I am writing this at 9.00 and as yet have not looked at any of today’s racing, and as such don’t not what my search will throw up. I dont think there will be a ‘big race’ preview although I will highlight any relevant trends, starting with the big one at Newmarket. There are a couple of decent chases at Chepstow which I should just watch with a note pad – as well as plenty of other non handicaps which are worth watching for the future. My trip to Newmarket yesterday was good fun and my ‘parade ring eye’ is improving as I managed to find winners at 5/1, 16/1 and 14/1. It found it quite ‘easy’ with these young horses to spot which ones looked calm, fit and ready to go. Many required two handlers and were sweating up – maybe i was just lucky, but I won’t complain. I was playing with 1/2 and 1/4 points for fun really but you certainly see a lot more when you are there, rather than sat infront of the tv.
3.50 Newmarket: Trends/Stats
-16/18 Top 7 LTO (13/18 Top 4)
-Ran 1-15 days ago: 1/77, 7 places (10/18 ran 16-30 days ago)
-17/18 0-7 season runs (8+ 1/75, 5 places)
-16/18 had WON over 16f or further before (2/143, 14 places had not)
-17/18 had won 2-6 handicaps (1/178 had 0-1 win)
-15/18 drawn 1-19. 7/18 drawn 1-5
Those were the stats that caught my eye. 14/18 also Top 9 in market. 16/18 0-3 runs in last 90 days (takes you back to around 10th July or so)
Ignoring the draw, in my quick run through, I think that leaves: First Mohican, Noble Silk, Mosato (Sir Mark 0/19, 1 place in race to date), Montefeltro, Steve Rogers, Low Key, Grumeti, Bayan.
Having had a quick glance Noble Silk is well drawn and has raced in some decent handicaps this season. I don’t think there is any soft in the going and I have had an EW bet at 25/1, 5 places. If Grumeti or Steve Rogers were better drawn they would have been tempting but they could be big on the exchange and I may have a nibble. In truth it is an ‘entertaining’ bet as I wouldn’t say they were confident bets. I would like to think Noble Silk will give me a run for my money at least. Not an ‘official bet’ as I haven’t looked at every runner in depth and it is more than possible that something without a stats/trends profile as above goes in.
There is a decent sprint at York but I could not find any real trends/stats of interest as a way in. Poyle Vinnie caught the eye at 12s and George Bowen could make 13/2 look big in context of this race. But, I haven’t looked at that race at all in any depth.
There will be no shortlist…there are some decent stats as ways in for the jumps cards (Pipe/Skelton in 3.55 Chep for example, but they are big fields I don’t have the time to properly analyse and it is all a bit too much guess work with fitness – best keep a watching brief for the future I think)
A King (9/1 or under)
3.55 Chep – Karezak
4.30 Chep – Lunique / The Tourad Man
5.05 Chep – Sego Success
NTD (16/1 or under, a guide, big one occasionally goes in)
2.45 Chep – Margarets Rose
6.05 Chelm – Nutbourne Lad
That is all for today. Good luck, signing off at 11am.