Members Report: 18/11/15 (COMPLETE)

THE SHORTLIST 

2.35 Hexham – Toarmandowithlove – 20/1 (general) – ‘Team Corbett’ are 4/12, 6 places when teaming up here in handicap hurdles. This horse hasn’t shown much to date but that may have been by design and he makes his handicap debut here. The trainer is 1/6, 2 places +35 SP with handicap debutants in the last 5 years. This horse is top rated in the race, which given his form, says a lot about the rest. Every one of the opposition has a question or two to answer whether it is form,stamina, liking for the ground etc. It is a poor quality race and I am happy to chance this 20/1 shot. The ground is a real unknown for most of these and the selection may or may not handle it. He went close in a soft ground bumper here and the sire offers some hope. 

3.00 Chepstow – Petite Fantasie – 20/1 (general) – Maybe it is a fantasy for this one to go in but the trainer is 4/16, 8 places with handicap hurdlers here. The profit (+2SP) suggests most are fancied but I found it hard to say that this horse cant win – and the trainer has had numerous big priced hurdle winners, so he isnt a ‘money trainer’. In an awful race a repeat of his run 3 starts ago at Fontwell would see him go close here. I don’t know what happened next time out but it is possible he needed the run over an inadequate trip last time at Exeter. His speed figure on the cards I use (Geegeez) is also the second best in the race, and miles ahead of the rest. That is a positive. Precious Ground is in form and if stepping forward on his last run would go close. Tim Vaughan is in awful form at the moment which would make me nervous about his at the price, and the rest havent done much yet. Most have questions over the ground to answer and it feels like a race where there could be an upset. He could be tailed off but if you cant take the odd risk with 20/1 shots, you never will. 

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That is it for tomorrow. I did have a good look at the 2.30 Chepstow but found myself going round in circles. I think you could make a case for most in here but at the same time they all have something to prove. Boyfromnowhere could hack up as the market suggests. He is effectively 18lb below his last win and has probably been rejuvenated by the switch of stables. But, he is short enough now. Castarnie – his trainer has a shocking record with horses running after a break, all needing the run to date. Smart Exit ticks a lot of profile boxes but I am not sure as to the depth of his form. Crackofthunder and Brownville are both unexposed but were both disappointing on their last starts and need to step up. Big Society – if he put it all together has the ability to win this. He was well backed last time but never got into it – maybe not liking the blinkers. Not one to trust at the moment and still to win a chase. Safran De Cotte still hasnt won a handicap chase from 10 starts, but has placed form to go close here. He can hit the odd fence. Nail M’s level of form looks a bit poor to me and he will need to step up- 0/9, 0 places in all career runs with 8+ runners. Georgian King looks to exposed.

That left me having a long stare at the bottom two, Bashford Ben and Paddy The Oscar, both 20s. The former is better RH (1/13 in chases LH, 3/6 RH) and again the level of his form could be questionable, but he could outrun his odds. PTO is a ‘young’ 12yo – this only his 8th handicap chase. I deliberated for a time with him – but ultimately he is 12 and there are a lot of unexposed ones in here – I think it could be asking too much for the rest to all under-perform, albeit I think he will outrun his odds. His run LTO was maybe just a bit too poor, even if he needed it. We shall see. It looks a minefield and if you ignored the fav you would want a decent priced one on your side. 

I also looked at the 4.55 Kempton – and if you like your nurseries you should note that Jarvis is 3/7, 4 places with handicap debutants at the track and likewise Moore is 4/20, 8 places. Their two are around 14s, and maybe that is worth chancing. I found myself guessing too much in what looks a very open race, with many more fancied ahead of them in the market. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

November Trainers 

5.25 Kemp – Little Salamanca (14/1 or under)

‘AW Switchers’ 

7.25 Kemp – Saab Almanal (any odds,JF does have odd biggy go in)

Jumps Handicappers 

12.40 War – Dazinski (12/1 or under)

12.55 Hex – Seventeen Black (12/1 or under)

2.30 Chep – Nail’M (12/1 or under)

3.20 War – Smartmax (12/1 or under)

3.40 Hex – Tekthelot (12/1 or under)

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FREE REPORT

There is a link below in the comments to a free report with some stats for Southwell All-Weather. I did email this out but it is below if you missed it…

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. My own personal stab in the dark is Smartmax 3.20 warwick, after Crospark obliging for me today,admittedly I backed 3 horses in that race to get the winner.Only real positive is trainers record with chasers at warwick and being of my cold list today.Its amazing how someone can come back again and again to criticise someones genuine efforts.I must have made about 30pts on your j fanshawe stats since sept restricting to 4yo+.Keep up the work josh and digging out those angles and niches

  2. I myself back my own tips the ones that have made me a profit every month for well over a tear now .. but have to say this is certainly one of the best sites out there as iits free and I like that it gives you a say…iam critical about certain things but its constructive and I think Josh takes it as such his stats are excellent and indeed I use them myself on occasion…

    1. polite, reasoned comments are always welcome here Harold and I don’t shy away from poor performance – my tipping/shortlisting has been too up and down, and at any point I know how well or poorly I have been doing – I dont need reminding quite so much 🙂 Glad you like the stats, micro systems etc.

  3. Your tipping/shortlisting has been up and down Josh(profitable though) but one person who hasnt been up and down is Harold.A profit every month for well over a year.
    What a glorious opportunity for you to share your methods and selections for a short while. Thats what Josh does.We are all after taking money from the enemy.Learning from a master and making a few quid would be great Harold.You never know it could lead to you becoming a paid tipster. Come on Harold give it a go.

  4. Roddo …if you look at past posts i have on occasion given my thoughts on the days racing also the bets i would be placing on the day ..you would have made a profit off these… i have no interest in becoming a tipster but on occasion will give out my bets as is only fair on here…

  5. Phew!!! thought Dazinski might sneak into the odds range just before the off, so put a small saver on him as I couldn’t see a reason to discount

    1. You and me both! Had a nibble – that is the thing with odds caps – he was teetering – plenty of bookies had him at 12s for a time, 16s in places. It was one of those – he was 0/13, 2 places with those over 12/1 – now 1/14 – as always price is a guide – but he wont count in official results for the system. Glad you had a go, good instinct!

  6. Its funny as we look for value but then restrict ourselves to odds I look to see if the fall within a 2point boundary so in this case 16s but not less than 5/2 at the lower end

    my reasons for this are I only bet at Coral Shop between 10 and midday so if a horse should move into the advise price im covered

    1. That sounds like you had that winner then? Good stuff – yes agree – the prices with the micro systems are only ever a guide – because they are trainer based it is the case that some rarely win with horses priced over x – suggesting at least some money may have to be down, or their suitability to race conditions/chance in the race has to be obvious to a point. Sounds like you have a good approach to me – having said that I think that is the first winner in a while (Quinn did have one I think the other month) to have a winner over the ‘odds caps’ – Oliver’s are tentative, you can’t really make a judgement with those over 12/1 given only 14 runners – so will adjust that advice now.

  7. beaten a short head is not a bad result for a 20/1 shot before withdrawals,pity was a win only bet,but ill get one at 20/1 sometime,still big society put a smile on my face

    1. Yes that was frustrating as I backed him as well – was hoping the second would run out of gas or wouldnt find for pressure! still, an exciting run for our money. Yep well done with Big Society – i left race in the end as couldnt not decide – for a moment I thought BS had detached himself but can see why you backed him.

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