Reflection…Top Wood’s run was nothing but interesting. I was taken aback as Tom Scu gunned him to the front and persisted in a pace battle with Paddy The Oscar which looked to take its toll on both of them as they entered the home straight. Tom Scu isn’t that stupid and I am puzzled. I would like to think Richard Hoiles the commentator (I believe it was him) has a good eye when it comes to pace and he commented more than once about how quickly they appeared to be going in the ground. Top Wood has won from the front at Haydock but why oh why he didn’t just drop behind PTO and track him I don’t know.
I don’t get angry at all with any losing bets, or rides etc, far too placid and eyes fixed on the long term prize – and it all evens itself out. But, I don’t know what to think of that. I am sure he went too quickly – he travelled and jumped at pace really well. Maybe they have a plan for him and are protecting his mark – gunning a horse too hard out in front is one way to get away with that! A right conundrum. Or, it was just a poor ride. Nothing more, nothing less. While he clearly wears blinkers for a reason, the horse isnt one to down tools and stop trying and I can only think he was just shattered when asked for more. Strange.
Maybe that last race took more out of him than they realised. I will get my money back on him, with interest, as he still has an attractive profile and has ability. One for the tracker.
Maybe that was the betting gods way of slapping me around the face for backing a short enough priced favourite! 🙂 I got the main dangers right and maybe some of you had a saver on the winner. I can’t get these older horses right. Every time I back a horse aged 10+ they drop out the back of the tv, and everytime I leave them they appear to romp home. What a wonderful sport!
Lackamon – 1 point win – 14/1 – WON 12/1
West of The Edge – 1 point win – 14/1 – UP 17/2 – still running!
*as always use oddschecker.co, to obtain the best price.
Due to rail movements you can add another 90 yards onto the advertised distance here, making this even more of a thorough test as they go beyond 3m6f. The ground is officially soft, there looks to be plenty of pace, and it will take some getting.
So, I have gone with two thorough stayers who look likely to relish conditions.
Lackamon – I think we can ignore that last run. That trip is too short on that ground these days but he kept plugging on. The form of the two races before that is of most interest. With a slightly more conservative ride he may have held on at Sedgefield in their regional National but he put a lot of distance back to the third and was out stayed by a horse with a touch more class. The Haydock run also stands out as he just kept on going when many others couldn’t – again bumping into one too good and a stouter stayer in Emperor’s Choice. All race conditions look find, the stable is in form, and unlike most in here is a guaranteed to stay for me. A poor man’s Mountainous maybe! We may end up having to scan our eyes back through the field to find him in the last mile or so but he usually just keeps going and I have an image of him forging past tired rivals over the last couple! 14s seemed generous really. A repeat of either of those two runs before Donny and he should be right in the mix.
West of The Edge – well, he looks to have stamina to burn having won going away over 3m4f LTO, stuffing Barton’s Gift in the process. The horse he beat that day was also progressive and the form looks solid enough. He is just interesting and in races like this stamina, rather than class, is most important for me. You either stay, or you dont and you can rarely get away with it if you are running on fumes near the end. That last race was his first try over a marathon trip and he really enjoyed it. There is a chance he doesn’t get the final 2f but on visual image it looks like he will. The jockey booking was interesting – I thought they would keep the same rider – but, he takes off 7lb, and he has ridden the horse twice before. He is a decent young jockey attached to Hobb’s yard and that claim may help near the end. He has no weight at all and is another who should be staying on near the end, assuming this race doesnt come too soon after the last day – but he looked like he finished with plenty of zest, rather than a tired plod across the line.
Nail’M has an obvious chance but he is short enough at 5/1. He will stay, no problem, and all race conditions look fine. I do wonder though whether he is just a slow plodder, lacking any change of gears. He can also race a tad lazily at times. I did think there was a chance he may get a bit too far back around here and then not have the gears to pick them up. We shall see, if he was 12-14/1 he may well have been in the selections above. But he isnt. The yard is a bit quiet also.
Gorgehouse LLiege would have a chance if the headgear works – and it needs to as he has looked out of sorts. I find it hard to back a horse with three PUs next to their name. He stays 3m4f well, but is now 0/5, 0 places beyond this distance. Barton Gift is in the notebook as he returned to a bit of form last time. But, he was firmly put in his place by West of The Edge and if they both run their race, I am struggling to see why the result would be different. He did maybe do too much up front that day but on this soft ground I think there may be stronger stayers. He is now 0/5, 1 place in C3, so does need more. But, he does have stamina,
We are then getting to those horses who are doing something different – mainly a big jump in distance. Beeves, Alto De Mottes and Jack the Legend are all fairly lightly raced over fences and go over this kind of trip for the first time. Beeves runs over 26f as if this will be within range. (he did run in the 4m at Chelts for McCain and didnt do much,but first try for new trainer) But on soft ground it will have to be. Alto D M steps up by 5f or so – I have no idea if that will suit – a tough ask for a 6yo. Jack The Legend has a C4 novice handicap chase win to his name and ran ok LTO, but nothing more, in a C4 handicap chase. He won over 27f over hurdles and this trip may suit over fences. He is lightly raced and it is hard to say he cant win – we you cant say that with any of these three. The rest I am happy to take on for one reason or another.
PACE…The two selections like to sit mid division usually and that may well be the best place to be here. Last year in this race Scotswell (tipped on the blog) dominated from the front on much better ground. He will try and lead again I hope. Gorgehous L, Pete The Feat/Barton Gift all like to get on with it , and Pinerolo ran from the front LTO. It is hoped that those near the front go too quickly and the selections outstay them all on the run in. Time will tell.
I think we have two lively outsiders who should at least give us some entertainment for most of the way round.
That is it for Tips.
2.50 Catt – Nail M (14/1<) PU
3.25 Catt – Harvey’s Hope (12/1<) DNQ
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(remember these are NOT tips, just horses of interest form a statistical/pace/profiling perspective. I have not looked at other runners in the race in any depth.This section is still in test mode really,but the aim is to find bigger priced value bets)
A couple of handicap debutants catch the eye today…
3.25 Catt – Fair To Middling – PU – 16/1 (BV/WH) goes for team Bowen. Peter is 5/23, 10 places with his handicap deutants in the last 2 years. In the last 5 years he has only sent 4 runners to the track, one won, a further 2 placed. This horse has been off 70 days which is interesting, gets a tongue tie for the first time and cheekpieces. The issue is the ground, but she has only raced on it once LTO and was tailed off. Plenty of her Sires offspring get Heavy so I think the jury is still out on that. If they thought she wouldnt get it, I would like to think they would pull her out. But, we shall see. The market may well guide. The yard has also returned to some form in the last two weeks after a quiet spell, 2/12, 3 places.
6.10 Chelm – Lucymai – 12/1 (general) – Ivory is 4/20, 6 places with his handicap debutants in the last 2 years and this horse won a maiden for him – he cant have many maiden winners so that is interesting in itself. The form of that race has worked out very well. She clearly has some ability and could have something in hand in, in conditions that should suit. The only question is fitness, and whether she is ready to go. A big drift and we may well know the answer to that! He can get them fit if he wants to, as with most trainers these days.
That is all for today, signing off 09.11.