Members Report: 10/10/15

I am writing this at 9.00 and as yet have not looked at any of today’s racing, and as such don’t not what my search will throw up. I dont think there will be a ‘big race’ preview although I will highlight any relevant trends, starting with the big one at Newmarket. There are a couple of decent chases at Chepstow which I should just watch with a note pad – as well as plenty of other non handicaps which are worth watching for the future. My trip to Newmarket yesterday was good fun and my ‘parade ring eye’ is improving as I managed to find winners at 5/1, 16/1 and 14/1. It found it quite ‘easy’ with these young horses to spot which ones looked calm, fit and ready to go. Many required two handlers and were sweating up – maybe i was just lucky, but I won’t complain. I was playing with 1/2 and 1/4 points for fun really but you certainly see a lot more when you are there, rather than sat infront of the tv. 

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3.50 Newmarket: Trends/Stats 

-16/18 Top 7 LTO (13/18 Top 4)

-Ran 1-15 days ago: 1/77, 7 places (10/18 ran 16-30 days ago)

-17/18 0-7 season runs (8+ 1/75, 5 places)

-16/18 had WON over 16f or further before (2/143, 14 places had not)

-17/18 had won 2-6 handicaps (1/178 had 0-1 win)

-15/18 drawn 1-19. 7/18 drawn 1-5

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Those were the stats that caught my eye. 14/18 also Top 9 in market. 16/18 0-3 runs in last 90 days (takes you back to around 10th July or so)

Ignoring the draw, in my quick run through, I think that leaves: First Mohican, Noble Silk, Mosato (Sir Mark 0/19, 1 place in race to date), Montefeltro, Steve Rogers, Low Key, Grumeti, Bayan. 

Having had a quick glance Noble Silk is well drawn and has raced in some decent handicaps this season. I don’t think there is any soft in the going and I have had an EW bet at 25/1, 5 places. If Grumeti or Steve Rogers were better drawn they would have been tempting but they could be big on the exchange and I may have a nibble. In truth it is an ‘entertaining’ bet as I wouldn’t say they were confident bets. I would like to think Noble Silk will give me a run for my money at least. Not an ‘official bet’ as I haven’t looked at every runner in depth and it is more than possible that something without a stats/trends profile as above goes in. 

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There is a decent sprint at York but I could not find any real trends/stats of interest as a way in. Poyle Vinnie caught the eye at 12s and George Bowen could make 13/2 look big in context of this race. But, I haven’t looked at that race at all in any depth. 

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The Shortlist…

There will be no shortlist…there are some decent stats as ways in for the jumps cards (Pipe/Skelton in 3.55 Chep for example, but they are big fields I don’t have the time to properly analyse and it is all a bit too much guess work with fitness – best keep a watching brief for the future I think)

 

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Micro Systems 

A King (9/1 or under)

3.55 Chep – Karezak

4.30 Chep – Lunique / The Tourad Man

5.05 Chep – Sego Success 

NTD (16/1 or under, a guide, big one occasionally goes in)

2.45 Chep – Margarets Rose 

AW Switcher

6.05 Chelm – Nutbourne Lad 

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That is all for today. Good luck, signing off at 11am. 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Don’t understand this site …seems your picking winners all over the place ..easy this game can even find them in the paddock at all prices …the thing is I backed your tips in august and September and never won a penny in fact lost quite a few …short lists micro systems etc ..seems your backing all these winners and putting up losers as your main bets…in fact it keeps changing now no bets until November and only selective ..

    1. Hi Christine. Firstly ‘tipping is a long term thing and to advised bets the blog is up..I have struggled when ‘tipping in recent weeks hence I have eased off and tried to work out how to proceed. Given the way I bet you can look at any snap shot and you could be down etc. The info is provided for you to use as you please. Hopefully some had a nibble on Grumeti as discussed above. Bets to advised stakes, when I say ‘1 point win’ or something should be profitable long term so you can back them as such. They are,albeit my decision making in recent weeks has been poor at best. Micro systems are micro systems,you trust the research,use as you please and judge them long term if backing systematically.

      Happy to take your suggestion for what/how you would like info presented. Maybe I am not getting it right.

