Members Report: 27/11/15 (COMPLETE)

Don’t you just love  a second place?! (4 today for me) Russe Blanc ran a fine race, no complaints there and looked like he could win jumping the last. I was hoping the one in front would start to tire but he was fit and kept going. Still, we beat the market and got a run for our money jumping the last. Russe Blanc will win races this season but he doesnt look to have a turn of gear. He could be a long distance chase type, one of the regional nationals maybe and/or a track with a stiff finish that brings horses back to him. In the tracker. The winner is also one to take moving forward. He is progressive with not many chase starts under his belt and clearly my concerns over race fitness were unfounded. 

He was my main bet at Newbury although I had an interest in the Hobbs winner at 4s, the Nicholls horse that got caught on the line (another second, head) the King horse in same race who faded and the King bumper horse – I backed him to win only 14s this morning, he drifted to 25s and travelled into the race like the winner, only to finish 3rd. Still, an exciting run. So, a ‘wipe my face day’ at Newbury. 

After three great days for the systems (+23 points) the last two havent been great although a 5/2 winner yesterday reduced the damage. Dresden was backed from 9/2>2/1 and made a race ending blunder. Both of AJ Honeyball’s came close seconds, one blundering the last. Frustrating. That is racing, that is systems. Close to a decent day. 

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TIP 

No tip today. 

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The Shortlist 

No shortlist tomorrow given the list of horses below. Working out which ones I wish to back could take me some time! 

The micro systems are a guide and as I have said before they will be judged on how they perform over time, when backed systematically.(and you should have confidence to do that,albeit on some days it can be a lot bets) I will update results at the end of the month as usual. 

My personal preference is to look at each horse in the context of the race and in the first instance ask if I can fully discount the horse – There was one for Suzy Smith at Taunton yesterday (26/11) that I left because he was 0/14 over hurdles and that put me off, for example. I also left the Lavelle qualifier because of the 1/2 fav and danger of Fry’s. But, that is a personal preference, and I will make an error at some point and leave a winner. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers

12.55 Newb – Drumshambo (16/1<)

1.30 Newb – Unique De Cotte (14/1<)

1.45 Muss – Rear Admiral (12/1<)

2.30 Donc – Cactus Valley (12/1<)

2.40 Newb – Niceonefrankie (16/1<)

4.45 Wolv – Bosham (12/1<)

5.45 Wolv – Mountain Man (12/1<)

7.15 Wolv – Hernando Torres (12/1<)

 

Jumps Handicappers

12.15 Donc – Night In Milan (12/1<)

1.20 Donc – Enchanted Garden (12/1<)

3.05 Donc – Trapper Peak (12/1<)

 

NEWBURY TRAINERS 

(to be used as a guide and extra level of info in your own analysis – numbers small to be backed blind, albeit maybe cant go wrong just backing the Hobbs runners, with King not far behind!- famous last words)

RACE 1 – 12.25 

Copain De Classe (PN 7/1<)

Ardamir (King 16/1<)

 

RACE 2 – 12.55 

Bincombe (Hobbs)

 

RACE 3 – 1.30 

Sykes (Hobbs – ‘cappers aged 6/7)

Saint John Henry (Pipe, age 16/1<)

 

RACE 4 – 2.05

Sametegal (PN 7/1<)

Dell’Arca (Pipe 16/1<)

Actival (Fry – wins 7/2 or shorter to date) 

L’Unique (King 16/1<)

 

RACE 5 – 2.40 

Howlongisafoot (7/1<)

Royal Regatta (Hobbs)

 

RACE 6 – 3.15 

Chartbreaker (PN 7/1<)

Board of Trade (King 16/1<)

Champagne on Ice (Pipe 16/1<)

 

RACE 7 – 3.45 

Alibi De Sivola (PN 7/1<)

Baron De Ligniere (PN 7/1<)

Big Chief Benny (16/1<)

Pilgrims Bay (Pipe 16/1<)

Behind Time (Fry, all wins 7/2< to date, small sample)

Dusky Oscar (Fry, as above) 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

7 Comments

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  • I think the going is doing us all you have just got to keep going and it will come right.keep your stakes low for the time being

    Joseph Shannon 2 years ago Reply


    • Yep – although I was pleased to see the rain/change of going for Russe Blanc so I wont use that as an excuse. But, in general, it is a bit boggy and unpredictable- hard to know what the actual going is at most of these tracks.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Hughie Morrisons sweet selection(3yo at Chelmsford-60%) got me back in winners enclosure,all comes round with patience and perserverance

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Not been on for a while. Mainly cos I noticed that you were ‘tipping’ less and using systems and guides more which gives a bit of a ‘fire enough arrows and something will stick approach’. Glad they’re going well and this proves that well thought out guides and systems can be generally successful. Today though highlights one of the problems I have with such an approach. It may well be another profitable day but personally I can’t afford to fire that many arrows to find out and the law of sod will rule in that the ones you leave out will win. Best of luck tho.

    Jim 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Jim…
      fair comment – I think some of my ‘shortlisting; efforts in recent weeks have been poor and volatile for two months now – a critique of ‘fire enough arrows and something will stick’ could well be a valid criticism for those! And that needs addressing.

      The micro systems are what they are, the research is clear and when they throw up a qualifier, they throw up a qualifier – not much I can do about that other than remove some of the systems!

      But, as I have said, they are useful as a guide for your own punting. Knowing a trainer has X win % over time with a type of horse, generally or in a certain month, should help if you like focussing on certain races (handicap chases say, or sprints on AW). But, at the same time, collectively they should be profitable. If you had followed every system bet for 1 point since start of August and had a decent bank – today’s list wouldnt be daunting given the profit levels to date. And a few won’t qualify due to odds.

      But, you are right. The worst thing you can do is dip in to systems and back them systematically every now and then! That is a quick fire way to ruin. If you wish to back them systematically you have to trust the research for starters, then give yourself an adequate bank, and then stick with them.

      Tipping – am trying to focus on 3m+handicap chases and the big race previews to get me back in the groove.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • I think thats fair comment Jim and its a task identifying which ones to back.
    I personally look at form at the distance,stable form and confidence in the market. Obviously there are several other ingredients to help make a selection.
    Today i have looked at seventeen but have only backed Night In Milan.Taking an early price of 9/1 when most of the other bookies had moved to 7/1.Hes now around 4/1.. I may have missed some winners the guide has thrown up but they failed my selection process.

    Roddo 2 years ago Reply


  • Spot on josh,think with the big festivals can be aberations from the norm,so best thing is to have minimum stakes on each,think all the stats are profitable long term,the important thing is to have sufficient arrows left when the gates open and the winners fly in,its only nov yet

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


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