This post is now complete.
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Below I have had a look at a couple of trends races from Cheltenham tomorrow. I will also be looking at the C2 3m Handicap Hurdle for my Daily Punt column, so do look out for that tomorrow morning. There are a few tasty ‘killer stats’ below which should help with shortlisting the winner hopefully!
Following those trends there are some general trainer stats for this one day meeting. These should be treated with caution but are interesting nonetheless.
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RACE TRENDS
CHELTENHAM, NEW YEAR’S DAY
12.45 Cheltenham
10 previous renewals
113 runners, 28 placed horses
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TRENDS
PU LTO: 0/13, 1 place
9/10 priced 12/1 or shorter
- 1/40, 3 places priced 14/1 or bigger
8/10 Top 5 in market
7/10 Aged 8 or 9
- 7/55 runners, 19 places…70% winners, 49% runners, 68% placed horses
- 1/12, 2 places aged 6/7
- 2/31, 5 places aged 10/11
- 0/15, 2 places aged 12+
OTHER STATS
Breeding (origin of horse)
- GB: 3/20, 4 places
- IRE: 6/66, 19 places
- FR: 1/26, 4 places
0/9, 1 place had 4 or more runs in previous 90 days
10/10 had 4 or fewer CHASE wins to name
- 0/17, 3 places had 5+
10/10 had 3 or fewer HANDICAP CHASE wins to name
- 0/10, 2 places had 4+
0/9, 0 places had 5+ handicap wins to name
10/10 had 13 or fewer Handicap Chase RUNS to name
- 0/25, 3 places had 14+
10/10 Had 15 or fewer Chase RUNS to name
- 0/36, 4 places had 16+
6/10 Had won at least one of previous 3 starts
- 6/43 runners, 15 places…+28.75 points
TRACK LTO (of interest)
- Chelt: 2/28, 7 places
- Aintree: 2/14, 4 places
- Newb: 1/16, 5 places
- Sand: 1/10, 2 places
- 1 win each: Wetherby/Bangor/Newton A/Chepstow
- Hayd: 0/6, 1 place
TRAINERS (of interest)
- P Nicholls: 2/7, 2 places +22.75
- 1 win each: Reveley/Daly/King/George/NTD/Hobbs/M Pipe/Fry
- V Williams: 0/5, 3 places
- D Pipe: 0/3, 2 places
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1.55 Cheltenham
12 previous renewals
140 runners, 33 placed horses
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TRENDS
10/12 priced 8/1 or shorter
- 10/54, 19 places…83% winners, 39% runners, 58% places horses
- 2/58, 11 places priced 17/2-20/1
- 0/28, 3 places 22/1 or bigger
1/19, 3 places carried 11-9 +
10/12 ran 1-30 days ago
- 10/86, 26 places…83% winners, 61% runners, 79% places horses
- 2/53, 7 places ran 31+ days ago
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OTHER STATS
Breeding (origin of horse)
- GB: 1/26, 6 places
- IRE: 6/53, 11 places
- FR: 4/50, 14 places
- Other: 1/9, 2 places
11/12 had 2+ runs in previous 90 days
- 1/36, 7 places had 0 or 1 run
10/12 Had 3+ RUNs over ‘VERY STIFF’ fences (HRB- defined as Chelt/Aintree Grand N/Haydock)
- 2/67, 13 places had 2 or fewer runs over such fences in career.
- 0/12, 3 places had never run at Cheltenham
12/12 Had PLACED at least once over VERY STIFF Fences
- 0/53, 10 places had NOT
- Experience of a decent jumping test clearly an advantage.
