Tip ‘Shortlist’ of the Day: 23/09/15

Yesterday’s post and the stats guide helped find plenty of you some decent winners yesterday, and some decent placed horses, which is what it is all about, and which is why I keep rambling on. Fanshawe 5/2>6/4 and Gone To Far (11/2) were the two main winners on the blog and Mr Williams was unlucky with 3 placed horses, one at 66/1 >50/1. I didn’t have a penny on EW but I know some of you did, so well done. 

I do owe you an apology. I left Hint of Mint (easy 14/1 winner, was 20s in places night before) on my notepad when he should have been on the shortlist. Stats Guide users would have found him but as compelling was that the Geegeez Handicap 1st run report told me that Scott was 5/19 with handicap debutants in the last 2 years. Make that 6/20 now. He should have been posted. 

Amanda Perret also had an easy 10/1 winner for the ‘AW Switchers’ micro system posted up a few weeks ago. I will start posting those selections from now on, her and Fanshawe. 

Trainer Track Profiles users (the ‘stats guide’) which includes me, have had a right good time of it to date. I have personally used it to find winners at 20/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 14/1 and I know a few of you have used the stats to point to a few more as well, including Jonjos Mr Shantou who won at 9/1 yesterday. If you ignore his hurdlers when McLernon is up he is now 7/31 with handicap hurdlers at the track.(1/17 with that jockey) I missed him too!

I would say for £27 this stats guide is turning out to be rather good value, with many users having paid for it many times over already. 

***

Onto today…

Shortlist…

3.55 Redcar – a few stats align to make Judicial Enquiry a decent EW bet (4 places) at 8/1. Ed Walker is 4/13, 6 places at the track but is also 3/4, 4 places here with handicap debutants. I have also checked to see that Lee is 7/28, 25% SR when riding for him as well. There could well be enough there to make him a ‘tip’ but it is a 2 year old nursery at the end of the day. I have backed him £15 EW, so 1.5 points for me. Drops in class, steps up in trip. All positives. 

8.25 Kempton – Fanshawe is at it again – Kempton, Freddy T, ‘AW Switcher’ – how can I not back Osipova at 5/1! A hot fav to take on but if you are not convinced of the power of micro angles/stats such as these then you really never will be. This angle alone will pay for a nice weekend break over the course of 12 months, the market still hasnt jumped on. 

To Perth…not so much stats here but some chasers that caught my eye… (note I have just looked at the horse here using a quick glance with the tools at my disposal, do have a look at the races yourself if you decide to follow me in) Based on the prices I was happy to have a nibble…

-3.30 Solway Legend. Well Harrison does have a stella record with her chasers here (consult the free summer jumping profiles) and this horse helped those stats LTO. I thought 7/2 was more than fair given he is the only one proven in all race conditions. He jumps, likes the track, stays, ground no problem, in form and progressive. NTDs chasers should always be feared at this time of year – well all his runners really – and his Bar of Mine will probably give him most to do. He is new to the yard and has a bit to prove, but is open any amount of improvement. 

4.05 – Little Pop – not such a good 3/1 shot but I have had 1/2 point on. Unexposed he will need to jump better than LTO but should have learnt a lot. If getting into a rythm on the front end he could take some catching. That is an if though, a few niggles there and 3s just about ok, just. 

5.15 – I’m sorry but how is Presented a 10/1 shot in here. It makes me think I have missed something or it really isnt his day, but from what I can see on paper that is a silly price. He ticks every box, much like his stable mate above, and has old form in this class to suggest he will be competitive. Maybe he won’t but i couldn’t leave 10s alone, I have backed to win only but if he completes he must go rather close to placing at worst. The Pipe horse is the danger but we backed him last time out – well he was on the shortlist- he was maybe fortunate there due to a faller who was going well and I am not sure how strong that race was – but he won’t be far away and may well make 3s look an ok price. King of the Worlds, if fit (decent enough record fresh) would be interesting as well for a trainer with good stats here with chasers. It does look a decent little chase mind and you could make cases for most, but taking 10s allows for that. 

Goodwood…

again no stats and same caveats above but there are two ok sprint handicaps at the end of the card..

4.55 – Deeds Not Words should not be as big at 11/2 to my eyes and as such have backed him. Harwoods Star won for us and Williams LTO and as a micro qualifier has been backed as well. He should go well, hopefully one of them wins. 

5.25 – Threave looks as good a 5/2 shot as you will find today to my eyes. Plenty in her favour and she did really well to win from the carpark over Sandowns 5f last time. She was wide all the way and that takes some doing. The rise could stop her but i think 5/2 was fair given the oppo. Also a Williams qualifier as well in here…

5.20 Kemp – Finally- Freddy T and Ed Vaughan are 4/8, 6 places when teaming up here. Xcelebration ran well enough LTO for me to have a go at 11/2.

****

September Trainers 

3.20 Red – Spend a Penny (8/1 or under)

4.55 Good – Harwoods Star (16/1 or under)

5.25 Good – Ohsosecret (16/1 or under)

***

Good Luck. 

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

8 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, Just to say that the stats guide is probably the best thing since sliced bread! Seriously, this is an excellent compilation as it combines many factors…as a method of finding profits (as opposed to finding “winners”) this is the one of the best I have used…no I am not on commission nor am I a relative just in case anyone is wondering..but just to say that if the performance of this way of looking at races continues over the season I believe you have found a winning formula that will prove invaluable. Cheers and gd lck.

    john 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers John, much appreciated. Yes I had a feeling it could turn out to be quite useful but until put to the test it is hard to know. So far so good, and as you say will be interesting how it pans out over the season but it should be useful. This game is all about profit over winners and the long term view – hopefully the next few months will be quite exciting. Glad you are enjoying it.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • i joined the stats last week but i cannot get them up can you tell me how

    james 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi James, please email me … info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and we will sort it out,like a few people I suspect my automated email system doesn’t like your address for some reason.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Hello Josh

    Are you intending to produce a similar guide for the flat & aw please

    Brian

    Brian 2 years ago Reply


    • Hello Brian…
      In short yes I should think so. I actually hadn’t thought about the AW so thanks for that! (mind pre occupied with jumping stuff!) That can be a free report, no problem, looking at main winter AW season. Flat is trickier than jumps in terms of the approach, also want to play around with some ‘Trainer Profiles’. AW Trainer Track Profiles would be good practice for the Flat, to see if it is as useful etc. In truth I didn’t know if there would be a market for this Jumps guide but am now convinced there is. although as I have said previously it is useful for my own betting anyway, regardless is anyone bought it! Thankfully a few of you have.

      Do keep reminding me about the AW one from time to time! I will aim to get something together by end of Oct. A few other free reports I want to pull together before then, namely a Jumpers Profiles pack, if I can find some.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Baker slipped one in on the AW tonight Eton Rambler 7/1 i would be interested in an AW stat guide as i love the sand, i know its not everyone bag but the main season is great!!!

    james 2 years ago Reply


    • Yes he did…his overall record on AW at this time not great, think he has had enough losers to wipe that out..although that Trainer/Jockey combo on AW is profitable all year – I was losing a bit on the day before that race…!

      Yes will see what can come up with, need to think about how to organise ete, by distance, class, age restrictions etc.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


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