Henry Oliver had a winner ‘out of range’ for the Jumps Handicappers at 14/1. There was plenty of 12s about at times, as well as 16s – and was a reminder that price is only ever a guide – especially when on the boundary. He won’t go down in the official results for that system although I know a few of you had a nibble. He was 0/13 with horses priced over 12/1, (0/5 when priced 14/1, 2 places) – clearly not massive numbers on which to base a strict odds decision. His at 14s< may be worth following from now on. I think that was the first winner for a while for the micro systems ‘out of range’. Caroline Bailey’s got nabbed in a photo which was frustrating, but an exciting run nonetheless.
I am away for a few days from tomorrow in Budapest. Micro System qualifiers will continue to be posted, unless my lap top gets stolen! But, I doubt there will be anything else until Monday. Given my form a break may do me some good!
I am analysing ok but that final decision is poor at the moment – summed up by Big Society’s easy win (leaving Keel Haul on Sat) – staring at my noted pad banging my head against the table – solid placed form at a higher level,well backed on stable debut LTO when not liking the blinkers – CD form in heavy, trainer 6/11 in last 30 days – 9/1 or so. All of that written in my notes, and as indicated in write up he would go close if all clicking. The signs were there and I bottled the race. Still, i didnt lose anything but another value bet dodged.
Thankfully my ability to research a profitable micro angle or two is still intact.
I have previewed the Fixed Brush Hurdle from Haydock on Saturday, for the Daily Punt Blog – and at this stage Broxbourne was my EW fancy at 12/1 (PP,BS) 14/1 (888 sport,32 Red) – If she runs it will go down as a 1 point EW bet. The trends/stats/reasoning will be sent out by them on Friday I think.
I had a look at the 1.30 Market Raisen tomorrow. Fergal O’Brien is 4/14, 6 places with his handicap chasers here and his Rio Milan looks to have a decent chance – 6s underestimates his chance a tad. Cloudy Bob doesnt win very often but everything looks in his favour here, at 7s in places. I think it could be between the two but I don’t like backing two at that price really and I couldn’t decide which to plump for. Maybe I should just back them both.
12.50 Winc – Market Option (16/1 or under)
3.40 Market R – Airbridge (12/1 or under)
2.40 Market R – Silver Shuffle (12/1 or under)