent jumper in the main and will be hard fit now.
top reading and judgement of the race Josh
cheers Paddy, yes that went rather well!
Excellent work again Josh, hopefully a win tomorrow against the mancs to round off a great week all round!
You are a genius josh had a few beers tonight great tipping this week the beer tastes even sweeter when your winnings are paying for the night out many thanks again