Members Report: 22/12/15 (COMPLETE)

The micro systems continued to tick along with an easy 5/2 winner and a decent 6/1 second – he looked like winning at one point and I am not sure if Tom Scu went too soon or he just ran out of puff a bit near the end, which would be no surprise given his absence. Two of the ‘Stats’ horses ran well, a 10/1 3rd and a 7/2 second who was caught late. The other two didn’t run very well at all. 


(to be used as a pointer to help with your own analysis) 

1.10 Wolvs – Sabato – 6/1 (general) Appleby remains in good form and according to my guide is/was 4/7, 5 places with his 2yo handicappers here in the winter months. He is 5/19, 8 places with all handicap debutants here. In what looks at open race, 6s looked fair to me. You associate his being shorter/well backed so it will be interesting what the market does as that could be telling. 

1.30 South – Trojan Rocket – 25/1 (general) This is a bit left field and clearly a punt if you decide he is worthy of support. The trainer is 7/27 here with all runners and in the last 14 days has had 5 runners/2 places. The pace angle caught my eye and his impressive speed rating. I hope he is sent to the front as he could reward some EW support – this is his first run in a while but he has won after a break like this, has won from a higher mark and has a touch of class. Plenty of ifs and buts, although he did finish within 2 lengths of winner when running here for the first time over 6f. He looked interesting to me at a price. Of course he may well need the run, we shall see. He has won at big prices so that does not put me off and he has stayed 7f before, although that is also an unknown on this surface. 

3.40 Wolvs – Indira – 9/1 PP/WH – I am not sure if this horse has just been tipped somewhere but her price went from a general 12s and crashed as I was writing into a general 8/1. Berry doesnt send many here but he is 3/6 in 3yo+ handicaps here in the winter months – which against an overall record of 5/37 in last 5 years doesnt look too bad. This horse is one of the few who is in form and a repeat of that run at Kempton LTO will surely see her go close. She is unexposed over this sort of trip on the AW. 

Finally, I will start to use these sections to also highlight any interesting pace angles, that will hopefully have some stats to accompany them, but not always. 

In the 2.30 South – Yul Fine Gold and the 2.40 Wolvs Mr Christopher – both have impressive speed ratings, both like to front run and come here at the top of their games. Now, individually they are a bit short for me, but combined in a double would pay 8/1. That isn’t a bet a play too often but as it is Christmas I have had a small dabble! In theory they should both go well but I will leave if for you to have a close look. 

Good Luck. 


No potential qualifiers tomorrow. 


Signing off 09.36


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3 Responses

  1. Yup, Indira has been put up by our old friend Hugh Taylor. Was 12’s, or supposedly, at time the piece was written, but as usual has now crashed.

  2. Think the bigger priced stat angles are going to be worth following …i.e. the 25/1 Trojan rocket drifting to 40s of these is going to come in soon enough ..liking the thought process behind these …well done Josh especially when being brave enough to change things slightly when one angle isn’t working out quite as as expected .as in the short lists..

    1. Thanks Harold…yes I think you are right with the bigger priced ones, over time the profits will be decent enough I suspect. I think this approach to the daily stats, rather than through ‘tips’ on the shortlist, will ensure I don’t leave big priced horses with solid stats on my notepad. And it is all much clearer, you know I have only looked at the horse in depth, and you can use my assessment, plus your interpretation of the objective stats to decide how you want to play them etc. I was tying myself up in knots before – knowing I didnt have time to look through a race properly, or not confident in that race type, I would just leave some horses on my notepad and a few decent ones have gone in.

      You will also know that when I ‘tip’ I have looked through the race in as much depth as possible. I think this is the right balance, and we shall see how it goes. This approach will find big priced winners.

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