A ‘Big Race Preview’ today and some notes on a few stats pointers for Kelso..
Rule The World 1 point EW 13/2 (Bet365 5 places ) 4 places general
A few stats pointers as a guide…
17/18 Top 8 LTO (17/218 runners, 59 places…1/76, 12 places 9th or worse)
17/18 Aged 9 or younger…1/59. 7 places 10+
11/18 Top 5 in market
13/18 had ran at track
8+ career wins 0/43, 7 places
12/18 – 4-11 chase runs (12/143, opposed to 6/151 outside this)
17/18 had last start over fences or hurdles (9/213 fences, 8/59 hurdles= +51 SP)
17/18 0-4 chase wins (1/35, 5 places 5+ chase wins)
Trainer of note: Mullins 2/22, 5 places, McNamara 3/12, 6 places (has a reserve), Bolger 0/10, 4 places
Using some of those stats and having gone through every runner my ‘shortlist’ was Rule The World, The Paparrazi Kid, Ravishes, Lots of Memories and Urano.
In the end I went for the horse that is usually a sound jumper, has proven stamina and loves heavy ground. He slipped up last time when going really well at Galway and while there were a couple of furlongs still to go I am confident he would have at least placed there. The one winner of this not to finish in Top 8 LTO did unseat – it looked a soft and unlucky slip up, after jumping a fence. He ran really well in the Irish National so stamina is not a problem. He is 0/8, 5 places chasing and has just been unlucky, rather than a shirker – his hurdles form shows he knows how to win. He will track the pace here and I can’t see him being too far away. The concern is the weight in this ground and weather it bogs him down- but he has a big weight because of his class and gets some help from a jockey who is riding well – 8/60, 18 places, over fences to date, 2/9 for this trainers. All in all if he gets round, and is over that slip last time, he should give us a real good run for our money.
I like Lots of Memories because he is unexposed and has clearly been aimed at this. I couldnt put you off a saver. His chase profile just wasn’t convincing enough in the end with his stamina over fences to prove – he was pulled up in the Irish National. The jockey was a concern as well – career stats of 3/122 over fences – I dont know how many of those had lively chances but he is also 0/3, 0 places on this horse. Still, he should go well enough creeping in from the back.
Paparazzi Kid looks likely to go well but doesnt seem to stand much racing. He is unexposed and will love the ground. He does also have stamina for this trip to prove over fences and that is a slight question. Ravishes was 9th LTO and ticks a lot of boxes. He is unexposed and the ground will be fine. He was just a bit too poor LTO over hurdles when fancied, although his chase form before that gives him a squeak. Uranao is interesting at a price. He is unexposed but has some class questions, 0/4, 0 places in G2 handicaps and 0/5 in the class IRE10k-20k – I am not sure if he will be good enough.
It doesn’t look like they will hang around in this race and the pace could collapse. Rule the World should be in the right place to capitalise and his class/ability should see him there at the finish.
To follow…(work in progress, completed by 10.30)
From the free stats guide…(there is a link to an updated one in comments below – having found a few typos – apologies)
5.10 Sayer/Hughes team up with Sendiym here and they are 3/7 , 4 places over fences at track – this horse being one of those wins. He should be fine over this trip but does have it to prove although he should not be too far away.
5.40 – Touch of Steel goes for Ewart here who has a good record with handicap hurdlers and is 4/8 with jockey – this is a poor race and this looks a very poor horse, with no form to date that could tempt a bet. You then look for things they are doing differently and he does step up in trip here, as well as getting blinkers for first time. As such, were he to suddenly find form, given trainer record, you would not be shocked. However, given form to date you wouldn’t be shocked if he tailed off, but he will be a decent price.
Stand Clear runs for Chris Grant who does ok with hurdlers here too, esp the profit levels, a modest SR of 18% to date. He hasnt had the horse long and while he doesnt like winning should like the ground…the fact a horse with his form is a single figure price says all you need to know about the race.
6.10 – McCain does well here with handicap chasers and runs Swift Arrow – he has won after shorter breaks than this and the question is whether he is fit. He knows how to win and has a great record over CD. There is also quite a bit of pace on here which could collapse if taking each other on.
(I havent had time to look at those races in depth, only a quick glance at the horses concerned)
Finally the bumper…the bonus guide just looks at those having their first start but i had a quick look at overall stats for such runners at track and McCain is 3/9, 5 places with his NHF runners here and Richards is 4/15, 7 places (3/11 with those running for first time, unlike horse in this race)
Another good day yesterday…I indicated Baker’s horses at all prices had been going well and he had a winner at 14/1. I know a few of you backed him. If sticking to ‘official’ qualifiers they wiped their face with a 4/1 winner and some losers.
Baker (8/1 or under – keep eye on bigger priced ones)
4.35 Yarmouth – Humidor
Ivory (16/1 or under)
5.05 Yarmouth – Stake Acclaim.