**FESTIVE BONANZA **

What follows are trends/stats profiles for 5 big chases that will be run over the 26th and 27th December.

There are then some general/trainer stats for Kempton’s two day meeting.

Following that there are some interesting trainer stats for this time of year. It is a bit of fun really but they may help guide you to a few winners.

As always these posts are to give you some extra info to help you find your own winners/bets. Of course I will be using them as well and plan to ‘tip’ in all 5 of the races that follow below.

Right, let’s get to it…

***

***

__THE KING GEORGE VI CHASE__

18 previous renewals (as detailed in HRB)

170 horses / 52 places have been up for grabs

*NOTE: Just to say the point of adding the detail about % of winners and placed horses against % of runners helps to see if a ‘trend’ or stat is performing as you would expect, based on the number of runners. Some trends are pointless and can be misleading, and while this is a fairly crude measure it is useful.*

***

TRENDS

16/18 Top 3 LTO

- 16/118 runners,44 placed horses…89% winners, 69% runners, 85% placed horses
- 1/1 had
*no run*(probably French form not accounted for in HRB) - 1/4, 1 place UR LTO
- 0/47, 7 places finished 4
^{th}or worse. (PU = 0/8, 2 places)

17/17 (of those ‘with a run’) ran 16-90 days ago

- 0/15, 2 places ran 8-15 days ago
- 0/11, 3 places ran 121-365 days ago

Nothing much on the ‘age stats’. 10yo are 0/18, 4 places, but 11yo are 2/12, 4 places

ODDS/MARKET

14/18 priced 4/1 or shorter

- 14/32, 23 places..78% winners, 19% runners, 44% places

14/18 Top 2 in Market

- 14/37, 23 places…78% winners, 22% runners, 44% places
- 17/18 Top 5 in market

o 1/77, 8 places were 6^{th} or worse in market

***

OTHER STATS

Breeding (origin of horse)

- GB: 1/31, 8 places
- IRE: 6/72, 18 places
- FR: 11/63, 26 places
- USA/GER: 0/4, 0 places

14/18 Had won 1 or more times this season

- 14/86 runners,33 places…78% winners, 51% runners, 63% placed horses
- 4/84 runners, 19 places had 0 wins this season…22% winners,49% runners, 37% places

15/18 had won at least one G1

- 3/85, 17 places had not…17% winners, 50% runners, 33% places

0/30, 3 places ran outside of Graded company LTO

0/29, 2 places had failed to win at least once in previous 4 runs

Track LTO (of interest)

- Haydock: 8/33, 14 places
- Punch: 2/7, 6 places
- Sand: 1/15, 4 places
- Newb: 1/20, 5 places
- Chelt: 1/26, 5 places
- Weth/Hunt/Cheps/Clonmel/ – 1 win each

Trainers (of interest- with runners)

- P Nicholls: 9/26, 13 places
- W Mullins: ¼, 2 places
- D Pipe: 0/12, 4 places
- C Tizzard: 0/3, 1 place
- A King: 0/4, 2 places
- Elliot: 0/1, 0 places

***

** ROWLAND MEYRICK HANDICAP CHASE** (1.45 Wetherby)

13 renewals since 1997 (abandoned 1999,2000,2002,2009,2010)

108 runners, 32 placed horses

***

On first glance not an awful lot to go on…

0/8, 3 places carried 11-12

13/13 ran 16-90 days ago

- 0/16, 2 places ran 1-15 days ago
- 0/6, 0 places ran 121+ days ago

9/13 had 2 runs only in previous 90 days (since 26/27^{th} September)

- 9/41 runners, 17 places…69% winners, 38% runners, 53% placed horses
- 2/33, 9 places had 1 only
- 2/28, 6 places had 3 or more

10/13 had placed on at least one of previous 2 starts

- 10/65 runners, 20 places..77% winners, 60% runners, 63% placed horses
- 3/42, 12 places did not place on either of last two starts.

10/13 Had placed 1^{st} or 2^{nd} on at least one of previous 3 runs.

