Well a brilliant start to yesterday with a 1-2 in the 2.10 – it would have been nice if the Quinn runner could have got up having drifted to 22/1,(head) but settling for a 12/1 winner for Channon micro angle is never a bad thing. No idea how the Bridgewater horse would have done, Cannon was dictating when he ran out with a circuit to go. The systems have been doing well this month with 9 winners to date, odds of 14/1, 12/1, 7/4, 6/1, 4/1, 13/2, 8/1, 12/1, 1/5.
Andrew Balding is 0/12, 0 places for the month and continues to be cold. Including his runners the portfolio of systems are on +20 points for the month to date I believe. 52 bets / 8 wins.
TIP ….WON 5/1
Caulfields Venture – 1 point win 5/1 (bet365/BV) 9/2 other places
This looks an interesting handicap chase and arguably every horse has a bit to prove in here. The selection comes from the red hot Lavelle yard. She is 5/21, 9 places in handicap chases here – this horse responsible for couple of those – and she is 5/13, 7 places when teaming up with Coleman in handicaps at the track. This horse is 2/2 over CD, is the only one proven on a firm surface over fences, and is fine after a break. Fitness should not be a problem. He has a few letters in his form line and gets a visor for the first time here. If it works then he will go very close here, and given all of the above, 5s is fair to find out. Bar this time of year Lavelle’s have run in and out in the past – possibly due to a bug in the yard last year – but her string appear to be fit and healthy at the moment and hopefully the success of his stable mates rubs off on him.
Adrenalin Flight looks the main danger to me – but he is 8lb above his last win, where the selection was back in 3rd that day. He is carrying 12lb more on his back – which could be more important than the rise – he is 0/4, 2 places in chases with 11-8+ on his back. But, he normally jumps well, and he stays and may not be too far away. Trainer 0/15 in last 30 days.
I couldn’t back the rest. Dursey Sound is inconsistent and is 0/6, 1 place RH over fences – that is a niggle. He is also 0/6, 0 places on undulating and very undulating tracks – maybe he prefers a flat track. A repeat of his last run would see him thereabouts but at 3/1 a couple of niggles. Border Breaker would not have won at Perth if Enchanted Garden had not fallen (he came out and won next time out) He has his stamina to prove – Pipe only has a 7% SR with his chasers here also. Enough doubts, albeit he is unexposed. Danandy looks like a summer jumper (lower level of form than against ‘winter horses’) and that break, on the back of a win, is more of a concern and I wonder if there has been an issue. He is up 9lb and that last race hasnt worked out too well. He is 0/5, 1 place 3m+ too, so has that to prove. Fruity O Rooney is getting on and usually needs his reappearance. Berties Desire is unexposed but his form has not been great, albeit he may have needed his last run. The biggest questions is stamina – guessing a bit – and his breeding doesnt scream stayer. His recent form, even back end of last season, just is a bit too erratic for me albeit an improved show would not be a shock.
So, this is about whether CV puts his best foot forward. If the visor works I think he will go very close.
4.10 Gowran – Automated 8/1 ..UP 3/1 SP.. (general) Ger Lyons is 5/12, 6 places with stable newcomers from other yards in the last two years. He clearly has a knack for improving horses and that angle is worth keeping onside. This horse is a maiden but is at least doing something different – taking a step up in trip. The break may have done him some good and the trainer is in form (6/21 last 14 days) – At the odds I am happy to take a chance and this angle will pay over time.
9.10 Wolvs – Atreus 5/1 – WON 3.75/1 (25p R4) 9/4 SP Another long standing maiden who goes for team Easterby/Gibbons. Last time I put up one of theirs on here a few weeks ago it won at 33/1>12/1. Their long term stats here are 29/131, 62 places. This horse is doing two things differently – stepping up in trip which looks needed, and gets cheekpieces for the first time. He has been consistent enough and clearly has some ability, albeit moderate. This is a very weak race and if he cant compete here I don’t know where they go next. The quick return is interesting and I hope we will see an improved showing. The fact a horse with his profile is 5/1 says much about the quality of the opposition.
2.20 Wind – Willsy – UP
A quick work on Emma Lavelle who had a novice chase winner today. Ignoring age stats – her novice/maiden chasers (inc in handicap novice chases like yesterday) since 2010 are now: 16/48, 27 places, +7 to SP / AE 1.05. The record this year is now 3/5, 3 placecs +7. I will still stick with those aged 3-5 for now, as long term those aged 6+ are 11/42, 22 places / 26% wsr / +1 SP , AE 0.89. But, her string are clearly in form which is a good sign for the next few weeks. Clearly all her runners are worth a second glance, and as above if you like an older horse of hers I wouldn’t be put off automatically – although they are harder to find.
Good Luck. Signing off 08.47 – 20/10/15