The Geegeez Geegee (well done to the owners, a few of whom I believe read this blog and is one of the syndicate horses of THE blog,geegeez.co.uk) made it a profitable day with the ‘jumps handicappers’ finishing 1st and 2nd. Val Darc fell with over a circuit to go. He jumped well on the whole LTO, and for the first few fences here – before failing to take off – it was a horrid fall and thankfully he got up ok. He couldnt lead but it was far too early to know how he was going to run. Flint’s horse was sent off at 12/1, having been 25s. He travelled well into the straight and looked like he was coming to take it up. A mixture of the ground and that stiff finish looked to find out his stamina I think as he emptied quite quickly – not one to give up on just yet.
My ability to pick winners has deserted me for the last 7 days or so but in general I am finding value and the winners and more importantly the profit,will come. I have written a new ‘My Racing Week’ post which touches on last week’s results.
All in the portfolio is on +40.25 points since the start of November if backing everything, (tips/shortlist/micro systems). That includes -11 points for the Cheltenham Micro system, including all of Pipes, which I personally have been avoiding in recent days. I know the more selective amongst you (esp for the micro systems) may have bigger profits than that, but so far the ‘portfolio’ approach is doing what I hoped it would. I just need to start adding to the +9.75 points generated from my tips/shortlist to date.
12.10 Ling – Cape Canaille – 4/1 BV/PP/ BFSport – Noseda is 3/12, 6 places with his 2yo debutants at the track. He takes on newcomers from SBS (2/16, 5 places at track with 2yo debutants) and Gosden (3/32 with 2yo debutants here) and it looks to be between the three. Those with form need to take a step forward.Given Noseda tends to run likely types here, 4s looks decent enough. The early market indications are that he will be ready to go here first time up.
2.00 South – Dandy Duke – 6/1 (BV/LAD/WH) George/Brennan are 6/18, 10 places in handicaps at the track, George is 1/4, 2 places with his handicap debutants here. I don’t think there is much depth to this race. The question is over his fitness and he clearly needs to leave some disappointing runs in non-handicaps behind. He is the only ‘could be anything’ type in the race really and he could have plenty in hand. 6s feels big enough to find out, and the market well may guide us to his chance. George, like many modern trainers, can get them fit enough at home if he wants to. A few of his have gone in after breaks this season.
2.35 South – Florrie Boy – 4/1 (general) – I have another micro angle ticking along in background. Twister’s Handicap Hurdle debutants – Top 6 LTO, down 1, same or up 1 class from LTO. With those priced 11/2 or under he is 13/22, 14 places +29 since 2010. He takes on a Ben Pauling horse here who looks the main danger – although he is only 1/22 with his handicap debutants to date – but he is a trainer going places. One niggle is there could be a slow pace and if it turns into a bit of a dash turning in, he may run out of track. But, I think this looks a two horse race and as such 4s allows the chance to be taken. He will be fit and we should get a run for our money.
Signing off 19.11, 16/11/15