Russe Blanc ran a blinder, received a brilliant ride which nearly turned to disaster, and outstayed them all as his running style and racing life to date suggested he would. Bloody brilliant and if results/races like that don’t get you excited, time for a new sport! 🙂
Foxbridge was running a cracker as well and who knows what would have happened if a horse didnt come down in front of him. Definitely one to watch and he clearly gets that ground, unlike most of them in that race. The second should also be taken out of that as he is a dour stayer who clearly relished mud also.
No time to dwell in this sport, although I am about to watch that race again, we move over the Irish Sea for what looks like the strongest trends race I have ever researched – clearly we now know what will happen to the three below!….(oh, and good ‘old’ Henry Oliver chipped in with a nice winner also for the systems)
BIG RACE PREVIEW
Okotoks – 1 pt EW – 25/1 (5 places, PP/Bet365 – money back offer on the former if second to fav) (coral 6 places – if you can get on!)
Desoto County – 1 pt win – 10/1 (PP/Bet365/SJ)
Sir Scorpion – 1 pt win – 20/1 (general, PP offer as above)
Let’s start with some trends/stats…brace yourselves (but don’t go unloading the wheelbarrow on those above!)….
19/19 finished Top 7 LTO (0/84, 4 places did not)
19/19 had 0-4 runs this season (0/121, 15 places had 5+)
19/19 had 0-9 runs over hurdles (0/201, 21 places had 10+)
18/18 (one of those with french form,down as never having had a run) finished top 5 on at least one of previous 3 starts…
Let’s just take the top 3 of those for now.
That would leave a manageable list of: Ivan Grozny / Buiseness Sivola / Cliff House / De Name Escapes Me / Bamako Moriviere / Vive La France / THE 3 SELECTIONS
Now, it is quite possible to then dismiss all of those bar the selections…
19/19 had an OR of 128 or below (0/71, 13 places had higher)
Those carrying 11-10+ are 0/16, 2 places
French Breds are 0/39, 7 places
17/19 carried 10-11 or less (exc jockey claim) (2/166, 24 places carried more)
Those that ran at Limerick and Cork LTO are a combined: 0/53, 3 places
Noel Meade is 0/32, 0 places in the race! (trains De Name Escapes Me )
So, all of those above the 3 selections fall down on a few of those trends/stats combined.
The three that don’t happen to be the three I am backing!
I am not going to pretend to have looked at their form in depth. Clearly some of those stats are going to be broken at some point but I am hoping that it is not this year.
Desoto County – he looks to have an obvious chance. Progressive, in form, fit and I dare say plenty more to come. If he stays on his feat he probably looks place banker material but I didn’t really want to have 5 points on this race so have gone win only given the ‘shortish’ odds.
Sir Scorpion – well fitness looks to be the only concern. But, the trainer is 11/182, 32 places with all runners after a break of 121+ days, and while no horse after such a break has won this, the sample is small enough, and that trainer record indicates he can get them fit. Surely he will be fit here and this is no after-thought. If he isnt fit, he won’t place, which is why I went win only. My instinct says the break concerns me, the price, and the fact we have points in the bank, has made me have a nibble.
Okotoks – the most exciting one of the trio. He really is exciting and has no blemish that I can see. He makes his handicap debut for the crafty Tony Martin (1/15, 8 places in race, from 9 races he has had runners in) and the break of 50 days or so looks intriguing. He is a plotter and a big race target trainer. Surely this has been the plan in last few weeks. He is 10/57, 21 places in handicaps at the track in the last 730 days. Denis, the jockey, is 4/17, 6 places for him in that time, in handicaps. Handicap Hurdles he is 3/23, 8 places at track. He is just exciting given the stats, and connections and with luck in running looks likely to out-run those tasty odds.
Well I haven’t really looked in truth and I won’t pretend my knowledge of the Irish 2m hurdle scene is that strong! This is very much about the three horses above, not combined with an assessment of the other runners. Hopefully we are entertained.
NONE from the portfolio but as a bonus there are 4 potentials from the portfolio of systems in my AW report…
1.30 Kempt – Ocean Legend (16/1<)
3.10 Kempt – King Olav (16/1<)
4.10 Kempt – New Leaf (10/1<) / Pour La Victoire (16/1<)*
*just a note for New Leaf – the trainers record with horses over 7f within this angle is dire. I am tracking it as it is fine with those at 6f, and 8f – 7f is specialist, suggesting he may just not have the horses maybe. But, something to note. Maybe this one will go in!
That is all for tomorrow. I will be at Anfield for my first experience of watching us play against our friends up the road, without signal, so I will just imagine Okotoks crossing the line in front at around 2.30.
Enjoy your Sunday.