Tip of the Day 15/09/15

Another decent day for the blog yesterday with a total of +8.5 points profit – if backing every horse to 1 point win stakes (i didnt). The shortlist made +2 points – with the Pipe horse relishing the step up in trip – I should have trusted the Pipes at that price, 7/1 – another official tip that got away – I backed him, and I hope some of you did too. The September trainers kept ticking along with Baker and BJ having a winner each at 9/2 and 6/1. 

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UPDATE: Well the kiss of death again from me there. I should have deliberated a bit longer and kept my money in my pocket. Weak in the market, slow away, never travelling, tailed off last. Another shocker that I didn’t forsee in what were perfect race conditions given his record. Awful and I am a bit dumbfounded again given he had been running ok. Leaving winners in the shortlist (not today mind) and tipping donkeys has been the story of the past few weeks. 

 

 

5.00 Catterick 

Circuitous – 1 point win 5/1 (WH) , 9/2 (BV,PP,SJ) *

*as of 09.32

 

I have deliberated over this one for long enough now and am happy to go with him at 5s / 9/2. There are no stats as such – when looking at the Instant Expert tab on Geegeez he looked to have a decent chance and on closer inspection I came to the conclusion that if he ran his race he would be very hard to beat here. 

Around this time two years ago he was winning the Ayr Bronze Cup, a Class 2 race. He drops into C6 here. Having looked at his profile, when running in C6, over 6f, he is 12,1,4,1,1 – running in C5/6 over 6f he is… 12,1,4,1,1,10,3,1,4,7,4.  That 7 was after a 280+ break so ignoring that he is 4/10, 5 places in such conditions. That is solid enough. 

Running in C6 would suggest he has lost a lot of form, but in truth I don’t think he has really and arguably hasnt had his conditions very often since his last success. He is 5/17, 7 places over 6f, opposed to 1/14, 5 places over further – that one win was dominating a small field but it is questionable whether he truly stays further than 6f in a strongly run race. He is also only 1/10, 3 places on Good to Firm, opposed to 5/23, 9 places on Good or worse. Since that victory at Ayr he has only run over 6f, on Good or worse ground, 3 times, finishing 7 (7/4 fav, poor), 18 (in a hot C2,33/1), 7 (289 days off). The rest of his runs have mainly been over 7f+ and/or on a quick surface. 

His last three runs have been fine, and indicate he is in good enough form. On his last run he was headed before the final furlong over 7f, having led for a long way. Race before that is at Carlisle which is a very stiff 6f, fading again. And the race before that he led for a long way over 7f, before fading. 

He is an out and out front runner and I think he will get a lead here. He will get every yard of this trip so i expect them to make plenty of use of him. Makin gets the leg up which also caught the eye, having been a go to man for this trainer this season, teaming up to good effect plenty of times. 

Given all of the above I had to have a dart at 5/1 – that seemed big. 

The negatives…well this is about whether he runs his race, as if he does I think he wins, and any return to that Ayr form would see him blow this lot away. It is a C6 race though and a lot of these have bits and pieces of form that would give them a chance and I found it hard to confidently rule out any in here, although there are a couple who have yet to win a race. If the selection doesnt win there are any number who could, based on recent consistent runs…the likes of Debt Free Dame, Munjally, Cloak And Degas – would be thereabouts, as the market suggests. 

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Shortlist

-2.50 Yarmouth…these are shortlist horses I am not backing in this race -but for those who like their nurseries you may find this of use….there is a short price Gosden runner in here, who has every chance. Stats wise…The Varian horse – trainer 3/7, 6 places with handicap debutants at the track and is 10/32, 18 places with all handicappers at the track. Likewise Haggas has a decent record here in general and with handicap debutants -9/19, 9 places at the track. Jockey booking suggests he isn’t fancied mind. Finally Johnston and De Sousa are 6/20, 7 places when teaming up here – they run one in this race also. I reckon SDS could pinch a lead if he wants one, and that could make the race interesting. All in all a tricky race indeed! 

