Hennessy Gold Cup Meeting: Trends + Stats

I plan to write a ‘stats/trends’ post every Wednesday to add more value to your experience, and to give some structure to my ramblings.  This post will highlight some trends/stats for a big race or two that are coming up later in the week, usually a big Saturday race. For those of you who like using trends and stats this will hopefully give you a head start in trying to find some value bets. 

For starters some trends and stats for the big race to get stuck into. There are quite a few but I thought they would allow you to pick the ones you find most interesting and hopefully help you draw up a shortlist etc. I plan to preview the race as usual come Friday afternoon, Saturday. 

Following these trends are some Trainer Pointers. As we know history is no guarantee of future success but some of these angles look very exciting indeed.  

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Hennessy Gold Cup: Trends and Stats

18 renewals, 316 runners, 67 places horses

Trends (taken from the trends tool in HRB)

15/18 Top 3 LTO

• 15/172 runners, 46 places… 83% winners, 54% runners, 69% places
• 1/29, 2 places PU LTO / 1/18, 5 places Fell LTO

12/18 priced 8/1 or shorter

• 12/75 runners, 34 places…67% winners, 24% runners, 51% places

10/18 Top 2 in market

• 10/43 runners, 21 places…55.5% winners, 14% runners, 31% places

13/18 Aged 6 or 7

• 13/145 runners, 45 places…72% winners, 46% runners, 67% places
• 5/18 Aged 8 or 9
  • 5/127 runners, 16 places…28% winners, 40% runners, 24% places
• 0/38, 5 places Aged 10+

15/18 – 0 or 1 run this season ONLY

• 15/238 runners,56 places…83% winners, 75% runners, 84% places
• 3/18 2,3,4 runs this season
  • 3/70 runners, 9 places…17% winners, 22% runners, 13% places

No significant ‘Days since Run’ trends

15/18 Carried 11-8 or less

• 3/32 runners, 9 places, carried 11-9 +… 2 of those wins were Denman, who was a Gold Cup horse. This would indicate that you require a G1 horse to win this race of top weight.

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Other Stats (using the ‘query tool’ in HRB)

17/18 – 0 or 1 run only in previous 90 days

• 1/62 runners, 6 places had 2 or more runs in previous 90 days

13/18 – 0 or 1 RUN in Handicap Chases Only  

• 13/93, 33 places…72% winners, 29% runners, 49% places
• 1/63 runners, 9 places had 9+ Runs in Handicap Chases

12/18 – 2 or 3 CHASE wins           

• 12/161 runners, 42 places…67% winners, 51% runners, 63% places
• 0/38, 5 places had 0 or 1 Chase win only to their name

15/18 had 0 or 1 win only in a Handicap Chase

• 15/199 runners, 54 places…83% winners, 63% runners, 81% places

1/18 had 21 or more career runs

• 1/90 runners, 9 places…5.5% winners, 28% runners, 13% places

14/18 had WON at least once in their previous two starts

• 14/148 runners, 33 places…78% winners, 47% runners, 49% places
• 16/18 Had WON at least once in previous 4 runs
• 2/74, 16 places had not won at least once in previous 4 runs

17/18 PLACED on at least one of their last two starts

• 1/71, 9 places had not

13/18 finished 1^st or 2^nd on their racing debut

• 13/180 runners, 48 places…72% winners, 57% runners, 72% places

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Horses running in headgear…

• Blinkers: 0/18, 1 place
• Cheekpieces: 1/22, 6 places
• Visor: 0/7, 2 places

Horses that ran over hurdles LTO are: 0/24, 2 places

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TRAINERS (of note)

• N Henderson: 3/18, 8 places… +15.5 SP
• P Nicholls; 3/34, 11 places…-18.25 SP

They are the only trainers to have won the race more than once in the last 18 years  

• D Pipe: 1/11, 4 places
• Hobbs: 1/17, 4 places
• NTD: 1/18, 2 places
• V Williams: 1/8, 2 places
• A King: 0/11, 0 places
• W Mullins: 0/9, 2 places
• Jonjo: 0/5, 2 places
• Sue Smith: 0/8, 1 place

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NEWBURY HENNESSY MEETING: TRAINER POINTERS (2010-)

 

Paul Nicholls

ALL RUNNERS: 82 bets / 16 wins / 36 places / 19.51% SR / -13.6 / AE 0.89

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• All Non-Handicaps
• 7/1 or shorter SP

21 bets / 10 wins / 14 places / 48% SR / +13.15 SP / AE 1.15

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Taking odds at ‘opening show’ would have been worth an extra +9 points above SP.

With all of his runners priced over 7/1 he is: 1/33, 10 places.

With handicappers priced 7/1 or shorter he is: 5/28, 12 places, -8.75.

