An indifferent day yesterday but one well backed 5/2 winner >6/4 ensured while it was a losing day for me personally it wasn’t a disaster. All the Perth chasers were quite poor in truth although Presented was sent off at 11/2, backed from 10/1 – its a shame that he then ran like a 10/1 shot!
George Baker did have a winner at Kempton 6/1- his AW runners are harder to predict in September historically however the trainer/jockey combo was the way in with that one. I believe I have highlighted it before at some point in the past. Baker/Cosgrave/Kempton Handicaps/20/1 or under: 43 bets / 10 wins / 23 places / +50.5 SP (+12 this year)
I have posted a trainers stats piece if you are yet to have a flick through and as promised the ‘qualifiers’ are below..
Race 1 – 2.00pm
Linguistic (prohibitive odds!?) / Impediment (market support vital, 8/1 or under)
Race 2 – 2.35
Nothing from those trainers but some stats that would have been in today’s ‘shortlist’
Hugo Palmer is 5/12, 6 places with handicap debutants in past year. 1/3 at Newmarket. Runs Ronnie Baird here. He also runs Peru is the 3.30 Ponte as well. Both ‘qualify’.
Race 3 – 3.10
Queens Pearl – runs for Varian who is 2/7, 3 places at handicaps at the meeting since 2010, 2/6, 3 places with 3yos.
Race 4 – 3.40
Tasleet – possibly strongest ‘stat’ horse of the card – Haggas has strong stats with this type, even better stats with those that ran at York LTO, and with those that finished 1st LTO. Ticks plenty of ‘stats’ boxes in terms of the type of horse this trainer does well with at this meeting.
Race 5 – 4.15
Arabian Commet (16/1 or under) – could be interetsing EW bet for Haggas again.
Race 6 – 4.50
Peterhof for Sir Michael – 8/1 or under.
Race 7 – 5.20
Rifle Range, again for Varian, same stats as above
I have not looked at the races or indeed the horses, simply those that ‘qualify’ of interest from the trainers stats post I have put up for this meeting. Do consult those stats and use as you please. Some are obviously more robust than others, and as always treat such sample sizes with a bit of caution.
4.00 Ponte – New Bidder comes out again after running a stormer at Ayr by himself down the near side. He could be better drawn but looks like he could get out and get to the front – if so he could take some catching. From a quick glance the Fahey horse is an obvious threat – with 4 places I have had 1/2 on New Bidder EW. It all depends whether that last run has taken anything out of him, but if he repeats it he wont be too far away here.
4.25 Perth – R Dobbin/C Nicol/Perth handicaps: 5/16, 8 places, +2.53 SP. They run Politeness in 4.25 – solid yardstick who should be thereabouts. From a quick glance at race Its All An Act also caught the eye back over hurdles, although am never a massive fan of those switching back – but he doesn’t look like he relishes chasing.
There is a card at Chelmsford tonight and as always there I like to spot any front runners that could last all the way…
7.45 – Mighty Zip, with a decent speed rating, is interesting at a double figure price. His turf form has been poor but maybe he just likes the AW. He will need to be quick out from the car park, otherwise game over – draw makes it tough but I will have a nibble at those odds to find out.
3.10 Newm (Ivory, 16/1 or under): Golden Amber/Links Drive Lady
3.30 Ponte – Boutan (8/1 or under, bigger ones have been winning/placing)
4.00 Ponte Nezar (8/1 or under)
4.35 Ponte El Beau (8/1 or under)
7.15 Chelm – Mr Soprano (16/1 or under)