Well a non runner and another poor show from a shortlisted horse. The Henry Oliver horse halved in price but ran as if a) wasnt very good b) needed the run c) wants further d) all of the above. But, I suspect the trainer will get a tune out of him at some points.
I did have a look back through the shortlist for September and there were the following stats: 88 bets / 15 wins / 17% WSR / +33 points to 1 point level stakes. I am trying to make the shortlist more focussed than they have been and they will always have a stats/profile ‘way in’. The average winning odds last month were 7/1. As ever with the shortlist you do with the info what you wish – including having a look at the horse in more depth. I have started to record results more thoroughly, to be published monthly. If they are put up here it means I have backed them and considered the horse to some extent.
Mukaynis – 20/1 (general)- 1/2 point EW 4 places WON 20/1>16/1
When flicking through the days cards this race looked interesting and this horse caught the eye at the prices. Ground is fine, and his placed form in conditions is: 3/3 in Class; 1/2 course; 5/7 distance; 2/3 16+ runners. When looking at the horse he has been consistent without getting his head infront too often. This is only his 11th flat start and he is 1/10, 6 places in the others. Shane Gray gets back on and they are 3/8, 5 places together. He ran well enough last time out at Nottingham and gets blinkers for the first time here. They could make the difference. He may not like them of course but all in, given his general consistency, 20s felt big to me. There is enough pace drawn around him and track position should be fine.
There are no stand out horses in here to my eye. He was behind a few of these at Ayr and the likes of Tiger Jim have a strong chance if repeating that run, albeit he has to prove his liking for a softer surface. It is an open race where you could make a case for a few- Flyman is holding his form, beardwood is unexposed. But, all in, at the prices I couldn’t resist an EW dabble.
-4.00 Fakenham – Wiesentraum 9/2 – UP Wadham is 6/15, 9 places with chasers at the track, 4/8 with this rider- this horse loves the track and has won this race before. Indeed he took a similar route via Market Raisen in 2013 before winning a race here in October. He should be fit, and this drop in class will help. He was close to being a tip but I took the brave (foolish mans?) route of going with the 20/1 shot. There is also the issue of Knock House – he will go well as the market suggests- but 9/2 is fair for this horse and he should give the fav most to do. If he runs like he normally does he wont be far away.
4.55 Haydock – Dark Crescent 8/1- WON Charles Hills is 4/10 with his handicap debutants here and steps this one up in trip. You want handicap debutants to be ‘doing something different’ which he is here with the step up. The ground is a bit of an unknown but he looks interest.
9.05 Dundalk – Suffice to Say 12/1 – as does this horse who also makes his handicap debut for a trainer who is 5/22, 6 places with such runners at the track. This one steps up in trip and is also well drawn. Another interesting one at the odds and one of those micro angles that should pay over time.
Tomorrow’s system selections.
FAHEY 2yo (16/1 or under)
1.30 Hayd – Curtain Call WON 4/1
3.35 Winc – Laser Blazer 2nd 8/1
Emma Lavelle (14/1 or under)
4.10 Winc – Well Rewarded – Fell
Signing off – 09.50