2.35 Hexham – Toarmandowithlove – 20/1 (general) – ‘Team Corbett’ are 4/12, 6 places when teaming up here in handicap hurdles. This horse hasn’t shown much to date but that may have been by design and he makes his handicap debut here. The trainer is 1/6, 2 places +35 SP with handicap debutants in the last 5 years. This horse is top rated in the race, which given his form, says a lot about the rest. Every one of the opposition has a question or two to answer whether it is form,stamina, liking for the ground etc. It is a poor quality race and I am happy to chance this 20/1 shot. The ground is a real unknown for most of these and the selection may or may not handle it. He went close in a soft ground bumper here and the sire offers some hope.
3.00 Chepstow – Petite Fantasie – 20/1 (general) – Maybe it is a fantasy for this one to go in but the trainer is 4/16, 8 places with handicap hurdlers here. The profit (+2SP) suggests most are fancied but I found it hard to say that this horse cant win – and the trainer has had numerous big priced hurdle winners, so he isnt a ‘money trainer’. In an awful race a repeat of his run 3 starts ago at Fontwell would see him go close here. I don’t know what happened next time out but it is possible he needed the run over an inadequate trip last time at Exeter. His speed figure on the cards I use (Geegeez) is also the second best in the race, and miles ahead of the rest. That is a positive. Precious Ground is in form and if stepping forward on his last run would go close. Tim Vaughan is in awful form at the moment which would make me nervous about his at the price, and the rest havent done much yet. Most have questions over the ground to answer and it feels like a race where there could be an upset. He could be tailed off but if you cant take the odd risk with 20/1 shots, you never will.
That is it for tomorrow. I did have a good look at the 2.30 Chepstow but found myself going round in circles. I think you could make a case for most in here but at the same time they all have something to prove. Boyfromnowhere could hack up as the market suggests. He is effectively 18lb below his last win and has probably been rejuvenated by the switch of stables. But, he is short enough now. Castarnie – his trainer has a shocking record with horses running after a break, all needing the run to date. Smart Exit ticks a lot of profile boxes but I am not sure as to the depth of his form. Crackofthunder and Brownville are both unexposed but were both disappointing on their last starts and need to step up. Big Society – if he put it all together has the ability to win this. He was well backed last time but never got into it – maybe not liking the blinkers. Not one to trust at the moment and still to win a chase. Safran De Cotte still hasnt won a handicap chase from 10 starts, but has placed form to go close here. He can hit the odd fence. Nail M’s level of form looks a bit poor to me and he will need to step up- 0/9, 0 places in all career runs with 8+ runners. Georgian King looks to exposed.
That left me having a long stare at the bottom two, Bashford Ben and Paddy The Oscar, both 20s. The former is better RH (1/13 in chases LH, 3/6 RH) and again the level of his form could be questionable, but he could outrun his odds. PTO is a ‘young’ 12yo – this only his 8th handicap chase. I deliberated for a time with him – but ultimately he is 12 and there are a lot of unexposed ones in here – I think it could be asking too much for the rest to all under-perform, albeit I think he will outrun his odds. His run LTO was maybe just a bit too poor, even if he needed it. We shall see. It looks a minefield and if you ignored the fav you would want a decent priced one on your side.
I also looked at the 4.55 Kempton – and if you like your nurseries you should note that Jarvis is 3/7, 4 places with handicap debutants at the track and likewise Moore is 4/20, 8 places. Their two are around 14s, and maybe that is worth chancing. I found myself guessing too much in what looks a very open race, with many more fancied ahead of them in the market.
5.25 Kemp – Little Salamanca (14/1 or under)
7.25 Kemp – Saab Almanal (any odds,JF does have odd biggy go in)
12.40 War – Dazinski (12/1 or under)
12.55 Hex – Seventeen Black (12/1 or under)
2.30 Chep – Nail’M (12/1 or under)
3.20 War – Smartmax (12/1 or under)
3.40 Hex – Tekthelot (12/1 or under)
There is a link below in the comments to a free report with some stats for Southwell All-Weather. I did email this out but it is below if you missed it…