- 3/34, 10 places had not

12/13 had between 1-4 Chase wins to name

- 12/70 runners, 25 places…92% winners, 65% runners, 78% placed horses
- 1/38, 7 places had 0 or 5 or more chase wins to name

12/13 had between 2-8 Handicap Chase RUNS to their name

- 12/57, 21 places…92% winners, 53% runners, 66% placed horses
- 1/51, 11 places had ran outside of this in handicap chases

13/13 had 6 or more chase RUNS to their name

- 0/13, 2 places had between 0-5

Track LTO (of interest)

- Wetherby: 3/16, 5 places
- Newbury: 3/11, 4 places
- Haydock: 3/23, 7 places
- Aintree: 2/6, 2 places
- Cheltenham: 1/15, 4 places
- Newcastle: 1/9, 2 places
- Donc: 0/5, 1 place
- Sand: 0/4, 3 places
- Kelso: 0/5, 0 places

Trainers (of interest)

- M Jefferson: 2/5, 4 places
- Sue Smith: 1/16, 4 places
- P Nicholls: 1/4, 2 places
- W Greatrex: 1/1,1 place
- H Daly: 1/1, 1 place
- D McCain Jnr: 0/3, 2 places
- D Pipe: 0/2, 0 places
- Venetia Williams: 0/3, 0 places

***

***

**27 ^{th} December**

**Welsh National**

18 renewals since 1997

309 runners, 68 placed horses

11/18 1^{st} or 2^{nd} LTO

- 11/102 runners, 30 places…61% winners, 33% runners, 44% placed horses

18/18 Top 6 LTO

- 18/221 runners, 60 places…100% winners, 72% runners, 88% placed horses
- 0/88, 8 places finished 7
^{th}or worse- 0/13, 0 places fell LTO
- 0/27, 2 places PU LTO
- 0/6, 1 place UR

18/18 Aged 9 or younger

- 0/75, 9 places aged 10 or older

18/18 carried 11-6 or less

- 0/36, 7 places carried 11-7 or more
- 11-12…0/14, 5 places

18/18 ran 16-60 days ago

- 0/31, 3 places ran 1-15 days ago
- 0/26, 0 places ran 61+ days ago

17/18 Had 1 or 2 runs this season

- 0/18, 0 places had 0 runs
- 1/71, 15 places had 3 or more

ODDS

- 18/18 – 40/1 or under
- 50/1 or over SP…0/42, 3 places
- 22/1-40/1…1/62, 9 places

***

OTHER STATS

Now, when the ground is HEAVY… (10 times in last 18 years)

- 10/10 carried 10-13 or less (EXCLUDING jockey claims)
- 9/10 carried 10-8 or less
- 9/102 runners, 26 places…

- 0/45, 9 places carried 11-00 or more

When it is SOFT.. (6 times, 2 times been officially good to soft)

- 0/46, 8 places carried 10-4 or less (excluding jockey claims)
- When including jockey claims…0/52, 9 places carried 10-3 or less
- 11-7 or more…0/9, 2 places (Including jockey claims)

***

17/18 had 1 or 2 runs only in previous 90 days

- 0/19, 0 places had 0 runs in 90 days
- 1/57, 13 places..3 or more runs in previous 90 days

0/22, 6 places had 6 or more chase wins to name

18/18 had 0-3 Handicap Chase Wins to name

- 0/46, 5 places had 4 or more handicap chase wins to name

16/18 finished 1^{st} or 2^{nd} on at least one of previous 3 starts

- 2/87, 17 places did not…11% runners, 28% runners, 25% places (place % suggests these are running as you may expect, so maybe not a stat to be too hung up on)

0/28, 3 places DID not place on any of previous 4 starts

15/18 had 1-3 Handicap Wins to name

- 15/172 runners, 42 places…83% winners, 56% runners, 62% places
- 1/59, 16 places had 0 handicap wins
- 0/44, 5 places had 4 handicap wins
- 2/21, 5 places had 5 handicap wins
- 0/13, 0 places had 6 or more handicap wins

1/49, 8 places had 18 or more chase runs to name

16/18 Did Not run in a G3 or Listed Race LTO

- 2/109, 24 places did run G3/Listed LTO…11% winners, 35% runners, 35% places

***

TRACK LTO (of interest)

