Tip of the Day 17/09/15

Rule The World ran a fine race in the Kerry National yesterday and maybe the weight just told in that ground near the end, but as expected/hoped he gave us an exciting run for our money to return a 1 point profit to advised stakes. From the shortlist of 5, 3 were in the Top 4 and I am rather pleased the Mullins horse dogged it in near the line as leaving 20/1 winners on a shortlist, unbacked, is never a nice feeling! I would have struggled to pick the winner on this occasion, albeit a case could be made. They ended up going a more sensible gallop than I anticipated and he got a fairly easy time at the front end. Having run a big race only 3 days before that was some performance – I focussed a bit too much on his class maybe, he was 0/11, 0 places in Listed and above handicap chases, but had ran well in a decent enough races on his last two runs, and had a light weight which helped – in those conditions an ability to handle the ground, stay and jump is arguably more important than a perceived ability level. 

Thankfully there was a 20/1 winner on the blog yesterday as a Touch of Steel rather justified the ‘stats’ way in, and was an indication of how valuable such stats are. He was backed into 9/1 and duly obliged – I know a few of you were on at 16s, 14s etc so well done. If he wasn’t doing a couple of things differently (step up in trip +blinkers) I may well have left him, but at that price he was worth a go. The Grant hurdler was just poor, the Sayer horse isnt a good jumper and I am not sure he stays and the McCain chaser drifted and ran like he needed the run. 

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There are no tips today and I am a bit busy with the ‘internal launch’ of the full guide, Trainer Track Profiles 2015/16. I plan to email out at around 10am so you can get hold of it then. 

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SEPTEMBER TRAINERs

Nothing to report yesterday after a couple of non runners. 

J J Quinn -8/1 or under (has had a double fig odds winner, was on a Sunday when I didn’t post and I didn’t back him, taking his figures to around 2/43 or so with those over 8/1 – like Baker they could just all be running well) 

2.25 Ayr – Our Time Will Come 

3.15 Pont – Final Countdown

4.35 Ayr – El Beau 

4.55 Pont – Arthurs Secret 

5.05 Ayr – Scrafton 

Dean Ivory (16/1 0r under)

7.20 Chelm – Fossa  (he was a ‘tip’ horse when running as if he needed the run – I am rather confident he will win a race at C6 soon and will be hoping to get my money back with interest at some point. 3/7, 5 places in C6 on AW, all wins to date when 6/1 or under – market support may be key, 0/9, 1 place above this price to date, although I won’t let that put me off some interest)

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Good Luck 

 

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