Members Report 15/01/16 (COMPLETE)

A reminder that posts are finalised by 10am at the latest on the day of racing. I always try and get system qualifiers up the evening before and where possible tips. You know a post is complete, when COMPLETE is in the Blog Title. 

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Lackamon outstayed them all at Catterick to continue the good start to 2016. The tips are now on 5/16, +28.5 points for the year to date. Micro Systems another +14 points on top of that for a running total of +42.5 points across the portfolio. 

He received a brilliant ride and showed his customary guts having tried to take at least two fenced with him (possibly the same fence both times) other than that he jumped well and thanks to a strong pace, and the horse in front doing a bit too much too soon, he was able to grab him late and finish with plenty of zest. He wasnt stopping. You have to enjoy the winning days as the losing days far outweigh them! 

The second horse is worth taking out of that. A brave run for a 6yo and that trip is clearly no problem. He travelled every so well and probably needed something to take him into it for a bit longer. This race may have taken plenty out of him but is a stayer to keep onside in these types of races, esp next year and year after. The other one is Gorgehouse Lliege who travelled much better in first time cheekpieces. He doesn’t stay this trip for me but travelled really well for a long way. Venetia will find a slog for him around 3m4f, and if he can get an easy lead he could take some stopping.

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TIP

2.20 Hunt – Bashford Ben – 1 point win – 10/1 (BV/PP) 

Damn I had written quite a good preview I thought but appear to have lost it and I can’t be bothered to write it again. 

In essence I thought 10s was too big if this horse bounced back to form. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and is much better going RH than LH. The blinkers return which is a change that could spark him back to life. He has won after being PU before and the trainer had a winner today – maybe the yard is about to bounce back to form after a quiet spell. He can lead or track the pace and if running his race would out run his odds. Of course it may be apparent early that he is just an out of form horse, but I will take the risk. 

The two horses below him have plenty of questions and the three above him have obvious chances. Arbeo won this race last year but does need to get his own way up front. Hopefully the selection can worry him out of it and get the lead himself. VDS is now 0/9 over fences, most of those in novice races but he does need to step up, which he may do. Bus Named Desire is unexposed but needs to prove he is a C4 animal, which he may well do. 

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This will be it for tips as it is the only 3m+ chase of any sort around, no profile horses and no Eye-catchers either running.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jan Trainers

3.20 Hunt – Three Faces West (11/1<) 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST (not tips)

1.50 Hunt – No Bad News – 100/1 – Yes that isn’t a typo and clearly this horse isn’t likely to win, but looking at the market suggests that 3rd place is up for grabs. The trainer is 2/14, 6 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years. He is 1/25, 8 places in maiden hurdles in his career to date. Clearly it looks like he may just be hunted around out the back after 300+ days and they may well be running him a few times to get fit/obtain a handicap mark. But, those are the stats and at 100/1 I thought I would throw him in here! Some beer money in the BF place market for fun maybe.

6.15 Wolvs – Malvesi – 11/1 – Johnston is 6/14, 9 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years. This horse has been off the track over 1500+ days! Clearly he has had his problems but for a yard like his to keep this one in training must indicate something. As with yesterday’s given the profile, and the break etc, the market may well guide as to his chance. Also making handicap debut. Trainer is 28/177 with such runners in last 2 years. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, I thought your Hobbs January trainers system was where the horse has had 0-2 Hcap Chase wins. Three faces West is making its hcap chase debut therefore falls outside the criteria. Or do i have that wrong?. I just backed L’Unique in that race as making hcap debut for A. king (a fine stroke rate with that type at this track i believe).

    1. Hi James…on my reckoning then, that would mean he has 0 handicap chase wins to his name, and therefore qualifies…? Yes you may well be right about King, I will have a look. L’unique is a smart, classy mare if running to any form.

    2. Ive also had a stats-based go on Lunique – good strike rate with Novice Hcp chases this time of year. Let’s hope he runs as well as his numbers stack up

      1. Sod it I may join you both, very much a heart bet as she did pay for a lot of Aintree losers for me one year. Will take both of your words on the stats! Hobbs may well sluice in but he is short!

  2. Ok thanks for clearing that up, think i’m just trying to make out a clear case for L’unique and clearly confusing myself! Cheers have a pleasant evening

    1. I don’t blame you, Hobbs horse a bit short for me I think. L’Unique won for me at 12/1 Aintree one year so I have always looked to see how she has done. Got the ability to win this race, good luck.

      Yes you too, enjoy your evening.

  3. Hi Josh, my wife asked me what I was cackling about after that amazing late swoop by Lackamon.

    I think that either the draw disadvantage meant that Lucymai ended up being fairly tenderly handled or she was given a nice soft ride, either way certainly not asked for much of an effort. A lot of elbow flapping but not much intent.

    She will stay in my tracker.

  4. With regaurds to the pj hobbs system h-wins n.h hcap as the rule it would qualify (22.66%). H-wins nh race type (23.81%) it wouldnt qualify nor would
    Kruzhlinin have qualified a few days ago. Not really much in it tho 1.15% altho 2.5 points more so far if using the wrong rule? Food for thought? Anyway great tipping today Josh keep up the good work 🙂

  5. Not saying L’unique wont win but King with mares chasing is 0-31 4.92 expected wins so not the magical 5 but still enough to put me off at short odds.

  6. Interestingly No Bad News had his only run in what I assume is the most valuable bumper run in the UK in 2015, a 37K affair at Newbury won by The Unit. Obviously well thought of by the Charlie Mann yard at the time, it is strange that he never ran again and changed stables during the year but given that the poxy place market on Betfair is only offering 13-1 for something that is currently available at 260.0 for the win i will just give it a watching brief here I think.

  7. Have to get more clued up on Betfair (or work out how to operate a split screen). Put a tenner on BOG at 10/1, laid it back 2 out at 1.3 (£3 liability!)…should have laid for more with that little liability. Great shout, though, Josh #unlucky
    Paul

    1. Yes there are a few areas I need to get more clued up on, Betfair and a more ‘exotic’ approach one of them – lackamon hit 100/1+ in running yesterday, and I knew he would be far back staying on but never even thought about in-running.

      Yep, happy enough with that, great run for money and as they turned out the back I thought he may just keep going. Jockey slowed it down well a couple of times, esp when heading out second circuit, maybe could have tried to keep a bit more up sleave,, but then again, maybe not. Winner really likes heavy and just outstayed him. Still, nexttime – slightly better ground, stiffer track and same easy lead and he will be going close. His turn cant be far away. Not many at that level can stay with him when on song.

  8. Just touched off Josh – Another brilliant selection – Traded short on Betfair for a long time so plenty of opportunity to lay short for a profit (Not that I did after yesterday but never mind still a great selection

    1. Thanks Joe, yep got a thrilling run for money so no complaints really. I suspect he will be winning for us soon, price allowing!

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