BOXING DAY: MEMBERS REPORT (COMPLETE)

UPDATE: (more for my records)… Tips = +0.8 points / BRP = + 8 points…. +8.8 points total. 

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Well the big day is here. I am hoping a more focused approach pays off and I have had a good look at three more races, in addition to the King George. Unfortunately Wetherby has been called off, as well as Chepstow. The Welsh National will now be run on the 9th Jan. 

There are also a handful of ‘Today’s Stats/Angles’ horses for you to have a look at also, if you wish. 

Right, let’s start with the micro systems…

MICRO SYSTEMS 

December Trainers

1.20 Hunt – Mansonien Las (14/1<) PU

2.00 Kempt – Tea for Two (12/1<) WON 5/2

2.45 MR – Ubaltique (14/1<) UP

Jumps Handicappers 

1.05 Winc – Master Neo (12/1<) UP

1.10 Weth – Silver Shuffle (12/1<) 

1.35 MR – Fergal Mael Duin (14/1<) UP

2.05 Font – Beau Lake (20/1<) UP

2.40 Font – Anda De Grissay (12/1<) UP

2.55 Weth – Firth Of The Clyde (12/1<) NR

3.45 Kempt – Little Boy Boru (20/1) NR (ran at Wincanton, unplaced)

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BONUS…not that we need any more micro system horses to look at but there is a qualifier for the G McPherson revised system from last week’s Diary Post…

1.00 MR – Money Maid (any odds) UP

There is also a micro angle for Sue Smith looking at her chasers at Bangor, Carlisle and Sedgefield…she is 28/100, 51 places with this angle in last 5 years…

2.30 Sedge – Red Danaher (12/1<) 2nd 6/1

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TIPS

1.05 Winc – Cardinal Rose – 1 pt win – 7/1 (B365/PP) NR

2.10 MR – Barton Gift – 1 pt EW – 14/1 (PP) 12/1 (general) 3rd (14s became more widely available for a time after posting) +1.8 points 

3.25 Winc – Minella Definitely – 1 pt win – 13/2 (general) UP – 1 point 

 

I wont write up everyone of these races in same vein as KG below but suffice to say I have been through every race in depth and haven’t cut any Christmas corners.

Cardinal Rose – 7s is big for me here – the only real question is the ground but it is an unknown, rather than she definitely doesnt handle it. I think 7s allows the chance, especially as her sire’s offspring generally dont struggle in soft/heavy. She is 2/5, 4 places now over fences and looks to be going the right way. She could get an easy lead here and has jumped well to date. She was an ‘eye-catcher’ of mine in a weekly diary post when running at Ludlow – I then missed her when winning at 5s LTO – idiot! There is every chance she comes on again for that and if going through the ground could take some pegging back. 

The fav is also progressive but is short enough here given he does have to prove his stamina in this ground and is also stepping up in class. The Venetia Williams horse has to be taken seriously and my gut says this may be his race – but I cant touch 7/2 about a horse who is 0/14, 6 places. His placed form is decent but he is frustrating and he also has to prove his stamina. I am happy to see him win as I am content for why I am taking him on. If he were 8/1 + say, given trainer’s boxing day record etc I would have had a go I suspect. 

Barton Gift – 14s with PP seems an insult to me for this horse. Now, first things first, if this ground is genuinely soft, with not too much heavy in places, he should run his race. If it is actually heavy, than I/we have just lost 2 points. He has three PUs to his name on Heavy ground – he just doesnt like it. You can excuse both runs this season – firstly he has never done much on his reappearance and the ground LTO was a valid excuse. On soft ground over fences he is 3/6, 4 places. The blinkers return (2/5) which could add an extra spark. Most importantly he stays very well and if his occasional shoddy jumping holds together, he will make this price look silly. 

Ultimatum Du Roy -5s- looks the main danger and I have had a saver to cover my stake – I deliberated making him a bet also but decided to stick to just the big priced one. The trainer has a good record here with chasers and this horse is progressive. You are taking a chance he improves for the step up in trip but that looks likely. NotABotherBoy is progressive but short enough having won weak chases at Sedgefield. The trainer doesnt have the best record with chasers here either. Soudain is a stayer and I believe won this in 2012. That was for a different trainer, who could get him ready first time out. But, this is a tough race after such a break against race fit rivals. If he is spot on he would run his race, that is the chance you take. The Newland horse gets first time blinkers,which is the only way in as his form to date is uninspiring. He is 0/4, 0 places beyond 3m in handicaps so far. 

Minella Definitely – This horse won this race last year for his local trainer – who is in form again, if he has ever been out of it – and I wonder if this has been the target. 13/2 felt a tad generous. There is not a single horse in this field who looks like they want a slog in the mud so I think it will be a case of who handles it best. He has won with cut in and won a novice hurdle in heavy – which may not mean much if he was just better than his rivals – but it is a positive. When on song he usually goes from the front – so it was interesting he was held up LTO! He carries 7lb more than for that victory here last season but that wouldn’t have stopped him then for me. He beat the Dartnall horse that day, and I see no reason why he wont do so again. 

