UPDATE: racing is a strange and wonderful game at the best of times, with some results a mystery – or more to the point horses running in a way you didnt expect. Loughalder was well backed into 3/1 and I don’t know what went wrong. He did nearly lose his back-end when crossing one of the covered roads and I don’t know if this affected him as he was never travelling after that. Paddy The Oscar stayed better than I expected in that ground and he looked to set a decent pace – I cant think he was taken off his feet, but maybe he was, and maybe he downed tools. He has won without leading before and I can’t think that was his running, but I won’t go searching for an excuses. He lost. I was quite bullish with him and was confident of a big run. That is racing. Onto tomorrow.
Loughalder – 2 points win – 8/1 (general) UP
8/1 was a ridiculous price for this horse, and I can only think the odds compilers were still on the booze. He should be half that price for me. He is well handicapped again, having shot up to 122 after some decent form last season, back down to 109 here. He loves the mud, stays all day, and will keep on galloping. This ground will be testing and, much like Haydock yesterday, there will be no hiding place. He will be up there and while there are other pace pushers, I think he is better than them and he could get the lead if he wants to – although he doesnt have to lead. If he sets off on the final circuit with a lead, given his stamina and usually assured jumping, he will take some stopping for me. On the other side, if others go off quickly and lead him, that will bring his stamina into play – so all angles covered, no excuses. He has hacked up in C3 before and this looks a much weaker race than at Exeter. He is also a LH horse (now 0/4, 0 places RH over fences) and has won twice at the track. Everything looks set for a bold run to my eyes and that price just jumped out at me. It is also approaching his time of year – Jan-March.
Leith Hill Legasi has won for us before when tipped at Chepstow. They have been weak races and that last win – every horse that completed had a combined total of 0 chase wins to their name – it wasnt very strong. She has gone up considerably in the weights and needs to step forward again. I think she may be found out, although she stays and likes the ground, so should complete and is clearly some sort of danger.Price is fair. Paddy The Oscar is old now, 12yo, and I dont think will be good enough here – there are also stronger stayers in the race, on what they have done to date. Morney Wing – I am assuming may be withdrawn given he won yesterday which will mean a R4, but he is still in it. Stamina is the big question/unknown and surely that race has taken something out of him. Emma Soda, to date, has always needed the run, albeit she stays all day and if race fit would run well. Gamain is unexposed, 0/2, 1 place over fences, and needs to step forward. I don’t like unknowns in these race conditions, because it will be a war of attrition, with no hiding place. But, clearly, he is open to improvement still. Incentivise hasnt shown much for a while now and is getting on. He stays and the ground is fine but maybe age has caught up with him. If this is a slog though, he will keep plugging away and is usually a good jumper. On old ability he would be in with a shout. Raduis Bleu has far too many questions to answer.
Loughalder looks best suited to conditions for me and has a touch more class than most of these if running his race. I struggle to see him being too far away here and 8s was just too big for me.
(remember these are not tips, just some stats pointers you may wish to use in your own analysis. I have only looked at the horse mentioned and have not looked in depth at other horses in the race)
1.00 Ling – Dose – 8/1 -UP- Fahey is 3/7, 4 places in 2yp nurseries at this track in the winter months. He is also is decent form at the moment – 7/32 in the last two weeks.
1.40 Warwick – King of Glory – 10/1 -WON – V Williams is 8/38 with her handicap chasers here, 5/19, 10 places when Coleman is up top. This horse is 0/6, 3 places over fences and has a couple of questions to answer now. But, this ground is heavy, VW’s horses are turned out and trained in a bog, and if he ran like he did a couple of times last season over fences, he would go close to breaking his maiden tag. 10s probably allowed the chance given his recent form. Always On The Run – goes for Tom George – he is 4/10, 4 places with his handicap chasers here, 2/2 with handicap chase debutants at the track. He looks weak in the market, has been off for a few months, has never ran over fences in public and the ground is a real unknown – McCain kept him to good ground. Maybe a few too many questions, but those are the stats!
2.35 Punch – Inch Rise – 8/1 – UP – This trainer is 2/4 with his handicap debutants in the last year, 1/2 at this track. This horse has ran well enough in maidens to suggest there is ability. On breeding the step up in trip looks sure to help also. Trainer is 3/12 in past month, so they are running well enough.
3.00 Ling – Mary Ann Bugg 11/1 – UP – Pace caught my eye here – she has been leading over 6f and bar a win at Chelmsford has been unable to hold on. That may be because she is not good enough but he is the only one here who consistently tries to get to the front and lead. She is drawn wide but if she can get out, and steal a few lengths, she has stamina over 6f and could out run her odds. She should make it a good test, in theory – it could all be about the start. There is a chance she may not have the pace for 5f but she looked interesting at a price,pace wise.
3.30 Ling – The Tichborne – 28/1 – UP- a bit of a poke here – this horse is 4/9, 5 places at Lingfield, 2/4 in CD handicaps. He is this price because before his last run he had been off a long time and he didnt do much on his return. He will come on for that no doubt but whether or not he is in any kind of form who knows – the market suggests he doenst have a chance but he has won at decent odds previously. But, one to note moving forwards given his track form and they have clearly persisted with him for a reason.
There are NO potential qualifiers tomorrow.
That is all for today, signing off 09.05