Tip of the Day 15/09/15

Another decent day for the blog yesterday with a total of +8.5 points profit – if backing every horse to 1 point win stakes (i didnt). The shortlist made +2 points – with the Pipe horse relishing the step up in trip – I should have trusted the Pipes at that price, 7/1 – another official tip that got away – I backed him, and I hope some of you did too. The September trainers kept ticking along with Baker and BJ having a winner each at 9/2 and 6/1. 

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UPDATE: Well the kiss of death again from me there. I should have deliberated a bit longer and kept my money in my pocket. Weak in the market, slow away, never travelling, tailed off last. Another shocker that I didn’t forsee in what were perfect race conditions given his record. Awful and I am a bit dumbfounded again given he had been running ok. Leaving winners in the shortlist (not today mind) and tipping donkeys has been the story of the past few weeks. 

5.00 Catterick 

Circuitous – 1 point win 5/1 (WH) , 9/2 (BV,PP,SJ) *

*as of 09.32

I have deliberated over this one for long enough now and am happy to go with him at 5s / 9/2. There are no stats as such – when looking at the Instant Expert tab on Geegeez he looked to have a decent chance and on closer inspection I came to the conclusion that if he ran his race he would be very hard to beat here. 

Around this time two years ago he was winning the Ayr Bronze Cup, a Class 2 race. He drops into C6 here. Having looked at his profile, when running in C6, over 6f, he is 12,1,4,1,1 – running in C5/6 over 6f he is… 12,1,4,1,1,10,3,1,4,7,4.  That 7 was after a 280+ break so ignoring that he is 4/10, 5 places in such conditions. That is solid enough. 

Running in C6 would suggest he has lost a lot of form, but in truth I don’t think he has really and arguably hasnt had his conditions very often since his last success. He is 5/17, 7 places over 6f, opposed to 1/14, 5 places over further – that one win was dominating a small field but it is questionable whether he truly stays further than 6f in a strongly run race. He is also only 1/10, 3 places on Good to Firm, opposed to 5/23, 9 places on Good or worse. Since that victory at Ayr he has only run over 6f, on Good or worse ground, 3 times, finishing 7 (7/4 fav, poor), 18 (in a hot C2,33/1), 7 (289 days off). The rest of his runs have mainly been over 7f+ and/or on a quick surface. 

His last three runs have been fine, and indicate he is in good enough form. On his last run he was headed before the final furlong over 7f, having led for a long way. Race before that is at Carlisle which is a very stiff 6f, fading again. And the race before that he led for a long way over 7f, before fading. 

He is an out and out front runner and I think he will get a lead here. He will get every yard of this trip so i expect them to make plenty of use of him. Makin gets the leg up which also caught the eye, having been a go to man for this trainer this season, teaming up to good effect plenty of times. 

Given all of the above I had to have a dart at 5/1 – that seemed big. 

The negatives…well this is about whether he runs his race, as if he does I think he wins, and any return to that Ayr form would see him blow this lot away. It is a C6 race though and a lot of these have bits and pieces of form that would give them a chance and I found it hard to confidently rule out any in here, although there are a couple who have yet to win a race. If the selection doesnt win there are any number who could, based on recent consistent runs…the likes of Debt Free Dame, Munjally, Cloak And Degas – would be thereabouts, as the market suggests. 

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Shortlist

-2.50 Yarmouth…these are shortlist horses I am not backing in this race -but for those who like their nurseries you may find this of use….there is a short price Gosden runner in here, who has every chance. Stats wise…The Varian horse – trainer 3/7, 6 places with handicap debutants at the track and is 10/32, 18 places with all handicappers at the track. Likewise Haggas has a decent record here in general and with handicap debutants -9/19, 9 places at the track. Jockey booking suggests he isn’t fancied mind. Finally Johnston and De Sousa are 6/20, 7 places when teaming up here – they run one in this race also. I reckon SDS could pinch a lead if he wants one, and that could make the race interesting. All in all a tricky race indeed! 

3.30 Catterick – I did have a look at this race but it was a bit of a head-scratcher. However, after slightly longer than just a cursory glance (but not depth as with the selections race) Sartori and Pacngo look likely to go closest and may be worth some small support. 

Joe Fanning has a decent book of rides at Carlisle and I am always on the look out to see if he could front run on any and stay there. In the 6.45 he rides Mustaqbal who is getting short enough now. I think he needs it quick, and I am not sure how quick it will actually be. But, I think he could dominate from the front here and that could spell trouble for the rest, albeit he has been slightly disappointing to date. His other rides are in races I wasn’t keen to attack, where the pace was not certain, albeit I dare say he will have at least one winner on the card. He does have a decent enough record when teaming up with Dalgleish at the track. 

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September Trainers 

Williams (16/1 or under) 

3.00 Catt – Chief Entertainer

4.30 Catt – Mezzotint 

-4.50 Yarmouth – Doctor Parkes 

Baker (8/1 or under – bigger priced ones been running well this year)

3.40 Chep – Aqua Ardens 

BJ

4.40 Chep – Borak 

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Good Luck