If you focus on his Handicappers aged 5 or 6…

11 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 36% SR / +6.25 SP / AE 1.47

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Alan King

46 bets / 11 wins / 22 places / 24% SR / +24.6 SP / AE 1.54

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• All runners
• 8/1 or shorter

27 bets / 10 wins / 17 places / 37% SR / +26.6 SP / AE 1.67

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Those priced 9/1 -16/1 are: 1/10, 5 places, +6 SP

Those priced over 16/1 are 0/9, 0 places so far.

So, all runners, 16/1 or under: 37 bets / 11 wins / 22 places / 30% SR / +33.6 SP / AE 1.62

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• All runners
• 16/1 or shorter
• Aged 3-7 Only

31 bets / 11 wins / 22 places / 36% SR / +39.6 SP / AE 1.8

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He is currently 0/6, 0 places with horses aged 8 and 9 within this odds range. If you placed a 1 point win bet in the Betfair Place Market that would have been worth +23.35 Place SP.

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Nicky Henderson

69 bets / 11 wins / 27 places / 16% SR / -12.16 SP / AE 0.71

It is quite challenging to find a profitable angle for Henderson’s runners. They are generally near the top of the market and it is impossible to gain an edge.

He has had one winner over 7/1 in this time and that was his Hennessy winner.

All runners priced 7/1 or under at the off:

43 bets / 10 wins / 22 places / 23% SR / -7.16 SP / AE 0.74

Even taking opening odds would only win you +8 more points. He clearly has winners here but picking the right ones to come out in front is challenging. He is ‘only’ 5/18, 10 places with favourites, for a loss of -7.66 SP.

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Phillip Hobbs

40 bets / 7 wins / 21 places / 17.5% SR / +51.75 SP / AE 1.65

Hobbs is currently 0/9, 6 places with his non-handicap runners and in the last few years he hasn’t sent many here.

If we just focus on his handicap runners, any odds…

31 bets / 7 wins / 15 places / 23% SR / +60.75 / AE 2.22

He had a blank year in 2010, 0/7, 0 places with such runners, which improves those figures further.

These stats include the win of 10yo Fair Along at 33/1. However, it appears best to focus on the Hobbs handicappers aged 6 or 7…

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• Handicaps
• Age 6 + 7

14 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / 43% SR / +43.75 SP / AE 2.93

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All 6 wins are in handicap chases, currently 0/2, 1 place in handicap hurdles. He is 0/4, 1 place with 4 and 5 year olds.  0/11, 4 places with 8/9 year olds.

Alternatively you could focus on those handicappers that come here fresh:

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• Handicaps
• 0 or 1 run only in previous 90 days

18 bets / 7 wins / 11 places / 39% SR / +73.75 SP / AE 3.66

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From that set, those aged 6 or 7 are: 7 bets / 6 wins / 7 places / 86% SR / +50.75 SP / AE 5.36

All 6 runners since 2011 have won.

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David Pipe

37 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 13.5% SR / -17.52 SP / AE 0.85

Pipes ‘unfancied’ runners, 16/1 or bigger haven’t tended to run too well here: 0/16, 0 places.

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Those priced under 16/1 at the off:

21 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 24% SR / -1.52 SP / AE 0.96

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There are not too many ways to slice and dice these figures further, and given the solid number of places that may not be desirable. But..

Those that won LTO: 7 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 43% SR / +6.73 SP / AE 1.12

Those Aged 5 and 6: 10 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 40% SR / +6.48 SP / AE 1.16

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Two more trainers to note…

Kim Bailey: 15 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 27% SR / +10.5 SP / AE 2.44

Those wins were in 2010-2012, and he is 0/4, 3 places the last two years. Those he sends here usually run well, and given that his yard continues in decent form may be worth a second glance this year.

All winners have been fancied, 7/1 or shorter: 8 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 50% SR / +17.5 SP / AE 3.1

Ignoring odds, all winners have been over fences: 8 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / 50% SR / +17.5 SP / AE 3.33

0/7, 2 places over hurdles so far.

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Harry Fry: 10 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 40% SR / +1.76 SP / AE 1.44

All 4 wins have been in non-handicaps: 7 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 57% SR / +4.76 / AE 1.55

He is 2/2 with his National Hunt Flat runners at the meeting, and 2/5 with his hurdlers. Currently 0/3, 1 place with his chasers.

All winners so far priced 7/2 or shorter: 6 bets / 4 wins / 4 places / 67% SR / +5.76 / AE 1.62

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As always, what you do with these stats is up to you but I would hope they help highlight a few decent bets and hopefully some winners. If there is one thing I have learnt while since doing the ‘monthly trainer’ angles, and the Cheltenham Micro Angle it is that current trainer form is important. If a trainer is cold going into a meeting like this you should tread with caution.

I will do my best to highlight relevant runners on each day.

Good Luck