Tip of the Day 14/09/15

Another day where there are a few pointers but nothing I could be overly confident about tipping in. So, another no tip day. As ever a considered shortlist follows…

Shortist 

– John Gallagher has been in fine form, 4/8 last 14 days, and is 5/12, 6 places when teaming up with this jockey at Brighton. That makes Ada Lovelace of some interesting the 5.30 and 5s was fair enough. She has been holding her form well, as have a few of these, and will no doubt be thereabouts again. UP

-2.20 Stratford is a novice hurdle and not the type I would get carried away in. The power of the Ferguson yard with well bred ex flat horses has been the dominant feature of the summer jumping campaign and he has another short priced fav in here who won easily LTO (WON). NTD has a runner in here and he is 5/24, 10 places with non handicap hurdlers at the track, +60.88 SP . That figure is 4/13, 8 places when Sam is in the saddle, and if the fav falters, he could well pick up the pieces. UP

3.50 Stratford looks interesting – There is a Chris Gordon runner in here who will qualify although he now looks to be on a tough mark. But he stays, which could count for a lot in this race and trainer/jockey are 4/17, 5 places with their handicappers here. The David Pipe runner is interesting, him and Scu being 7/30, 12 places at the track with handicappers. Their Spending Time WON 6/1 is taking a big step up in trip and it is a guess as to whether he stays – 7s may be fair to go with the judgement of the trainer. If he improves for it he wont be too far away. 

-The 3.05 Listowel isnt a race to go mad in, but it is interesting that Fahey is 2/6, 3 places with his handicap debutants in the last 5 years for over 40 points SP. Clearly he doesnt run many but I suspect in the next 5 years he will have a couple of big priced winners again. He runs Time for Art here. His sires offspring generally handle heavy ground, but until they run on it you never know – the dam’s side is not so promising. But, the prices may allow a chance to be taken, confident in profit over time. …The meeting has since been Abandoned – but an interesting stat to note down for the future. 

5.40 Wolvs – finally, Robert Mills is 2/2 with stable newcomers in the last couple of years, 2/5, 2 places in last 5 years. Not stats to get too attached to but interesting nonetheless. He runs The Dancing Lord here and it will be fascinating how he goes in another open race. UP

I did have a good look at the 3.40 Wolvs – another poor quality handicap. Based on the instant expert tab, and a quick look at the unexposed runners I narrowed this down to Copper Cavalier, Sunrise Dance, Azerelle and Anieres Boy. The first three are the top three in the market and have obvious chances. Anieres runs for Mick Easterby who is 3/6, 4 places when teaming up with Makin here. However he is also only 3/83 with his handicap debutants in the last 5 years, and his runner has taken a walk in the market. There looks to be a lot of pace on paper in here and I have had a nibble at Azerelle, UP who will be held up and looks likely to stay, but, decent runs from any of the 4, or something else that looks to have no chance on paper, wouldnt be a surprise. 

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SEPTEMBER TRAINERS 

Williams (16/1 or under) 

-3.00 Bright – Katniss – UP

-4.00 Bright – Red House Rebel DNQ

-5.30 Bright – Welease Bwian UP

Baker (8/1 or under)

-3.30 Bright – Flutterbee WON 9/2

-4.30 Bright – Mendacious Harpy 2nd 13/2

Llewellyn (25/1 or under)

4.20 Strat – Going Nowhere Fast WON 6/1

Gordon (20/1 or under)

3.50 Strat – The Kings Assassin UP

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As always good luck with any bets you have.