Russe Blanc 1 point win – 13/2 – 2nd 5/1
I think this is the only horse in the race who doesn’t have some kind of question to answer. The only niggles are that he is 3lb about his last win (but is open to a tad more improvement this season potentially – and that 3lb wont be what beats him) and he is probably better RH (but has won LH, and placed here). He is a class winner, ground no problem, he stays, he will be fit and he is consistent. In 15 chase runs to date he has places in 10,(won 3) so we should get a run for our money. His trainer is 3/6 in the last 14 days and 5/18 in last month. He has won on his second start of the season for previous two seasons and will have needed the run LTO. We also have one of the best jockeys in the race on board – 5/31, 9 places with all his chase runs in last couple of years. The fact he has been booked is significant I would hope.
All in, 13/2 looked a bit generous to me given questions over the others.
Wuff – well he has a favourites chance but Nicholls suggested in his Betfair Column that he may need the run – even if he is fit, 9/4 is skinny for a horse that does have it to prove, albeit he is unexposed and could be better than these. But, I am happy to take him on.
With most of the others you are guessing as to fitness and none of them have a brilliant record after a break. I am content to take all those on who are making their reappearance. In general they all have a few other questions to answer as well (Baby Shine 0/5, 1 place beyond 2m6f for example) Belmount has it to prove after the PU LTO and his jockey is 0/16 in chases to date. Lord Landen 0/5, 0 places beyond 2m6f, 0/3, 0 places C3 and he is 10.
I think Russe Blanc looks the most solid here and I can’t see him being too far away. As I said, 13/2 felt generous in the context of the opposition. Hopefully we get a run for our money and he can grind these into submission after the last.
No Shortlist today. There is enough below to sift through. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Newbury Trainers’ perform. I wouldnt advise backing them all blind, but more to use as a guide in your own analysis. But, hopefully they can run well and there are a few winners there.
As always I am interested to hear what you fancy and why, so do comment away!
12.45 South – Daylight (12/1 or under) DNQ
2.55 Taunt – Navanman (14/1 or under) UP (pipes continue to run in and out)
6.40 Chelm – Hoofalong (12/1 or under) WON 7/2
Emma Lavelle (14/1 or under)
12.30 Newb – See The World UP
12.40 Taunt – Prince of Thieves (12/1 or under) DNQ
1.45 Taunt – Fountains Blossom (12/1 or under) 2nd 4/1
2.55 Taunt – Dazinski (12/1 – 14/1 or under) UP 9/2> 2/1
2.55 Taunt – Ourmanmassini (20/1 or under) UP 14/1>10/1
4.00 Taunt – Double Accord (12/1 or under) 2nd 10/1
NEWBURY TRAINER POINTERS
(horses of interest taken from my stats post – Paul Nicholls/Alan King/Phillip Hobbs/David Pipe/Bailey/Fry)
RACE 1 – 12.30
Modus (Nicholls – 7/1<) WON 1/2
Charmix (Fry – winners 7/2 or shorter, small sample) 2nd 9/2
RACE 3 – 1.35
Amanto (Nicholls – 7/1<) UP
Mille Nautique (King – 16/1<) DNQ
RACE 4 – 2.10
Un Temps Pour Tout (Pipe -under 16/1) 2nd 2/1>6/4
RACE 5 – 2.45
Warriors Tale (Nicholls, 7/1<) 2nd 13/2 (head)
Chosen Well (King, 16/1<) UP
The DrinkyMeister (Bailey – all winners 7/1<, 16/1< EW – 4/8,8 places all chasers here since 2010) UP
RACE 6 – 3.15
Stern Rubin (Hobbs, no odds – 7/18, 11 places with handicappers 0 or 1 run last 90 days) WON 4/1
RACE 7 – 3.50
RoyalZaro (Fry, 2/2 in this race, all winners 7/2 or shorter to date)
Kir Royal (King, 16/1<) 3rd 25/1 (14s morning, drifted)