0/19, 2 places had 5+ handicap wins to name
11/12 had 0-2 Handicap Chase WINS to name
- 1/35, 4 places had 3 or more
12/12 had placed at least once in previous 4 starts
- 0/18, 2 places had not
12/12 ran in C1 or C2 LTO
- 0/28, 5 places did not
TRACK LTO (of interest)
- Chelt: 7/57, 15 places
- Ascot: 2/17, 4 places
- 1 win each: Wetherby/Windsor/Newbury
- Kempton: 0/8, 3 places
- Aintree: 0/9, 1 place
- Haydock: 0/4, 0 places
- Hunt: 0/4, 0 places
TRAINERS (of interest)
- NTD: 3/12, 5 places
- Henderson: 1/11, 4 places
- Nicholls: 1/18, 4 places
- Other 1 win each: F Murphy/V Williams/H Knight/D Pipe/C Llewellyn/Jonjo O’Neill/T George
- A King: 0/6, 1 place
- H Daly: 0/5, 0 places
- P Hobbs: 0/9, 2 places
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MEETING STATS
I have had a quick flick through some stats for Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day meeting. I have gone back to 2008, which covers the last 7 meetings (2013 abandoned). Clearly these stats should be treated with caution but it will be interesting to see if they point to any winners, or help you/us avoid losers.
ODDS
Firstly, horses with an SP over 16/1 are: 2/156, 19 places. Clearly not a meeting to get too adventurous – albeit when backing at a bigger price you are always wanting them to be backed! Something to note.
TRAINERS (16/1< SP)
Positives…
(all those with 2+ wins since 2008 meeting)
- N Henderson/Non-Handicaps: 6/18, 10 places…+4
- A King/Handicaps: 3/12, 4 places…+22
- NTD/Handicaps: 3/14, 5 places…+2.88
- Harry Fry/Non-Handicap: 2/2…+7.5
- D Pipe/Non-Handicap: 2/8, 3 places…+1.44
- P Hobbs/Non-Handicap: 2/10, 3 places…-0.5
- Miss V Williams/Handicap: 2/12, 6 places…+15
- P J Hobbs/Handicap: 2/14, 4 places…-4
Could Do Better…
- P Nicholls/Handicap: 1/20, 5 places…-14.5
- P Nicholls/Non Handicap: 1/13, 3 places…-11
- C Tizzard/Handiap: 0/5, 0 places
- Jonjo O’Neill/Non Handicap:0/7, 1 place
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COMBINED ALL RACES
(all trainers with at least 1 win)
| TRAINER | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E |
| Henderson, N J | 26 | 7 | 26.92 | -1.25 | 13 | 50 | -4.81 | -1 | -3.84 | 3.64 | 1.2 |
| Twiston-Davies, N A | 22 | 4 | 18.18 | 1.38 | 6 | 27.27 | 6.27 | 1.15 | 5.24 | -6.02 | 1.29 |
| King, A | 25 | 4 | 16 | 15.5 | 9 | 36 | 62 | 24.57 | 98.29 | 9.28 | 1.09 |
| Hobbs, P J | 24 | 4 | 16.67 | -4.5 | 7 | 29.17 | -18.75 | -3.04 | -12.68 | -9.66 | 1.09 |
| Pipe, D E | 17 | 3 | 17.65 | 0.44 | 9 | 52.94 | 2.59 | 2.6 | 15.27 | 4.49 | 0.79 |
| Fry, Harry | 3 | 3 | 100 | 14.5 | 3 | 100 | 483.33 | 15.02 | 500.65 | 4.38 | 5.08 |
| Knight, Miss H C | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 9.75 | 2 | 66.67 | 325 | 12.07 | 402.4 | 1.97 | 4.44 |
| Keighley, M | 6 | 2 | 33.33 | 5.33 | 2 | 33.33 | 88.83 | 5.98 | 99.58 | -1.26 | 1.89 |
| Williams, Miss Venetia | 12 | 2 | 16.67 | 15 | 6 | 50 | 125 | 16.93 | 141.1 | 11.54 | 1.71 |
| Nicholls, P F | 33 | 2 | 6.06 | -25.5 | 8 | 24.24 | -77.27 | -24.89 | -75.43 | -15.22 | 0.28 |
| Reveley, K G | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 4.5 | 1 | 33.33 | 150 | 4.55 | 151.52 | -0.23 | 1.96 |
| Williams, Nick | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 66.67 | 5.71 | 95.11 | 3.77 | 1.35 |
| Williams, Ian | 5 | 1 | 20 | 0.5 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 0.66 | 13.1 | -2.92 | 1.18 |