3.30 Catterick – I did have a look at this race but it was a bit of a head-scratcher. However, after slightly longer than just a cursory glance (but not depth as with the selections race) Sartori and Pacngo look likely to go closest and may be worth some small support. 

Joe Fanning has a decent book of rides at Carlisle and I am always on the look out to see if he could front run on any and stay there. In the 6.45 he rides Mustaqbal who is getting short enough now. I think he needs it quick, and I am not sure how quick it will actually be. But, I think he could dominate from the front here and that could spell trouble for the rest, albeit he has been slightly disappointing to date. His other rides are in races I wasn’t keen to attack, where the pace was not certain, albeit I dare say he will have at least one winner on the card. He does have a decent enough record when teaming up with Dalgleish at the track. 

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September Trainers 

Williams (16/1 or under) 

3.00 Catt – Chief Entertainer

4.30 Catt – Mezzotint 

-4.50 Yarmouth – Doctor Parkes 

Baker (8/1 or under – bigger priced ones been running well this year)

3.40 Chep – Aqua Ardens 

BJ

4.40 Chep – Borak 

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Good Luck 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

    1. Cheers Joe, going shouldnt be a problem, he has winning/placed form on Soft so that won’t be an excuse – none of them have much form on heavy. Hopefully it makes it harder to come from the back as well, provided he doesnt go off too quickly.

  1. Hi Josh.

    Frank from Spain, amateur racing punter. I’d like to congrat you for your advices, they are awesome, I really enjoy your analysis of the races. Keep it up

    1. Hello Frank…thanks for message and thanks for reading! Your praise was slightly premature, although the blog posts have found plenty of winners at least, even if I keep ‘tipping’ the wrong ones.

  2. Could I ask if you back all your other tips on here ..Iam backing the recommended tips to 10 pound per point …sticking with them but losing a bit of heart …

    1. Hi Harold…firstly it is a trial and until a turn around I would probably reduce stakes…I don’t have a historical record of success with my ‘public’ tipping, when tipping 1 horse a day and until I turn it around and prove myself, I would go steady. I am confident I will turn it around and the trial is just about still in profit. It has been a horror run for quite some time and I am trying hard to address it. But, I will always be in the 20-25% SR range, which does mean bad runs at times, although this is bad. However, at the prices i back at it doesnt take many winners to lift the spirits, although just one winner would be nice.

      Yes I do back the shortlist horses, esp now have moved to a more ‘considered’ list- I back most of them to 1/2 points, as I do the September trainers – and will specify, as above if I am not. It is getting to the stage where I should just trust the stats and to some extent ignore the horse as my judgement a bit off at the moment. I posted the other day about the shortlist – since start of Sept that was operating at a 25% odd strike rate and is approx 45+ points up, as a rough guide. I am trying to make it more focussed..

      However, the tipping aspect will be judged on the official tips – and staking is up to you, I back them all to £20 a point so would like my form to turn around soon enough. When you know others are backing your selections there really is no worse feeling in this game than seeing a run like today’s selection.

  3. Did have Aqua Gardens earlier ..stuck out at the price ..trainer had good stats course distance etc ..also been in outstanding form last few days …

    1. ah well that is good to hear, so did I! – you have used the info exactly as intended, making your own judgement with them, esp when price ‘outside of range’ as I wrote in post his bigger priced ones have been going well. Glad you were on, hopefully that lifts the gloom a bit!

  4. No moaning from me !! Had Sartori (8/1 e.w.) Aqua Ardens (12/1 e.w.) & Borak (7/2) – nice profit on the day. Can’t see where the problem is ?

    Well done Josh

    1. Thanks Bob..in general no problem, and I didn’t take Harold’s comments as moaning – but I know some are just following my main ‘tip’ when I put it up and when it looks like I only discovered horse racing yesterday I can understand current concerns!! All in all though, happy with the winners the posts are throwing up, and ‘official’ winners will come.

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