Members Report: 21/10/15 (UPDATED)

Well a decent enough day yesterday with 2 wins from 4 bets, +6.75 points if backing them all. Caufield’s Venture responded well to the visor and was always travelling well – he is worth keeping an eye on next time out – it is just whether he responds to the headgear in the same way again. The Easterby winner just clung on from the front, the 25p R4 reducing the price to 3.75/1, but still better than an SP of 9/4. The Ger Lyons horse was backed off the boards into 3/1 from 8/1 and although he was too keen and may not have stayed – consistently taking 8/1 about 3/1 shots will pay handsomely over time. 

I think that takes the running total for the tips/shortlist/big race previews to +16.25 points for the months, with the systems adding another +19 so far. (a bit more if being cautious about Balding) = +35.25 total

***

No Tip today – the racing is quite poor and there were no chases that excited me, or any other races for that matter. There are a couple of interesting shortlist horses though…

The Shortlist 

2.00 New – Sakhees Gem 20/1 (bet365) – The trainer is 3/14, 6 places with handicap debutants in the last 2 years. This horse is exposed against quite a lot of these having run a few times in maidens. However, he ran well to be beaten 5l in a decent sales race here LTO over 6f. He looks like he wants further so the step up in trip also catches the eye. The ground is an unknown as there is rain about – but at that price I am happy to have a dart. 

4.55 New – Nice Future – 7/2 – trainer has a decent record with handicap debutants at the Newmarket tracks – 8/28, 12 places, +26 SP. This horse won a maiden on soft and has had a slight break – maybe waiting for softer ground. 7/2 is just about fair and he looks interesting. 

***

Micro Systems 

Jumps Handicappers 

3.35 Font: Laughton Park (20/1 or under) / Taradrewe (12/1 or under)

4.10 Font: Fergal Mael Duin (14/1 or under) 

Fahey 2yo (16/1 or under)

2.00 New – Inaam  (NON QUALIFIER)*

*apologies – i have already backed him but shouldn’t have. The rules as I had them saved did not take account of jockey claim, as such with the claim of horse above he is not bottom weight. However, we do not want to be backing any clear bottom weights, regardless of any jockey claims on horses above. Apols if you have backed him  – clear bottom weights (excluding jockey claims) are 0/20. I wonder what will happen now! 

NTD (16/1 or under)

5.05 Worc – Guiting Power 

October Trainers 

2.00 New – Motdaw (16/1 or under)

4.55 New – Breslin (16/1 or under)

AW Switcher 

7.55 Kempt – Replenish 

***

That is all for today. There will be a post up at some point about Cheltenham – some interesting trainer angles for the upcoming meeting – and I will look at some trends etc as well. 

Signing off, 08.40. Good Luck

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

    1. No problem Steve, thought it would help and I have access to them as soon as uploaded in my HRB account, usually between 3-6pm.

  1. Another very good day yesterday Josh – excellent stuff. Think I might have a little extra on Nice Future today as the stats looks very good – got 4/1 last night but thats probably gone now.

    Many Thanks for your valued advice

    1. Cheers Bob – yes I finished this post before checking you know where – nice to see plenty more stats supporting the horse. We should get a run for our money. End of the day he is a lightly races horse up against many more lightly raced horses, so we shall see.

  2. Gay thinks she’s running in a maiden 200N! Bred to stay and like easy going so worth a punt as you say. Grizzly Bear also has a chance.

    1. Haha – yes it does look an open race – also two in there for the micro angles – could well be an expensive race for me!!

  3. Hi Josh and very well done for recent excellent winning spell. Just wanted to check whether or not Inaam 2.00 New is definitely a qualifier under the Fahey 2yo system, and perhaps i am reading it wrongly, but 2nd line under the qualifying rules states NOT Clear Bottom in the weights and it appears to be exactly that. If you can kindly just confirm please. Thanks again for all the hard work that you put in to the Blog. Much appreciated

    1. Hi Allan – quite right – after much staring at my HRB screen have spotted it now – there is an option to include ‘Pos in Weights (excluding jockey claims) – I had it saved as just position in weights – as such it took account of the claim on the horse above.

      HE IS A NON QUALIFIER

      The results are better for us (worse for fahey) when considering ALL clear bottom weights, regardless of any claims – 0/20.

      So, good spot – and sorry for confusion. I have already backed him mind.

  4. Ok thanks for that Josh. Think i’m gonna back it anyhow just in case! I’d be kicking myself if i didn’t back it and it won, so here goes….

  5. I cant remember who on the blog said about Lyons & Keene but thanks!!! Nice 25/1 with Dinozzo 🙂 aside from that keep up the good work Josh!

    1. Yes, quite! I failed to follow up on that pointer and am dreading do so now as I think they may have had a very profitable few weeks, although whether it is a pattern I will see. Yes that winner cropped up on the Geegeez 2yo report – Ger Lyons has a decent record with first time out 2yos in last two years – bugger! Well done you though, not a bad price!!

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