- Chepstow: 8/45, 18 places…+80 SP
- Chelt: 3/44, 8 places
- Hayd: 2/30, 9 places
- Aintree: 1/27, 3 places
- Sand: 1/14, 2 places
- Navan: 1/8, 2 places
- Wetherby: 1/5, 2 places
- Newbury: 1/51, 11 places
- Newcastle: 0/9, 1 place
- Exeter: 0/15, 1 place

TRAINERS (of interest)

- P Nicholls: 2/31, 12 places
- Venetia Williams: 2/12, 5 places
- R Lee (now K Lee-not much has changed): 2/8, 3 places
- Jonjo O’Neill: 2/8, 3 places
- NTD: 2/22, 5 places
- JTR Dreaper: 1/2,1 place
- A King: 1/10, 5 places
- 1 win each others: Hawke/Scudamore/Daly/Hobbs (1/19,3 places)
- E Williams: 0/4, 2 places
- V Dartnall: 0/6, 2 places
- D Pipe: 0/13, 1 place (Martin was 0/24, 1 place)
- L Russell: 0/4, 2 places
- P Bowen: 0/9, 0 places
- C Tizzard: 0/7, 0 places
- Mrs S J Smith: 0/5, 1 place
- N Henderson: 0/5, 2 places

***

**2.15 Kempton: C2 3m Handicap Chase**

8 renewals since 2006. 94 runners, 25 placed horses

Not too much to go on but some stats of interest…

0/9, 1 place carried 11-11 or 11-12

6/8 Ran 31-60 days ago

- 6/41 runners, 9 places…75% winners, 44% runners, 36% placed horses
- 2/46, 14 places ran 1-30 days ago
- 0/7, 2 places ran 61+ days ago

7/8 Had 1-3 runs this season Only

- 7/67 runners, 17 places…88% winners, 71% runners, 68% placed horses
- 6/8 had 2 or 3 runs this season…6/48 runners, 12 places

- 0/24, 7 places had 4 or more.
- 0/3, 1 place had no runs this season

MARKET/ODDS

8/8 priced 12/1 or under

- 0/28, 6 places priced 14/1 or bigger so far

OTHER STATS

- 6/39, 13 places had 2 runs only in previous 90 days
- 8/8 had 0-3 chase wins to name. 0/18, 3 places had 4 or more
- 8/8 had 0-3 Handicap wins to name. 0/15, 1 place had 4 or more. 7/8 had 1-3 (1/24,5 places has 0)
- 8/8 had finished 1
^{st}or 2^{nd}on at least one of last 5 runs. 0/14, 4 places had not. - 7/8 had finished 1
^{st}or 2^{nd}on at least one of last 3 runs. 1/30, 7 places had not. - 7/8 had run at Listed level or higher (Gr3,2,1) 1/32, 10 places had not.

TRACK LTO (of interest)

- Ascot: 3/14, 5 places…+8.5 SP
- Newbury: 1/21, 8 places
- Sandown: 0/9, 1 place
- Aintree: 0/4, 0 places

TRAINERS (of interest)

- N Henderson: 2/7, 2 places…+13.5 SP
- 1 win each for: G Moore/N Hawke/A King/T George/H Daly/Jonjo O’Neill
- P Hobbs: 0/7, 0 places
- P Nicholls: 0/6, 0 places

***

**2.55 Leopardstown: Paddy Power Handicap Chase**

18 previous renewals since 1997

467 runners, 72 placed horses

***

TRENDS

14/18 Top 5 LTO

- 14/274 runners, 55 places…78% winners, 57% runners, 76% places
- 2/35, 2 places PU LTO
- 0/21, 4 places Fell
- 0/7, 0 places UR
- 2/130, 11 places finished 6
^{th}or worse, but completed.