| Tizzard, C L | 11 | 1 | 9.09 | 6 | 3 | 27.27 | 54.55 | 12.48 | 113.43 | 0.65 | 0.99 |
| George, T R | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 33.33 | 2.98 | 49.67 | 3.94 | 1.14 |
| Daly, H D | 4 | 1 | 25 | 2.5 | 2 | 50 | 62.5 | 2.5 | 62.51 | -0.77 | 2.44 |
| Goldsworthy, W K | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 8 | 2 | 66.67 | 266.67 | 9.88 | 329.17 | 0.32 | 2.5 |
| Mullins, W P | 1 | 1 | 100 | 0.4 | 1 | 100 | 40 | 0.42 | 41.8 | 0.05 | 1.41 |
| Stephens, Robert | 1 | 1 | 100 | 5 | 1 | 100 | 500 | 4.94 | 494 | 1.21 | 5.88 |
| ONeill, Jonjo | 16 | 1 | 6.25 | -7 | 4 | 25 | -43.75 | -6.96 | -43.52 | -4.52 | 0.46 |
| Bowen, P | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 8 | 1 | 33.33 | 266.67 | 8.45 | 281.67 | 2.95 | 4.17 |
| Lewis, Miss Hannah | 1 | 1 | 100 | 12 | 1 | 100 | 1200 | 13.3 | 1330 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Morrison, H | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 2.5 | 2 | 66.67 | 83.33 | 3.55 | 118.27 | 0.39 | 1.96 |
7 Responses
The stats for Nicholls are interesting, I have one system based on his runners which shows a profit for the whole of 2015 (and every year back to 2011) but has been mired in a 4/35 slump since mid November. Either the yard has some kind of viral problem or he just never fires at this time of year but I never noticed that in previous years when researching the data, however your stats for the Cheltenham meeting suggest his runners just aren’t fully wound up for whatever reason.
Nicholls looks to be under a cloud at the moment.His last winner was Mon Successor on 19th December. Since then he has sent out 28 runners all failing to win. Some have ran better than others but Saphit Du Rheu,Silviniaco Conti,Southfield Vic,Old Guard,Modus,Lifeboat Mona and Howlongisafoot all ran well below expectations.
Personally i wouldnt be rushing in to back anything from his stable at the moment. You will not have to wait long because i am sure his fortunes will turn around soon.
Yes, every yard has good and bad patches, for system players we just have to ride them out but it’s worrying that so many of Nicholls runners are getting beaten at short prices, even taking into account most of them are way overbet.
I definitly think the yards to follow would be Henderson Hobbs King and even though her record at Cheltenham never fails to amaze me V. Williams surely her staying chasers have to be kept onside.
Thanks for all your time and effort Josh
And a Happy New Year to all readers
Steve, Would you be willing to share your system for P Nicholls? I follow him only on Saturdays and Festivals with reasonable success until this year.
Sure, it is very simplistic but has made over 100 pts profit in the last three years –
Bet all Nicholls runners in Chases/Hurdles that start at less than 18/1 running under 3 miles.in Class 2,3,4 and 5 races. At BSP it only made 19.55 pts profit in 2015, brought down by the late season slump but in 2013 it made 41.31 and in 2014 45.79. The strike rate is actually very consistent at around 22% so it may just be a case that the odds have come down on his runners in these races but hopefully this bad patch will see the odds return to their old levels in 2016,
EDIT: Like most systems this is much more profitable if you take Betfair SP, at normal Starting Prices it only broke even in 2015 so if you don’t have a Betfair account don’t try it.