Well that was an ok yet frustrating day. Hugo Palmer’s handicap debutants both ran well, a 16/1 3rd and a nose 2nd. The Haggas horse also finished second by a nose and both of those would have made for a much better day for me personally. But, that is racing. On the flip side of that Dean Ivory had an 11/1 winner >7/1 and 14/1 3rd in same race at Newmarket to keep the September trainers ticking along – that win was by a nose – you win some you lose some. Gosden had a decent winner making the morning 6/4 look value, returned 4/6. New Bidder ran well to finish 3rd, looking like the winner for quite some way before being swallowed up late. But, no damage for my EW bet to nothing. The rest quite frankly were underwhelming!
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I had a good look at the 2.55 Worcester, with eyes initially drawn to Village Vic, thinking I may be able to find a ‘tip. But, from a profile and/or form perspective you cannot rule out too many – actually, when using some stats as well, you can’t really discount any of them. As such, it was too competitive and best left. VV may well bounce out and if fit lead all the way, but there are plenty of in form and race fit rivals in behind. You could make some sort of case for Desden,Nearest The Pin (won race last year), Strongly Suggested, Miss Tenacious, Purple N Gold (unexposed,poor LTO), Noche De Reyes (unexposed, come on from last run?) – Ellison is 4/6, 6 places in Worcester Handicaps – but his one looks up against it on paper. It looks a hot little race, should be fun to watch, but I couldnt tip with confidence, albeit with a gun to my head, given VV’s winter form, I would probably just go with him – could get easy lead too.
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Cambridgeshire Meeting
1.55 – Solar Magic / Muffri’ha
2.30 – Asyad (8/1 or under)/ Journey
3.05 -Double Motivated (4/1 or under) / Thetis (8/1 or under)
4.15 – Nodachi (16/1 or under, looks unfancied, trainers maiden winners at meeting had had a run)
Crazy Horse (12/1 or under)
Fidaawy (8/1 or under) Also runs Shabbah – unfancied, 8/1 or under again.
Of note – Meade is 2/4, 3 places with debutants at Newmarket, runs C Note – you would think given other trainers/owners represented he may be up against it, but you never know.
4.50 – Cannock Chase (8/1 or under)
5.15 – Vairan runs American Artist – his two 3yo’cappers were poor yesterday.
Rocket Punch (16/1 or under)
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I have yet to look through these races but hopefully those trainer pointers help in some way.
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Shortlist..
1.50 Worcester – Scott has a decent record at track and is 8/20, 10 places with Schofield here. They run Ladfromhighworth – now, he ran flat LTO according to trainer but if bounces back to previous form would run another solid race here. There must be real stamina doubts/questions over Jonjo’s runner – but a lack of searing pace may help, and the jockey for Valadom is 0/35 at track to date, but he is entitled to go close based on last run. Curtis is 2/4, 3 places with new recruits to stable (from other yards) at the track, so will be interesting to see how Gus Macrae goes – fitness a big question as is inexperience of jockey. But he is being backed. At 8/1 a small EW bet on Lad for me.
7.15 Wolvs – Cox/Tate are 6/18, 8 places when teaming up in handicaps here, that makes Winterspice of some interest. He looks to need a strong gallop but if you put a line through his Bath run (maybe didn’t like track), based on his Kempton run he is entitled to go ok, and is a double figure price.
Back to Worcester and there are a few clues for NHF runners if you like playing in those races – too many to actually decide which ones to bet on maybe – but the trainer stats are strong enough –
3.30 – Longsdon is 6/17, 12 places with NHF horses at track, making his of interest in here. George BAKER has a rare NHF runner too, given form of yard, he catches the eye…
4.05 – Western Miller looks well fancied for Longsdon here but if wanting to take him on – Bowen is 7/14, 9 places with NHF runners at track, so his catches the eye. And Pipe is 5/13, 8 places with unraced NHF newcomers to track- his Still Together must be of interest although an odd jockey booking?
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There are NO September Qualifiers today, but as I say, that Baker NHF runner may be worth a second look.
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Good Luck with your bets.
4 Responses
I’m hoping Longsdon has a good time at worcester as i backed Vive le roi 4/1 westerm miller 2/1 and Pied du roi 5/1… my logic was that the trainer does well over the last couple of weeks in september. I used the weeks filter on hrb to research this before backing. Good luck today Josh 🙂
Yep good luck too – he certainly does look to come into form at this time of year, I missed the price on his two really so had a small interest in the baker runner and Bowen’s at 5s, albeit it looks like you have backed the most likely winners at decent odds!
Hi Josh, Don’t know if you just missed it or what, but, Mark Mcniff mentioned in the Bonus Report that you have sent out along with Stats Guide has just had a winner in the 2.35 at Downpatrick, at BFSP of 10.5. He is noted under the Best of Ireland report as having 23.26% SR along with 40.58 pts profit. After the first two winners at Newmarket the day has started really well. Thank you kindly.
No I didn’t miss him – I looked at him, wrote him on notepad and left him, what a plonker! – thought he was just a bit too poor at track LTO – sometimes I really should just trust the stats, as i just did at Newmarket! I won’t put up all the good stuff from the guides all the time – not fair on those that have bought guide for one thing – but glad you have used the bonus report to good effect! Super stuff. (still cursing myself)