Key To The West is interesting but does need to get his head infront. He may like the better ground and the fact they put him into a C2 at Cheltenham says something to me. He now 1/12 over fences and does need to step up on recent efforts, which is possible. I am happy to take on the rest. The Tizzard horse needs further but could come into it if this was a real slog – he could be staying on late.

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BIG RACE PREVIEWS 

1.45 Wetherby 

Dolatulo – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (BF/ToteS) 9/2 general (as of 15.19, 24/12) 

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3.10 Kempton: King George VI Chase 

Cue Card – 2 points win – 4/1 (Paddy Power/WH – Go with PP, money back free bet is second to SP fav) WON +9 points

Smad Place – 1 point win – 9/1 (PP/BV/Coral – as above, go with PP) UP -1 point 

IMPORTANT: There is the PP offer, but one reader has just commented, as you will see, that Ladbrokes will give money back as a free bet up to £25 if the SP Fav (which will surely be DC) wins. That is a good offer. They are 7/2 CC and 8/1 Smad (all bookies 8/1 now) and those two bookies look to be the ones to focus on. Ladbrokes have clearly taken a stance on DC which is no bad thing for us!

There are not too many useful trends for this in truth, nothing that really narrows down the field. And, in any case, given the number of runners a strict trends approach may not be too desirable. Having said that finishing 4th or worse LTO is a negative and that removes Irish Cavalier and Ballynagour – and in any case surely they are not good enough to go close in this. 

Let’s start with the selections. Firstly, I believe they have both had the same wind op over the summer and have come back different horses. After Smad’s victory at Kempton, King described the op and how one day his grey was stumbling around the yard like a drunk- simply unable to breathe. Cue Card was going to win the 2013 King George from SS when I think the same thing probably happened, as he just stopped. This issue wasnt a case of ‘you either breathe or you cant’, more a flap of skin that could just move and suddenly stop you from breathing. Once this has happened to a horse once I suspect a lot is psychological from there on in, esp when asked for maximum effort. Anyway, neither have any excuses on that front now…

So, in a sense all form in previous seasons could be deemed a but irrelevant, especially form over a testing trip, in testing ground like this race. 

I will start with Smad Place – 9s is a tad generous and at the forefront of my mind is how I left Many Clouds, never to back him again, after he won his Hennessy – and I don’t want to be doing that with this horse. It is hard to weigh up that Hennessy run but I am convinced it is the best run 3m+ handicap chase of the season and he did demolish them. He looks to be getting better. He stays, jumps well (and a tad to the right) and will be in the perfect position – either in the van going a pace Hutchinson is happy with, or maybe striding alongside Cue Card as they let SS and Vautour destroy each other up top. This is only his 11th chase, he has gone close in a few G1s before, and I cannot say with confidence that he isn’t getting better. He could well be just below this level and others have better chase form to date, but I can’t leave him alone at 9s. 

Cue Card – I have convinced myself he is winning this – or at the very worst PP are giving me a free bet as he chases home ‘The Don’. He is without doubt a different horses this year and he couldn’t have been more impressive on his last two starts. He handles the track and he has proven his stamina the last twice, following that op. 4s just seems a bit generous to me, and he should not be bigger than Vautour. He is another who could be getting better. His jumping is a massive asset around here, as his is versatility. They may try and restrain Vautour to get the trip and if so he could be sent to the front and that will be that. If not he is now more than happy to sit just behind. As his trainer has said, they can ride him how they like now. I can’t see him not being in contention jumping the last. 

What of the rest…

Valseur Lido is rated 157 and is surely not good enough. Al Ferof is now 10 and I am yet to be convinced he stays this trip – well he has never stayed it under rules, although not many tries. He ran in this last year and plugged on into third. If the main contenders run up to form I can’t see him winning this. SS – well something looks up with him and Nicholls was quick to make excuses last run, saying he wanted two weeks more. Well, CC won that last race with plenty in hand to my eye so even if he does improve again, I would like to think CC will have his measure. That last run was just too poor for me and this KG is arguably stronger than any of those he has won, esp now CC finished off his races stronger. 

So, that leaves the Irish hot pots. I can’t have Vautour and if he wins this hats off to him. He is exuberant and he has to prove his stamina. I don’t want to take 10/3 on a horse who has to prove on the track that he stays in what will be the hottest chase of the season to date. The last day he also jumped out to his left a bit and little chinks like that find you out at this level. I am happy for him to prove me wrong – although I do hope he is sent to front and softens up SS, with my two just tracking the pair, ready to pick up pieces. He is an exciting prospect for sure but I cant have him at the prices. 