15/18 Aged 5-8

- 3/132, 20 places aged 9+…17% winners, 28% runners, 28% places
- Stats suggest nothing really on age in terms of runners, places etc

17/18 carried 11-3 or less

- 1/60, 6 places carried 11-4 or more

18/18 ran 16-60 days ago

- 0/64, 1 place ran 1-15 days ago
- 0/27, 4 places ran 61+ days ago

18/18 had 1-5 runs this season

- 0/14, 0 places had 0 runs
- 0/55, 8 places had 6 or more

ODDS

A race to back one at a price it would appear. 0/30, 1 place 50/1 or bigger. 8 winners priced between 14/1 and 40/1.

***

OTHER STATS

Breeding (origin of horse)

- GB: 1/39, 6 places
- IRE: 17/393, 57 places
- FR: 0/28, 8 places
- Other: 0/7, 1 place

0 chase wins: 0/30, 3 places

16/18 0 or 1 handicap chase win to name

- 2/109, 14 places had 2 or more…11% winners, 23% runners, 19% places

0/27, 2 places had 5 or more handicap wins to name

18/18 had finished Top 5 on at least one of previous 3 runs

- 0/49, 4 places did not

17/18 had placed at least once in last 5 runs.

- 1/46, 7 places had not

Previous G1 winners are 0/27, 1 place

Horses Dropping in class (from Grade A) 0/16, 0 places

18/18 had 0-15 chase runs to name

- 0/75, 4 places had 16 or more chase runs to name

17/18 Had 0 or 1 win this season

- 1/55, 9 places had 2 or more wins

Horses wearing headgear are: 2/96, 11 places

***

TRACK LTO (of interest)

- Navan: 6/131, 18 places
- Punch: 2/70, 11 places
- Cork: 2/37, 6 places
- Newb: 1/7, 2 places
- Thurles: 1/16, 4 places
- Fairyhouse: 1/95, 13 places
- Clonmel: 1/19, 1 place
- Aintree: 0/10, 1 place
- Naas: 0/20, 2 places
- Cheltenham: 0/23, 2 places

TRAINER (of interest)

- Noel Meade: 2/36, 6 places
- A J Martin: 2/16, 5 places
- Robert Tyner: 2/15, 4 places
- W Mullins: 1/27, 2 places
- Jonjo O’Neill: 1/8, 1 place
- G Elliot: 0/9, 3 places
- Thomas Mullins: 0/5, 0 places
- E McNamara: 0/5, 0 places
- A L T Moore: 0/25, 6 places
- D T Hughes (now Sarah): 0/20, 3 places
- P Nolan: 0/9, 2 places
- C Roche: 0/10, 2 places
- Mrs John Harrington (Jessica): 0/8, 0 places

***

**MEETING/TRAINER STATS **

**Kempton’s King George Meeting: Stats of Interest **

**Odds **

Horses here going off 20/1 or bigger are: 0/150, 11 places since 2010

Those priced 14/1-16/1: 2/57, 15 places

12/1<: 60/301, 131 places

**Trainers **

**Handicaps **(16/1<, most winners first)

- N Henderson: 3/17, 6 places…+0.5 SP
- E Lavelle: 2/6, 3 places…+3 SP
- D McCain: 2/3, 3 places…+12 SP
- T George: 2/3, 2 places…+6
- C Longsdon: 2/5, 2 places…+13 SP

**Non Handicaps** (16/1<, most winners first)

- N Henderson: 13/34, 20 places…+5.19 SP
- P Nicholls: 11/37, 22 places…+0.17 SP
- D Pipe: 2/7, 4 places…-3.18 SP
- W Greatrex: 2/7, 2 places…+14.5 SP
- C Longsdon: 2/4, 3 places…+0.67 SP

**COMBINED** (16/1<) Of interest

- N Henderson: 16/51, 26 places…+5.59 SP
- P Nicholls: 11/50, 26 places…-12.83 SP
- C E Longsdon: 4/9, 5 places…+13.67 SP
- D E Pipe: 3/9, 5 places…-1.68 SP
- W Greatrex: 3/9, 3 places…+17 SP
- E Lavelle: 2/6, 3 places…+3 SP
- G Moore: 2/9, 4 places…+9 SP
- T George: 2/5, 2 places…+4 SP
- D McCain: 2/7, 3 places…+8

