Tip ‘Shortlist’ of the Day: 23/09/15

Yesterday’s post and the stats guide helped find plenty of you some decent winners yesterday, and some decent placed horses, which is what it is all about, and which is why I keep rambling on. Fanshawe 5/2>6/4 and Gone To Far (11/2) were the two main winners on the blog and Mr Williams was unlucky with 3 placed horses, one at 66/1 >50/1. I didn’t have a penny on EW but I know some of you did, so well done. 

I do owe you an apology. I left Hint of Mint (easy 14/1 winner, was 20s in places night before) on my notepad when he should have been on the shortlist. Stats Guide users would have found him but as compelling was that the Geegeez Handicap 1st run report told me that Scott was 5/19 with handicap debutants in the last 2 years. Make that 6/20 now. He should have been posted. 

Amanda Perret also had an easy 10/1 winner for the ‘AW Switchers’ micro system posted up a few weeks ago. I will start posting those selections from now on, her and Fanshawe. 

Trainer Track Profiles users (the ‘stats guide’) which includes me, have had a right good time of it to date. I have personally used it to find winners at 20/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 14/1 and I know a few of you have used the stats to point to a few more as well, including Jonjos Mr Shantou who won at 9/1 yesterday. If you ignore his hurdlers when McLernon is up he is now 7/31 with handicap hurdlers at the track.(1/17 with that jockey) I missed him too!

I would say for £27 this stats guide is turning out to be rather good value, with many users having paid for it many times over already. 

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Onto today…

Shortlist…

3.55 Redcar – a few stats align to make Judicial Enquiry a decent EW bet (4 places) at 8/1. Ed Walker is 4/13, 6 places at the track but is also 3/4, 4 places here with handicap debutants. I have also checked to see that Lee is 7/28, 25% SR when riding for him as well. There could well be enough there to make him a ‘tip’ but it is a 2 year old nursery at the end of the day. I have backed him £15 EW, so 1.5 points for me. Drops in class, steps up in trip. All positives. 

8.25 Kempton – Fanshawe is at it again – Kempton, Freddy T, ‘AW Switcher’ – how can I not back Osipova at 5/1! A hot fav to take on but if you are not convinced of the power of micro angles/stats such as these then you really never will be. This angle alone will pay for a nice weekend break over the course of 12 months, the market still hasnt jumped on. 

To Perth…not so much stats here but some chasers that caught my eye… (note I have just looked at the horse here using a quick glance with the tools at my disposal, do have a look at the races yourself if you decide to follow me in) Based on the prices I was happy to have a nibble…

-3.30 Solway Legend. Well Harrison does have a stella record with her chasers here (consult the free summer jumping profiles) and this horse helped those stats LTO. I thought 7/2 was more than fair given he is the only one proven in all race conditions. He jumps, likes the track, stays, ground no problem, in form and progressive. NTDs chasers should always be feared at this time of year – well all his runners really – and his Bar of Mine will probably give him most to do. He is new to the yard and has a bit to prove, but is open any amount of improvement. 

4.05 – Little Pop – not such a good 3/1 shot but I have had 1/2 point on. Unexposed he will need to jump better than LTO but should have learnt a lot. If getting into a rythm on the front end he could take some catching. That is an if though, a few niggles there and 3s just about ok, just. 

5.15 – I’m sorry but how is Presented a 10/1 shot in here. It makes me think I have missed something or it really isnt his day, but from what I can see on paper that is a silly price. He ticks every box, much like his stable mate above, and has old form in this class to suggest he will be competitive. Maybe he won’t but i couldn’t leave 10s alone, I have backed to win only but if he completes he must go rather close to placing at worst. The Pipe horse is the danger but we backed him last time out – well he was on the shortlist- he was maybe fortunate there due to a faller who was going well and I am not sure how strong that race was – but he won’t be far away and may well make 3s look an ok price. King of the Worlds, if fit (decent enough record fresh) would be interesting as well for a trainer with good stats here with chasers. It does look a decent little chase mind and you could make cases for most, but taking 10s allows for that. 

Goodwood…

again no stats and same caveats above but there are two ok sprint handicaps at the end of the card..

4.55 – Deeds Not Words should not be as big at 11/2 to my eyes and as such have backed him. Harwoods Star won for us and Williams LTO and as a micro qualifier has been backed as well. He should go well, hopefully one of them wins. 

5.25 – Threave looks as good a 5/2 shot as you will find today to my eyes. Plenty in her favour and she did really well to win from the carpark over Sandowns 5f last time. She was wide all the way and that takes some doing. The rise could stop her but i think 5/2 was fair given the oppo. Also a Williams qualifier as well in here…

5.20 Kemp – Finally- Freddy T and Ed Vaughan are 4/8, 6 places when teaming up here. Xcelebration ran well enough LTO for me to have a go at 11/2.

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September Trainers 

3.20 Red – Spend a Penny (8/1 or under)

4.55 Good – Harwoods Star (16/1 or under)

5.25 Good – Ohsosecret (16/1 or under)

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Good Luck.