I have written a results review post so I will not dwell on results here. But, +45 points for the systems this month has been a decent return and, along with the previous haul from the systems since August, gives us plenty of ammo to play with moving forward. You will have seen the new ‘December Trainers’ post – I am really looking froward to backing Nick Williams runners. All that is left is for me to try and replicate the systems performance with my own tipping efforts. I feel like I am slowly getting there but can clearly do a bit better. Still, a couple of decent winners will put us in a good position, and it is a long haul this jumps season.
***
The Hennessy
I was pleased with my analysis and write up of that race. I spent some time identifying what looked like key stats to me and it was pleasing that the shortlist of 4 included the winner and the second. I went for a decent EW bet on the second at 20/1 > 12/1 SP. Hopefully it was clear that I thought Smad Place was edging towards a backable price and I had a bit on when he hit 9s – I couldn’t resist – even more so after I had just watched another Williams chaser hack up at Bangor at 8/1. She had a brilliant month and that is an angle we can look forward to again next year.
Anyway, back to the Hennessy. Firstly, Theatre Guide didn’t jump a fence and he did well to get second. If he had jumped like Smad Place they would have been fighting it out at the finish – i have no doubt about that. I don’t know how he still had energy left at the end. Brennan was angry with himself, I think for his initial position (i expected him to track the pace, or be midfield at worse) and he then rushed him a tad – leading to a near race ending blunder at the first. From there he was always chasing, making error after error. Now, he isn’t a great jumper, (although I didn’t think he would be that bad!) and I would want a decent price if backing him again in future. If he jumped well then he could win at Graded level, but he is well handicapped and it will be interesting where they go next. I will be interested in him for his next few starts. He could have a decent race in him, if jumping. He probably needs a long run in after the last because he will always have ground to make up on any horses in front. But, that was some performance all things considered.
Smad Place – what a lovely horse and its great to see Alan King banging in big Saturday winners. This horse had a breathing op over the summer and it has clearly made the difference. This info wasnt available pre race to the masses – and that needs addressing – but his performance at Kempton indicated he was a horse to take seriously. We should not underestimate this performance. Taken on for the lead a few times, he did not hang about. To stay there, to jump and stay as he did in that ground, and to put the distance he did back to the rest – was impressive. I backed Many Clouds in last year’s race, and failed to back him again that season. I will try and not make the same mistake with Smad. I think that performance could put him in the reckoning for the Gold Cup but it will be interesting what they do with him next. He just kept galloping and maybe he will stay further – A National Type maybe?
***
A quick word on the trends…I have discovered a new stat type I had not looked or used before in Horse Race Base – and that is looking at the win and place record of winners on their last few starts. It was telling that 17/18 Hennessy winners had placed at least once on last 3 starts. So, I will be using those moving forward for big races and hopefully such stats help highlight a few winners in the months ahead. That wasn’t a stat I had really considered before but clearly having a horse in form for a big race makes sense.
The category is down as : H-Run (last win) ; H-Run (last place)
***
Eye-Catchers
Russe Blanc
I tipped him during the week where he came a valiant second. He looks like a galloper – a poor man’s Smad Place maybe! Lacking a change of gear he looks like he could keep going the same pace all day. Over a marathon trip and/or up a very stiff finish looks to be his thing. I think he could have a decent staying chase in him somewhere. He is usually a sound jumper and could have a squeak more improvement in him. The mud is no problem and he is one to keep onside.
Harry’s Farewell
He beat Russe Blanc at Newbury and it was impressive. I was hoping he would need the run and would tire but he kept galloping. He jumped well on the whole and that was only his 7th chase start. He also didn’t get an easy lead which made it more impressive. He also comes from a small yard so it likely to be underestimated in the market. 24f+ on soft/heavy is clearly no issue and he still looks progressive. These two pulled a bit ahead of the rest and hopefully the form holds.
The Last Samuri
He ran well at Newcastle and I am kicking myself for abandoning Wakanda who I backed LTO. He was 8s in the morning. I had a niggle over stamina and thought he may get taken on early. He was, but he jumped for fun and t was stamina that won the day. He is still progressing and is worth keeping onside. He is quite small so the fence size/difficulty could be important. The Last Samuri was fit enough I think but seemed to get a bit outpaced before rallying. He ran well enough without getting close enough to the front two. He could come on for the run and he did jump very well. He could want further and maybe he is a future long distance staying chaser as well. One to keep onside.
***
MICRO SYSTEM
I always like to try and find a micro angle for you to take away and hopefully use to profit moving forward. I am not sure why I scribbled this down during the week (must have had a winner) but looking at my note pad I could see ‘Harry Fry and Mares – research’
So, I have been digging and well yes, this young trainer seems to have the Midas touch with the ladies.
Now, young Harry is operating at a staggering 25% with all of his runners – he has had 460 odd now since 2012, and backing them all would have won +70 odd points. Remarkable stats.
With ‘Mares’ Only…
- Mares (not fillies)
- Non-Handicaps (all race types, and not just mares only)
- Class 1-4 Only
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 43 | 22 | 51.16 | 38.4 | 30 | 69.77 | 89.3 | 46.18 | 107.4 | 19.36 | 1.58 | |
| 2015 | 13 | 7 | 53.85 | 10.71 | 10 | 76.92 | 82.38 | 13.02 | 100.15 | 8.96 | 1.62 | |
| 2014 | 14 | 6 | 42.86 | 4.54 | 8 | 57.14 | 32.43 | 4.46 | 31.89 | 2.59 | 1.19 | |
| 2013 | 11 | 6 | 54.55 | 6.9 | 9 | 81.82 | 62.73 | 8.6 | 78.22 | 5.45 | 1.67 | |
| 2012 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 16.25 | 3 | 60 | 325 | 20.1 | 401.94 | 2.36 | 3.16 |
These winners come from 8 different mares. In C5/6 he is 1/14, 5 places, -10.5 to date.
With horses priced 10/1 or under he is: 36 bets / 22 wins / 28 places / +45.4 / AE 1.64
Quiet phenomenal stats. He is 0/7, 1 place with horses sent off over 12/1 so far. By taking opening show odds you could have won +27 more points above SP.
So, don’t take on a Harry Fry Mare, that appears to be the message. This looks like a decent little angle to add into any portfolio and I suppose I may as well start posting potential ‘qualifiers’ in the Daily Posts, esp as Lavelle and Fahey are now finished.
***
As always your comments are welcome. Were there any horses to enter your notebook during the last week?
2 Responses
Two other races stood out at Newbury for me, Arzal 1245, 13l and eased in a fast time for Harry Whittington.
In the last, I backed Whispering Harry, who came to win but was overtaken by Grey Gold; I think they can be followed on soft/heavy going.
Two good shouts Chris – i generally try and focus on 3m+ eye catchers – but yes can see why you would want to follow those. Arzal has any amount up his sleeve, he could be very smart and not many could cope with pressure he was putting them under – his trainer is one to follow, all his seem to run well at moment. Money came for Whispering Harry and can see why, not sure if out-battles or out-stayed near the end there but go time on his side.