A reminder that posts are finalised by 10am at the latest on the day of racing. I always try and get system qualifiers up the evening before and where possible tips. You know a post is complete, when COMPLETE is in the Blog Title.
Lackamon outstayed them all at Catterick to continue the good start to 2016. The tips are now on 5/16, +28.5 points for the year to date. Micro Systems another +14 points on top of that for a running total of +42.5 points across the portfolio.
He received a brilliant ride and showed his customary guts having tried to take at least two fenced with him (possibly the same fence both times) other than that he jumped well and thanks to a strong pace, and the horse in front doing a bit too much too soon, he was able to grab him late and finish with plenty of zest. He wasnt stopping. You have to enjoy the winning days as the losing days far outweigh them!
The second horse is worth taking out of that. A brave run for a 6yo and that trip is clearly no problem. He travelled every so well and probably needed something to take him into it for a bit longer. This race may have taken plenty out of him but is a stayer to keep onside in these types of races, esp next year and year after. The other one is Gorgehouse Lliege who travelled much better in first time cheekpieces. He doesn’t stay this trip for me but travelled really well for a long way. Venetia will find a slog for him around 3m4f, and if he can get an easy lead he could take some stopping.
2.20 Hunt – Bashford Ben – 1 point win – 10/1 (BV/PP)
Damn I had written quite a good preview I thought but appear to have lost it and I can’t be bothered to write it again.
In essence I thought 10s was too big if this horse bounced back to form. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and is much better going RH than LH. The blinkers return which is a change that could spark him back to life. He has won after being PU before and the trainer had a winner today – maybe the yard is about to bounce back to form after a quiet spell. He can lead or track the pace and if running his race would out run his odds. Of course it may be apparent early that he is just an out of form horse, but I will take the risk.
The two horses below him have plenty of questions and the three above him have obvious chances. Arbeo won this race last year but does need to get his own way up front. Hopefully the selection can worry him out of it and get the lead himself. VDS is now 0/9 over fences, most of those in novice races but he does need to step up, which he may do. Bus Named Desire is unexposed but needs to prove he is a C4 animal, which he may well do.
This will be it for tips as it is the only 3m+ chase of any sort around, no profile horses and no Eye-catchers either running.
3.20 Hunt – Three Faces West (11/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST (not tips)
1.50 Hunt – No Bad News – 100/1 – Yes that isn’t a typo and clearly this horse isn’t likely to win, but looking at the market suggests that 3rd place is up for grabs. The trainer is 2/14, 6 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years. He is 1/25, 8 places in maiden hurdles in his career to date. Clearly it looks like he may just be hunted around out the back after 300+ days and they may well be running him a few times to get fit/obtain a handicap mark. But, those are the stats and at 100/1 I thought I would throw him in here! Some beer money in the BF place market for fun maybe.
6.15 Wolvs – Malvesi – 11/1 – Johnston is 6/14, 9 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years. This horse has been off the track over 1500+ days! Clearly he has had his problems but for a yard like his to keep this one in training must indicate something. As with yesterday’s given the profile, and the break etc, the market may well guide as to his chance. Also making handicap debut. Trainer is 28/177 with such runners in last 2 years.