      As for those winners at Newmarket they would never be on blog as I decided at track parade ring side,having some fun. I won’t include such musings in future if that annoys readers.

      Every horse put up on blog to advised stakes,the shortlist and micro systems is backed with my own money so I have no disire to put up loads of losers long term.

  2. Hi josh .In response to what your followers want , here are my views .I would like your strongest bet of the day full stop .I personally don’t want to be backing upwards of 8 horses per day incorporated in trainer profiles/micro systems etc .One or possibly two per day would suit me fine .Thanks

    1. Cheers Michael. Yep I take that point,have tried to narrow shortlist down to a few but will put more thought into it. Micro systems are there for people to use as please,Inc ignoring them. But take you point about say having 1-3 horses per day on average that you should have confidence in.

  3. Hi Josh,

    If anyone follow 1 or 2 micro systems will be profitable at long term.
    September trainers selection was very good ,I hope next year will be the same.

    All the best,

    Lacos.

  4. Hi Josh
    Think the criticism on the site is a bit harsh. How often do we all identify a shortlist and when push comes to shove we pick the wrong which gets beaten and all other possible selections for the nap romp home.
    Keep up the great work on the site all the research is greatly appreciated.

  5. Hello josh im with jimbo 58 please keep the research and shortlists micro systems etc love reading them for me they are an insight into the days racing its up to the indivdual how they use them .

  6. Hi Josh – I’m amazed how people can be SO CRITICAL of free site offerings. All the experts that I trust including MB & CW tell you that there are good times and bad times, what you look for is a winning approach over a set period of time, usually 6/12 months. You need to also beat the S.P. – do this and you will come out a winner. If you don’t have an adequert bank to start your adventure with, forget it, as that’s when panic betting sets in and your sunk !

    Only my thoughts – I think you do very well and I have had a number of long price winnings using your seletions.

    All the Best

  7. Hi Josh
    I for one really look forward to reading your shortlist comments.
    I use them as a way in to the particular race but make the decision on whether to bet them myself.
    Micro systems are not for everyone just as trends are not for everyone.
    Personally I use systems and trends but as I said they are not for everyone.
    Thank you for all the time and effort you put in FREE OF CHARGE !!!

  8. Hi Josh..keep the info flowing regardless of criticisms as this does provide insight into any targeted race…take the 3.50 at Newmarket…you mentioned quite a few horses which is hardly surprising given the nature of the race…a tip in itself that there was a lot of guess work involved…. no matter how informed or what the trends were it was a difficult race and I personally did not have a bet as it was far too difficult…what your site provides is a valuable sounding board as well as legitimate information which I would miss if you decided just to “put up” 2 or three selections… I find the micro systems you mention informative and all the info is great for giving ideas…as in all things the final choice is up to each individual and you should not be held responsible for the choices, judgement calls other people make based on the information you provide…to expect you to post “winners” is a bit unfair as they are your choices based on the information you have gleaned, whether we agree with you and back them is entirely down to each person…keep on providing members reports..all the best

  9. Hi Josh, I totally agree with Bob David above, i think your site is one of the best free sites for racing i have come across, so well done you !!! And many thanks for all the hard work you put in.Wishing you good luck in all you do.

  10. Interesting that the comments on here are all generated by a sequence of loosing bets where are they when we have a 14/1 winner,its simple really take from the site which parts you enjoy and ignore the bits that don’t apply appeal to you

    This is one mans view on the races Free of charge me I love it all so please remember no-one make e back any horses on here apart from me

    Thanks Josh keep up the good work

    Brian

  11. Hi Josh…..For the benefit of the moaners. October trainers today.2 for Balding, Pickapocket 3.05 Good and Farletti 5.15Good….both Lost. Then 1 for Simcock, Carnachy 4.45Good Won with BFSP of 7.2. That will do for me any day of the week. Thanks Josh for all your efforts.

  12. Keep the micro angles list coming josh,, no one should expect 100per cent winners from the list but a nice few winners to hopefully bring a profit from them each mth,,, I like these as it shows which trainers 5yr stats stand up for that month bar an odd losing yr from the 5….

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