That leaves Don Cossack – without doubt the best looking horse I have ever seen track side. I was at Aintree last season when he won well and he looked magnificent. That was a weak race where he beat CC – who clearly had his issues and was racing over a trip too short, esp on that ground. I don’t know what he has beaten really in truth. Yes he stuffed Djackadam but whereas he had an easy race at Aintree, Djackadam had a very hard race at Cheltenham for a 6yo. Cue Card actually wasnt too far away in that race either, evidently not finishing off his race again. He is entitled to win this clearly, but he is 9/4, and I don’t see any value in that. He may well be held up off the pace as well which is dangerous here. The leaders wont come back which means he will have to jump at an increasing pace, which could lead to errors. This season he has dotted up at odds on as he was meant to do. The 56 day break is a bit more than I would like as well. I think there are chinks and am happy to take him on. If he wons this well then clearly he is a sure thing to go close in the big one at Cheltenham. 

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So, for me CC at 4s is a tad too big and we are sure to be cheering jumping the last couple. Smad also looks overpriced and although he may crack as the classier ones go on, at 9s, given his profile and form, I couldn’t resist.  

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Those prices are available as of 17.52 on the 23/12/15. 

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TODAY’ STATS/ANGLES 

(remember these are not Tips, more pointers to help in your own analysis. I have looked at the horse in question but not the opposition etc)

12.15 Hunt – Safran De Cotte – 10/1 – Daly is 4/8, 5 places with his handicap hurdlers here which caught my eye. This chaser is completely out of form and returns to hurdles here for the first time in a while. He is now very well handicapped and maybe he doesnt like jumping fences anymore. I don’t really like those switching from chasing to hurdles but this is a weak race and if he ran to his best he would win, simple as that really. But, given his recent form, that is a big if as he does look out of sorts. This could just be a last roll of the dice. UP

1.50 Hunt – Drumbeg West – 33/1 –  The trainer is 3/8, 5 places with handicap hurdlers here, this horse 1/2, 2 places over hurdles at the track. All race conditions fine and that price looked big to my eyes, but maybe that is for a reason. The old boy Ratify 10/1 – also looked interesting when just having a cursory glance at those who would be suited to the race (using the Geegeez ‘instant expert’ tab) 2nd (agonising) 

2.25 Hunt – Jack By The Hedge 8/1 – I will just mention him as I backed him LTO at a price, expecting a bit of money to arrive, which it didn’t really from memory. He jumped well, and looked like the winner a couple from home, before appearing to tire. (first run in 70+ days) He goes up against some more experienced chasers in here but could get into a rhythm out in front which would enhance his chance. One to keep an eye on moving forward at a lowly level as he is unexposed. UP

There were a couple of pointers for Limerick from the stats I unearthed but that meeting has just been called off. 

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That is all for today. 7 points across the tips which is manageable and allows the afternoon to be enjoyable whatever happens! Hopefully a few of the micro systems go well and we get a cracking King George. 

Good Luck. I will be back tomorrow by 11am latest.  

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

17 Comments

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  • A very interesting write up Josh. Cue Card is a horse i have followed since he won the Chelt bumper as a 4.Y.O. He was trained as a 2 miler and got beat in the Supreme(4th) and the Arkle (2nd).In 2012 they put him in the King George where he was beaten 20 lengths by Long Run. It was decided he could stay 3m races and won the Betfair at Haydock beating ‘Conti’ by 5 3/4 lengths.However, in the King George that year he emptied like a drain from 2 out and was beaten 3 ,1/2 lenghts by ‘Conti’. In 2014 he had another go at the King George and was beaten by ‘Conti’ again this time by 13 lengths. This season he won a ‘gimme’ race at Wetherby (Sam Winner was giving him 10lb !!) and won the Betfair easily from ‘Conti’. So the magic has been done by tweaking his wind and all previous form is irrelevant. What is not irrelevant is this horse is doseage weak with regards stamina. He can win races around easy track Haydock but this will be his 4th go at winning the King George. At a few days short of 10 i cannot have it that this wind op will make him a stayer. He also is not this great jumper of fences people believe he is.He makes bad mistakes. This is a very talented horse and in Oct/Nov (6 of his 12 wins) and small fields 3m on easy tracks he can look brilliant. He has raced against Don Cossack twice and has been bt 15 1/2 lengths and 27 lengths. I think the ‘Don will have to make a lot of serious mistakes(he can hit a few) for Cue Card to finish in front of him.’Silvianico’ could be on the decline but don’t be surprised if Nicholls has him spot on for one last big run on Saturday. I agree with you about Vautour. I see him more as a Ryanair horse. Cue Card won a Ryanair when his wind was all wrong!! If you believe that expect a visit from a large man in a red coat with a huge white beard on Friday. Merry Christmas everybody and good wishes for a prosperous new year.