They are all of the trainers with two or more winners at this meeting 2010-

Others of interest…

- P Hobbs: 1/12, 3 places…-7.5 SP
- J Ferguson: 1/10, 5 places…-5.5 SP
- A King: 0/21, 11 places
- C Tizzard: 0/13, 5 places
- K Bailey: 0/9, 1 place

**Other Trainer Angles**…(16/1<, 2 winners or more)

- P Nicholls/Non Handicap Chase: 6/20, 10 places…+0.26
- N Henderson/Non-Handicap Hurdle: 6/10, 6 places…+5.93 SP
- N Henderson/Non-Handicap Chase: 4/14, 7 places…-6.49 SP
- P Nicholls/Non-Handicap Hurdle: 3/10, 7 places…-4.09 SP
- N Henderon/NHF: 3/10, 7 places…+5.75 SP
- T George/Handicap Chase: 2/2…+7 SP
- W Greatrex/NHF: 2/7, 2 places…+14.5 SP
- P Nicholls/NHF: 2/7, 6 places…+4 SP
- C Longsdon/NHF: 2/3, 2 places…+1.67 SP
- D Pipe/Non-Handicap Chase: 2/6, 4 places…-2.18 SP
- N Henderson/Handicap Chase: 2/8, 2 places…+3.5 SP
- E Lavelle/Handicap Hurdle: 2/5, 2 places…+4

***

**TRACK LAST TIME OUT**

Handicaps (16/1<)

- Ascot: 4/10, 4 places…+34 SP
- Fontwell: 2/4, 2 places…+10.5 SP
- Leicester: 2/8,3 places…+1.5 SP
- Cheltenham: 2/13, 5 places…+0.5 SP
- Newbury: 2/21, 11 places…-14 SP
- Sandown: 1/32, 5 places

**Non Handicaps (16/1<)**

- Sandown: 6/23, 11 places…-4.24 SP
- Newbury: 5/17, 12 places…+2.4 SP
- Haydock: 4/15, 7 places…-0.74 SP
- Ascot: 4/16, 9 places…+12.53 SP
- Aintree: 3/8, 3 places…+0.11 SP
- Chelt: 3/26, 7 places…-19.58 SP
- Donc: 2/7, 2 places…-2.9 SP
- Newc: 2/8, 4 places…-3.37 SP

***

**Trainers to follow…26 ^{th}/27^{Th} December in UK**

I have already looked at Kempton above, so the following stats focus on Chepstow/Fontwell/Huntingdon/Market Raisen/Sedgefield/Wetherby/Wincanton

Now, this is a bit of fun really and it will be interesting how these trainers perform this year. The numbers are small and could just be luck, no deliberate strategy as such. Or, due to it being the festive period, with owners likely to make the races and wanting some Xmas fun, certain trainers may target these meetings. We shall see!

2010-

**HANDICAP CHASES**

- Venetia Williams: 4/13, 8 places…+12 SP
- Mrs Caroline Bailey: 3/4, 3 places…+15 SP
- M Jefferson: 3/10, 6 places…+33.5 SP
- Lucinda Russell: 2/9, 3 places…+2.5 SP
- NTD: 2/12, 4 places…+15 SP
- T George: 2/13, 5 places…+0.88 SP
- L Richards: 2/2…+6.75
- C Longsdon: 2/3, 2 places…+4 SP
- A E Jones: 2/2…+23 SP
- D Pipe: 0/15, 3 places
- P Nicholls: 0/10, 3 places

**HANDICAP HURDLES**

- Tim Vaughan: 4/17, 6 places…-2.42 SP
- P A Kirby: 3/10, 3 places…+28 SP
- D Pipe: 3/15, 4 places…-5.05 SP
- Anabel K Murphy: 3/9, 4 places…+22.5 SP
- B Ellison: 3/16, 10 places…+9.5 SP
- P Bowen: 2/6, 4 places…+16 SP
- Mrs S J Smith: 2/11, 4 places…+5 SP
- Miss C Dyson: 2/5, 4 places…+13.25 SP
- M Hammond: 0/15, 6 places
- C Gordon: 0/7, 1 place

