Members Report: 31/12/15 (COMPLETE)

 

UPDATE: racing is a strange and wonderful game at the best of times, with some results a mystery – or more to the point horses running in a way you didnt expect. Loughalder was well backed into 3/1 and I don’t know what went wrong. He did nearly lose his back-end when crossing one of the covered roads and I don’t know if this affected him as he was never travelling after that. Paddy The Oscar stayed better than I expected in that ground and he looked to set a decent pace – I cant think he was taken off his feet, but maybe he was, and maybe he downed tools. He has won without leading before and I can’t think that was his running, but I won’t go searching for an excuses. He lost. I was quite bullish with him and was confident of a big run. That is racing. Onto tomorrow. 

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TIPS

2.10 Warwick

Loughalder – 2 points win – 8/1 (general) UP

8/1 was a ridiculous price for this horse, and I can only think the odds compilers were still on the booze. He should be half that price for me. He is well handicapped again, having shot up to 122 after some decent form last season, back down to 109 here. He loves the mud, stays all day, and will keep on galloping. This ground will be testing and, much like Haydock yesterday, there will be no hiding place. He will be up there and while there are other pace pushers, I think he is better than them and he could get the lead if he wants to – although he doesnt have to lead. If he sets off on the final circuit with a lead, given his stamina and usually assured jumping, he will take some stopping for me. On the other side, if others go off quickly and lead him, that will bring his stamina into play – so all angles covered, no excuses. He has hacked up in C3 before and this looks a much weaker race than at Exeter. He is also a LH horse (now 0/4, 0 places RH over fences) and has won twice at the track. Everything looks set for a bold run to my eyes and that price just jumped out at me. It is also approaching his time of year – Jan-March. 

Leith Hill Legasi has won for us before when tipped at Chepstow. They have been weak races and that last win – every horse that completed had a combined total of 0 chase wins to their name – it wasnt very strong. She has gone up considerably in the weights and needs to step forward again. I think she may be found out, although she stays and likes the ground, so should complete and is clearly some sort of danger.Price is fair.  Paddy The Oscar is old now, 12yo, and I dont think will be good enough here – there are also stronger stayers in the race, on what they have done to date. Morney Wing – I am assuming may be withdrawn given he won yesterday which will mean a R4, but he is still in it. Stamina is the big question/unknown and surely that race has taken something out of him. Emma Soda, to date, has always needed the run, albeit she stays all day and if race fit would run well. Gamain is unexposed, 0/2, 1 place over fences, and needs to step forward. I don’t like unknowns in these race conditions, because it will be a war of attrition, with no hiding place. But, clearly, he is open to improvement still. Incentivise hasnt shown much for a while now and is getting on. He stays and the ground is fine but maybe age has caught up with him. If this is a slog though, he will keep plugging away and is usually a good jumper. On old ability he would be in with a shout. Raduis Bleu has far too many questions to answer. 

Loughalder looks best suited to conditions for me and has a touch more class than most of these if running his race. I struggle to see him being too far away here and 8s was just too big for me. 

 

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TODAY’S STATS/ANGLES

(remember these are not tips, just some stats pointers you may wish to use in your own analysis. I have only looked at the horse mentioned and have not looked in depth at other horses in the race) 

1.00 Ling – Dose – 8/1 -UP-  Fahey is 3/7, 4 places in 2yp nurseries at this track in the winter months. He is also is decent form at the moment – 7/32 in the last two weeks. 

1.40 Warwick – King of Glory – 10/1 -WON –  V Williams is 8/38 with her handicap chasers here, 5/19, 10 places when Coleman is up top. This horse is 0/6, 3 places over fences and has a couple of questions to answer now. But, this ground is heavy, VW’s horses are turned out and trained in a bog, and if he ran like he did a couple of times last season over fences, he would go close to breaking his maiden tag. 10s probably allowed the chance given his recent form. Always On The Run – goes for Tom George – he is 4/10, 4 places with his handicap chasers here, 2/2 with handicap chase debutants at the track. He looks weak in the market, has been off for a few months, has never ran over fences in public and the ground is a real unknown – McCain kept him to good ground. Maybe a few too many questions, but those are the stats! 

2.35 Punch – Inch Rise – 8/1 – UP – This trainer is 2/4 with his handicap  debutants in the last year, 1/2 at this track. This horse has ran well enough in maidens to suggest there is ability. On breeding the step up in trip looks sure to help also. Trainer is 3/12 in past month, so they are running well enough. 