    Roddo 2 years ago Reply


  • I didnt have room to comment on Smad Place. The main worry with him is the fact he has not won a grade 1 chase. His performance in this years Hennessey was visually impressive taking the race by the throat and jumping the opposition into submission. His front running style and sound jumping could have some of these in trouble. I am a big fan of the Hennessey for future reference as it produces proper staying form. However,this years race looked a bit sub standard to me. Theatre Guide in second and Flight Lieutenant in third doesn’t look standout form to me. Fingal Bay and ‘Saphir’ have hardly franked the form. The proximity of The Giant Bolster in seventh also is a worry as all his best form is in Jan- March.. Another one with a wind op to bring about improvement!. This lad had two placed efforts in world hurdles and a narrow defeat in the R.S.A. so no stamina doubts about him. I think he will go close and is a good each way bet but can see the classier horses going past him in the straight. For me if Don Cossack puts an above average round of jumping in he wins. The main worry about that is Smad Place could get him in trouble. A very intriguing race and one i will be watching rather than punting in.

    Roddo 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Roddo, all valid points, and maybe a small/no interest would be wise but I couldn’t resist. I can’t have Don Cos at that price and if he beats this lot well then fair play, but for me he does have a few questions to answer- in context of him being 9/4. The breathing issues are interesting, my understanding from comments King made after Hennessy (where he indicated he though CC had the same thing done) suggested that it wasnt a case of they either cant breathe or not – rather this flap of skin can suddenly move and stop a horse from breathing. Now, I suspect once this happens once it is then psychological for the horse – they will know if they put it all in near end they may stop breathing/struggle…hence the weak finishing. Anyway, on what they have done on the track this season they both look improved/better chasers for me over 3m+ – Tizzard says he is a different horse and was telling everyone who would listen that was the case before his last two wins. At the odds I am more than happy to chance the pair — if he runs out of gas this year over the last couple then fair enough, we will know for next time!! I suspect he wont though.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Can i just wish Josh, his family, and all contributors to this blog a Very Merry Christmas.

    Allan 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Allan, you too.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Ladbokes fav wins MB king george up to £25 shops aswell

    mozzer 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Mozzer, good spot.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Merry Christmas all!

    Silver Shuffle also engaged 1.55 Sedgefield if anyone interested in this system bet

    Ali 2 years ago Reply


  • …Silviniaco conti surely has to be an excellent each way bet …2.55 Wetherby firth of clyde has a good chance also hendersons hurldlers at Kempton have to be of interest ,, hope everyone has a nice Christmas..

    harold 2 years ago Reply


  • I backed barton gift aswell josh think its got a great chance like you say tho praying ground don’t ride heavy went for shocking times in the 1.05 wincanton had your one as a danger but now n/r so very hopefull with mine astigos to me is a lay bet all day long long good luck everyone with your bets heres looking forward to the coming year will be using this site a lot for its trends and stats advice and the tips im impressed with the content on this site well done josh keep up the good work

    antony church 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Antony, welcome aboard! It will be a fun ride in the coming weeks, months and years – and if the past is anything to go by, profitable as well – over time! Barton Gift would make it a great day indeed and if it is not heavy I would be very disappointed if he was not in there pitching over the last couple. GL

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Great stuff Josh, only thing i have to add is that bet victor new coustomers bet £10 get £60 in free bets for kempton today. Worth a bash 🙂

    james.b 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Thanks for all the info, not had too much time to look through the stats today. One I like at Wolves 15.40 Beatabout The Bush. Seasons Greetings everyone.

    Roy Bedford 2 years ago Reply


  • Hats off to you josh and well tipped.The horse proved me wrong and outstayed Vautour. Today was his day.I will lay it all day in the gold cup and hopefully win some money off it.Well done again Josh

    Roddo 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Roddo, yes that worked out well enough in the end. A great race. Can’t see Vautour staying a GC given he was able to dictate from the latter half of race and I can’t see any excuse. Still young though and time. I can’t say for sure that CC wont stay the gold cup trip and I wont be rushing to lay him!! Having said that Paddy thought he had emptied him so maybe you are right – although with no Coneygree it may not be as frantic a pace as last year which would help his chance. You would have to fancy Don Cossack I think around there – looks like he could outstay them all in that kind of test. Will come back to him up hill.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Well done with the Card you played, Josh; it was almost a no bet race for me except that I took 6/1 Al Ferof for a place at half way, because that was real value. The race was a Christmas treat and the Cue did his utmost to win. As Roddo says, he’s not a Gold Cup prospect but I hope they take their chance for the bonus as that will give the race an added boost. Let’s hope for as big a thrill as today.

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Chris, and good bet on Al Feror, ran a blinder all things considered.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


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