Some Pointers for the upcoming Cheltenham Showcase Meeting…
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TRAINERS
(all stats from 2010- as usual)
Clearly we are dealing with small numbers here but they are useful pointers. At first glance it doesn’t look like a meeting where you should go chasing big priced winners, especially from the yards below. Price is of course always a guide but some of the stats below are very eye catching..
Firstly all trainers with 2 or more winners to their name at this meeting in the last 5 years…
Paul Nicholls
- 0/15, 2 places priced 13/2 or bigger
- 11/2 or under: 35 bets / 13 wins / 24 places / +7 SP
- 11/2 or under /Non Handicaps: 25 bets / 12 wins / 21 places / 48% SR / +11.54 SP / AE 1.35
- 11/2 or under / Handicaps: 9 bets / 1 win / 3 places
- 9/19, 16 places had NO run this season
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Nigel Twiston-Davies
- 0/13, 3 places 11/1 or over
- 10/1 or under: 33 bets / 9 wins / 15 places / 27% SR / +21.5 SP / AE 1.44
- 5/13, 6 places in Hurdles; +19.25
- 4/19, 8 places in Chases; +3.25
- Non Handicaps: 3/17, 7 places; -5.75 SP, AE 0.74
- Handicaps: 6/16, 8 places; +27.25 SP
- Handicap Hurdle: 3/6, 3 places, +17.25
- Handicap Chase: 3/10, 5 places, +10 SP
- Non Handicap Hurdle: 2/7, 3 places , +2
- Non Handicap Chase: 1/9, 3 places, -6.75
Exclude non handicap chases (although those stats still ok), 10/1 or under: 23 bets / 8 wins / 11 places / +29.25 SP
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Gordon Elliot
- 0/14, 4 places, 9/1 or over
- 17/2 or shorter: 15 bets / 7 wins / 9 places / +31.26 SP
- 1/4, 3 places in last 2 seasons.
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Jonjo O’Neill
- 0/16, 1 place, 8/1 or over
- 7/1 or under: 10 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / +13.35 SP
- 4/7, 5 places in last two seasons, +16.25 SP
- 3/5, 4 places in Chases
- 1/4, 2 places in Hurdles.
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Phillip Hobbs
- 0/18, 4 places, 10/1 +
- 9/1 or under: 4/20, 10 places, +7.25 SP
- Non Handicap: 0/6, 2 places
- Handicaps: 4/14, 8 places, +13.25
- Handicap Hurdle: 0/6, 2 places
- Handicap Chase (9/1 <): 4/8, 6 places +19.25 SP (1 win every year since 2011)
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Neil Mulholland
- 3/5, 3 places in his short career to date. Looks like a meeting he may have decided to target.
- 3/4, 3 places in Chases.
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David Pipe
- 0/14, 2 places, 8/1 or bigger
- 7/1 or shorter: 11 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / +6.75 SP
- Non Handicap: 3/5, 4 places, +12.75 SP
- Handicaps: 0/6, 2 places
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Nicky Henderson
- 0/7, 0 places 11/1 or bigger
- 10/1 or shorter: 3/14, 8 places: +13 SP (across all race types)
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Rebecca Curtis
- 2/18 in general. No real way in but…
- 1/5, 3 places in NHF races
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Colin Tizzard
- 0/18, 1 place above 5/1
- 5/1 or shorter: 2/3, 3 places – both wins in chases. Clearly his fancied runners are worth a second glance.
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Some trainers that ‘could do better’ …
- Kim Bailey: 0/11, 2 places
- Gary Moore: 0/9, 1 place
- Charlie Longsdon: 0/11, 2 places
- Emma Lavelle: 0/15, 2 places
- Venetia Williams: 0/8, 0 places
- Fergal O’Brien: 0/19, 2 places
- Tim Vaughan: 0/20, 2 places (yet to have any winner at Cheltenham, that must change at some point!)
- D McCain: 0/9, 2 places
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Trends/Stats
Friday: 3.20 – 3m Handicap Hurdle (94 runners to date, only 6 years)
- 4/6 Won last time out.
- 6/6 Top 3 LTO
- 6/45, 15 places Top 3 LTO
- 0/49, 6 places 4th or worse LTO
- 5/6 carried less than 11st
- 5/62, 15 places less than 11st
- 1/32, 6 places 11st +
- 4/38, 7 places ran 121-365 days ago
- 0/12, 0 places 1-2 career wins only
Trainers
- Nigel Twiston-Davies: 6 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / +14 SP
- Hughes / Greatrex / Hobbs / H Evans – 1 win each
- Pipe: 0/12 , 2 places
- Jonjo: 0/5, 0 places
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Saturday: 3.20 25f Handicap Chase
(8 runnings, 96 runners – 3 won by same horse so some caution)
- 0/41, 3 places: 14/1 or bigger
- 0/13, 3 places Aged 4-6
- 0/17, 6 places carried 11-8 or more
- 8/8 Top 5 in market (8/42, 17 places)
- 7/8 ran 121-365 days ago
- 0/18, 2 places had 0-1 chase wins to name: 4/19, 7 places had 3 chase wins to name
- 0/14, 1 place had 4+ NH handicap wins to name
- 7/8 Rated OR 134-140 (7/28, 9 places)
- Track LTO:-
- 3/8, 5 places ran at Sandown LTO
- 2/14, 6 places Cheltenham
- 0/9, 2 places Aintree
- 0/12, 2 places Market Raisen
Trainers
- Phillip Hobbs: 5/11, 6 places, +25.25 SP (3x with Balthazar King)
- Mulholland/Jonjo/NTD – 1 win each
- Pipe: 0/6, 2 places
- Nicholls: 0/6, 0 places
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