3.00 Ling – Mary Ann Bugg 11/1 – UP – Pace caught my eye here – she has been leading over 6f and bar a win at Chelmsford has been unable to hold on. That may be because she is not good enough but he is the only one here who consistently tries to get to the front and lead. She is drawn wide but if she can get out, and steal a few lengths, she has stamina over 6f and could out run her odds. She should make it a good test, in theory – it could all be about the start. There is a chance she may not have the pace for 5f but she looked interesting at a price,pace wise. 

3.30 Ling – The Tichborne – 28/1 – UP- a bit of a poke here – this horse is 4/9, 5 places at Lingfield, 2/4 in CD handicaps. He is this price because before his last run he had been off a long time and he didnt do much on his return. He will come on for that no doubt but whether or not he is in any kind of form who knows – the market suggests he doenst have a chance but he has won at decent odds previously. But, one to note moving forwards given his track form and they have clearly persisted with him for a reason. 

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MICRO ANGLES 

There are NO potential qualifiers tomorrow. 

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That is all for today, signing off 09.05 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

8 Comments

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  • Just like to thank you for the write ups, even if I don’t end up backing your picks they are always well reasoned and give food for thought, like the late lamented Tom Stanley (Reinman) used to on Oddschecker…One point about Fine Parchment yesterday, if you backed him for a place on Betfair you still got paid, no need to worry about withdrawn horses which is one of the reasons I only use the exchange for betting.

    Steve Veasey 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Steve, many thanks – yes I think it is useful you know why I like something or not, and gives ammo for why you may agree or disagree etc – have never been one to just put a horse up with no explanation, I dont see the point!

      Very good point about BF- I dont play on the exchanges too often,and that didnt even enter my head – in future when 8 runners or so, placing any placed bets on BF clearly the wise choice, esp when bad weather – ground went against him in the end, that was heavy and was hoping would just be soft! – He could have a veteran’s chase in him or something, still clearly shows plenty for them to keep him in training.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • Yes, I watched the race and thought there had been a false start, they were going so slowly…for once one of Venetia Williams chasers got outslogged in a swamp! With regard to Betfair, the place market is a strange beast. You can find horses at 3.5 to win that pay 2.2 for a place but in other races the first five in the betting are all odds on for a place. Its very much a race by race proposition but when you have a 4 runner race paying 3 places (which has happened more than once) it has to be taken advantage of…

        Steve Veasey 2 years ago Reply


  • I missed the bus on loughalder into 4/1 now and I reckon on latest results plenty of big stables I.e Nicholls longsdon and maybe pipes (hard to tell as he doesn’t seem to have got started for the season yet
    Best of luck to all on loughalder and fahys dose is been well backed as well

    Aaron 2 years ago Reply


    • Ah shame, there has been a 15pR4 also, so effectively 6.8/1 if getting 8s, which was around until 9ish I think, I should have put him up late last night when he jumped out. Still, in that race, if you could get 9/2 or 5/1 – I would still suggest that offers a tad of value, albeit not 6.8 – he could go off at 7/2 – although as I have said numerous times, taking a price a few points shorter than you know was available is probably not wise long term – but judging value is a funny old game!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Well i wish i had checked the blog before i placed my bets today! I’ve had a small ew on incentivise but hopefully young mr Gethings can work some magic today. I’ve also had a ‘punt’ on van huysen 2.30 lingfield mainly because D Brook seems to get on well with him on the sand. Two that i’m interested in on their first run for a new trainer are always on the run that you mention above Josh, and verni 12.20 uttoxeter for Hobbs.

    james.b 2 years ago Reply


    • Yep, I can see why, at what was 12s or so, you would have a punt on the old boy Incentivise – he just seems out of nick and out of love with the game – but, all race conditions are ok – better form on soft/good to soft, than heavy, but he will stay. If Loughalder doesnt win then he has as much chance as others on old form – probably best to put a place bet on BF with 3 places now, if you havent already as only 2 places bookies now. Good Luck – albeit not too much 🙂

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Wshing you a happy New Year and continued success next year.Thanks for the posts during the year.Thankfully I looked at your blog and picked up King of Glory,had backed always on the run last night.He was in lead when my internet crashed,but over the moon to see that king of glory won,always on the run went well and one for another day.Best wishes and good luck

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


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