Members Report 17/10/15 (UPDATED)

Well a decent day for the blog and any followers patience has hopefully been rewarded. With micro systems there were 7 bets with a formline of 1,UP,1,1,2,F, UP  – winners at 20/1, 8/1 and 4/1. Excluding micro systems this month (winners at 14/1, 6/1, 4/1 and 8/1 so far) the daily ‘members reports’ are +19.5 points up betting advised stakes on the ‘Tips’ and backing all ‘shortlisted’ horses to 1 point win bets. 

But, it is best to look forwards in this game…

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BIG RACE PREVIEW

3.45 – Ascot 

Buckstay – 1 point win 8/1

Balty Boys – 1/2 point EW + 1/2 point win 16/1 (5 places Bet365)

Professor – 1/2 point EW + 1/2 point win 28/1 (5 places Bet365) (could do win bet at BFSP)

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I keep saying it and I keep ignoring my own advice – but I really need to make sure that I profit from these big ones that go in and I should have advised, and bet, at least 1 point win on yesterday’s 20/1 winner. So, from now on, every big price horse will have at least 1 point on the win side. 

There are no trends to go on here but have been through each runner as usual using the profiler tool in HRB and using the Geegeez Racecards. 

Buckstay – well he won for the blog LTO (although not ‘advised’ as such) and deserves to be followed again here – 8/1 is just about fair. This trip isnt a problem, he is in form and is progressive. He won’t be too far away, provided he is not held up too much as on paper this race is lacking searing pace. 

Balty Boys – he loves this track and rarely runs a bad race here. He is tough, stays, goes on most ground and should not be far away. I am hoping SDS races him close to the pace as he could be hard to catch if getting the fractions right. He is normally ridden a few furlongs out but will stay and he tries. I would like to think he will be in the top 5. I dont know what to make of his run in a conditions race LTO – maybe they used it to keep him ticking over for this race as following Haydock this must have been the target. 

Professor – well more speculative but he has some really good form if you look back a couple of years and is well handicapped. He has run two eye catching races at Ayr and here LTO- there is some 8-10f stamina influences in his breeding and this will be his first try over this far – I am taking a punt that now aged 5 this could be right up his street. He was staying on LTO and it is worth a go. He is fresher than most and could now be coming to the boil. If he stays, 28/1 is far too big given his back class and the fact he is showings signs that ability remains. He is one worth following as he should be winning for these connections at some point. The trainer is 0/30 here but those stats can be misleading for small yards at a premier track like this – I cant think he has had many horses of the quality to compete in most races that are run here – and anyway, the price makes up for that. 

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PACE – on paper there are no out and out front runners in here so it will be interesting who takes it up. I dont think you will want to be too far back. With these three I think we have all pace and draw angles covered so hopefully it is right for one of them. 

Nothing else really stands out in the opposition. Sacrificial has a break to overcome but is consistent albeit that run LTO was a bit mediocre. Chill The Kite and Bronze Angel are tough and on a going day would be thereabouts but their marks look tough. Musaddas is unexposed but the last two runs have been a bit below par for me. The rest have a mixture of form/well being questions, handicap mark and suitability for race conditions. Clearly these races are open and a case could be made for mostif you wanted to. Most have all run decent races at some point this season, a repeat of which would see them go close – but I have reasons why I am against the rest

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I have no overly strong views on the Championship races and will just be enjoying them, with maybe the odd £2.5/£5 thrown about at the likes of The Tin Man maybe. 

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The Shortlist 

4.00 Catt – Deep Resolve 10/1 – Swinburn and Curtis are 5/16, 9 places when teaming up here in handicaps and this horse should not be 10/1. The fav could be hard to beat but this price is big. He is young, unexposed, stays and will relish the ground. Like him most of these are unproven in the class and are stepping up so it isnt the strongest C4 race. In a race lacking loads of pace he should track it and be in the right position – arguably given too much to do last time. I think he should be thereabouts and as such, with those stats and the price, he is worth an interest. 

4.55 Ffos Las – Gus Macrae – goes for Curtis here and she is 10/26, 15 places with chasers at the track. Now he is 11 and has lost his way a bit but there was some promise on his return last time. He is so well handicapped now that if he found any of his old sparkle he could win this doing handstands. Clearly not as good as he once was there are reasons to think 7s is a tad too big. There is a lot of pace on paper in this and they could all cut each others throats and set it up for a close. The fav was withdrawn yesterday and maybe Bowen thought this was an easier race – but he is short enough. 

9.15 Wolvs – Trainer jockey are 4/14, 7 places here and team up again with The Firm. Kirby was able to dictate last time out which may be challenging to do this time but he is the only horse in any kind of form and 7/2 is fair enough to my eye. 

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Micro Systems

Emma Lavelle (14/1 or under)

2.40 MR – Crimson Ark WON 13/2 

NTD (16/1 or under)

4.40 Strat – Arctic Gold WON 12/1>11/1/ Double Court DNQ

October Trainers 

3.45 Ascot – Halation (14/1 or under) UP / Merry Me (16/1 or under) UP

3.55 MR – Desert Joe (9/1 or under) UP

4.25 MR – Presenting Lisa (9/1 or under) WON 7/4

Jumps Handicappers 

4.20 Ffos Las – The Geegeez Geegee (12/1 or under) UP

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Back tomorrow. Enjoy the rest of your evening.