Well, a superb day for the ‘shortlist’ yesterday and nearly a treble for the post as the main Tip of The Day went down by a nose. It was agonising as she was caught on the line. But, that is racing and it is best not to dwell on these things. I/we will benefit from nose victories and errors by opposition in future and it all evens itself out. I know a few of you backed her EW, so no damage done – I didn’t. King Muro hacked up on the bridle 7/2>5/2 but the fun was to come with Bosham – available at 33s last evening and in places early morning I think, he hacked up, leading all the way and winning like a C6 Frankel at 11/1 SP 🙂 I had 1/2 point on EW at 33s and that rather made my evening. Again, I know a few of you had a dart so well done.
It was great for the North and for racing I think to see Mecca’s Angel dot up for connections who are liked and respected among the racing fraternity it would appear. I had no idea what the ground would be like but it appeared to be perfect for her and she was a worthy winner. In soft/sticky ground you wouldn’t want to be taking her on. My two outsiders ran as such and were never in it.
Coincidentally if you are on Twitter, you can follow me @Josh_HW – I usually tweet this post as soon as it is up and I tweeted Bosham the evening before. You will have to ignore the odd non racing related tweet/retweet 🙂
Tip of The Day
2.55 Chester – Banzari 1 point win 5/1 (general)
5.20 Curragh – Empress Toorah- 1 point win 9/2 (WH) 4/1 (general)
Well I am going double handed again as I cannot split them and maybe I should have done this yesterday – and it takes the pressure off when I can’t find anything on a days racing. These selections are very much about the stats and the horse, not so much about the opposition.
Michael Bell dosn’t send many handicappers to Chester but they are worth a second look when he does. 6/26, 14 places since 2009 +8 SP, and 1/4, 3 places in the last year. That stat interested me but then I saw that he was also 2/5, 4 places with his handicap debutants here.
Everything about the way this horse has been campaigned suggests they think she could be very smart, and they clearly think she is up to gaining some black type down the line. Bell won this race last year with a similar type of horse, and having won her maiden impressively pitched her into the Cheshire Oaks here a few months ago. Given a break – not sure if due to a problem or just given time – I expect she will be fully tuned up.
There looks to be plenty of pace in here and from the low draw she should be able to tuck in on the rail and track it. She will need luck in running up the home straight but as long as she is not too far back should go close. Her speed figure is also impressive and I will just have to trust the trainer when it comes to her getting this trip.
They go 4/1 the field here which suggests there are no stand out ‘good things’ and at 5/1 I thought she was worth chancing given all of the above.
Comes here at the top of her game having won easily 5 days ago. The trainer is 8/34, 15 places with handicappers here and 4/8. 5 places in the last year. She is also 4/8. 5 places at the track when teaming up with this jockey. Everything looks set for another big run from this horse and 4/1 was more than fair. I also likes the pace angle – i think Roche will be able to lead if he wants, or at the very least sit handy. In these smallish fields that is what you want and hopefully he can steal the race turning in.
The concern is that one of the unexposed horses is now better handicapped but I am happy to take that chance at the odds. The danger is the Weld horse who is open to improvement but came off the pace in a larger field than this – there is a chance it is not run to suit – and he only got up late there. He wears blinkers suggesting he isnt the easiest. Clearly I wont be open mouthed if he wins. Bolger doesnt have a great record with handicap debutants, only 2/42 or so in the last year. Breathe Easy is interesting but has won over 10f and when he won over 8f that was a big field race – again this may not be run to suit and could be out paced. Chenega Bay too ages to win a maiden and I am not sure how good he is, but could be open to improvement on handicap debut.
It looks competitive but we will have track position and the horse is still improving. We should get a run for our money, provided she doesnt fold having run 5 days ago.
No big race previews today. I havent really had the time, nor mental energy, to dive into the Ebor which looks a cracker. I am sure there are plenty of decent previews out there.
Max Dynamite won yesterday – another to have run at Galway LTO – my stats related to the handicaps and in truth I didnt look at the non handicap stats – but clearly a run there is a decent pointer.
Clondaw Warrior / Quick Jack / Wicklow Brave all ran at Galway LTO and should be taken very seriously as such, given those handicap stats are now 5/14, 8 places since 2009, after the Tony Martin winner on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how they go. I haven’t looked at the race at all as yet.
Another quiet flat festival for me and due to some failures in the past I won’t find bets, or preview races, for the sake of it. There are many better form judges than me with non-handicaps and group races, especially 8f+, and they are not really my thing. Automatically that excludes quite a lot of races.
August Trainers (14/1 or under)
3.25 Sand – Oh So Sassy
3.30 Chest – Clockmaker
5.25 York – Accipiter
Good Luck with your Saturday wagers, it looks as tough as ever.