**NON HANDICAPS (ALL)**

- D McCain: 5/17, 8 places…-4.28 SP
- NTD: 4/10, 6 places…+8.87 SP
- Nick Williams: 3/5, 3 places…+4.84 SP
- O Sherwood: ¾, 3 places…+1.44 SP
- N Henderson: 3/6, 4 places…+0.02
- P Hobbs: 3/10, 7 places…+1.75 SP
- M Jefferson: 3/6, 6 places…+11.35 SP
- S Gollings: 2/8, 5 places…+3 SP
- Tim Vaughan: 0/17, 2 places
- M Hammond: 0/10, 3 places
- C Grant: 0/9, 1 place

***

**IRELAND**

The following stats look at Down Royal, Limerick and Leopardstown. For the latter two tracks they cover every day of their meetings up to the end of the month. 2010-

HANDICAPS (ALL)

- John Joseph Hanlon: 4/17, 4 places…+36.5 SP
- Denis Gerard Hogan: 3/12, 4 places…+13.75 SP (winners all at Limerick)
- C Byrnes: 3/7, 4 places…+18.55 SP
- T M Walsh: 2/4, 3 places…+7.5 SP

Micro…

- Edward P harty/Limerick: 2/6, 5 places…+2.25 SP
- Seamus Fahey/Limerick: 2/6, 3 places…+3 SP

***

Right, that is it for this festive stats bonanza. I hope that gives you all (and me!) plenty to get stuck into over the next few days. Some of those big race trends/stats are very strong and should help produce decent shortlists with any luck – then just a case of picking the right ones to back!

I am hoping the Boxing Day cards will be up in HorseRacebase by tomorrow at some point as I can then get cracking. I will no doubt email out on Boxing Day but in case I dont, any race analysis/tips will be up by 11am at the latest, all the way through to 2nd Jan.

***

Good Luck

## 23 Responses

Thanks josh,appreciate the hard work,P.S im off to Market rasen on boxing day,so if anything stands out,would appreciate a heads up-cheers,

Cheers Michael, I will have a look. The long distance chase will definitely get some attention from me, as for the rest if there are any interesting stats I will try and highlight them. If you have a copy of the jumps guide, print of the appropriate page!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, Josh.

I much appreciate your daily efforts.

Many thanks Chris, and a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you too.

Thank you josh for all the excellent information and stats also your tips you have provided for us members,looking forward to 2016 with you i wish you a merry christmas a very happy and prosperus new year.

Happy christmas Josh 🙂 hopefully we can all smash boxing day this year!!!

Love these posts Josh, something to keep me occupied the next few days with the lack of racing.

Happy Christmas and a profitable New Year to you!

Merry xmas josh

tx for sharing all your hard work

great read josh

merry xmas

Thanks for all your efforts and much appreciated. Just to say a happy Christmas and a prosperous new year

All the best for Christmas and the New Year ..thanks for all the info etc., for the past year..always a good read and informative..cheers

Really enjoy reading your blog and your analysis. Have a great Christmas.

Pat

Thank you for the hard work and stats. Happy Xmas and New Year to you Josh.

great work josh merry xmas

Merry Christmas and Happy NewYear to you Josh thanks for all the hard work you put in

i am a newbie here Josh and wow thats a lot of info going to Cheltenham on New Years day any pointers would be helpful,Merry Christmas and a happy New year

Kenneth

Merry Christmas Josh, your attention to detail is amazing. I hope you have a great Christmas and a very profitable end to the year.

Stuart

Thanks for all your effort Josh.Have a brilliant christmas and a prosperous new year.

Your an absolute star Josh – Massive thanks for all you hard work and effort throughout the year

Keep em comin

Jo

Hi Josh….I think you’ve saved me an afternoon going through some of the Boxing Day races plus the Welsh national too on HRB (Horseracebase)…this is by far and away the best set of trends/pointers I’ve seen this year for Saturday’s Boxing day meeting.

Have a good Christmas

Martin

Thanks Martin, no problem, that’s why I am here! That approach to the stats, and the type I look at, has been pretty good at getting the right shortlist so far.

Thanks for your kind words and festive best wishes everyone, very much appreciated.

Josh

Yes cheers for all the graft put in peeps don’t realise how hard it is so respect