No bets today although some notes of interest below.
The two selections on Saturday didn’t run very well, simple as that really. The horse at the Curragh faded suggesting the run came too soon – you have to trust the trainer with such runners and until they run on the track it is hard to know if a horse has recovered from a run within the last week or so – some thrive on it, this one didn’t. I was happy to take that chance at the odds. Bell’s runner at Chester was either not fit enough, didnt’t stay, or not good enough – or a combination of all three. The stats were solid, the market suggested she was fit, and she had a perfect ‘trip’ as the Americans would say. Ie track position looked good to me and there were no excuses with how the race panned out. When the button was pressed there was nothing there. Given the trainer won the race last year you would like to think he was disappointed with that. Anyway, time to move on…
While there were some ok ‘ways in’ today I was lacking confidence in the actual horses – and I don’t want to be ‘tipping’ horses just based on stats alone too often, albeit sometimes that is enough (esp if odds are decent), so what you do with the info is up to you…
5.15 Kempton – is interesting. Isamol runs for Perrett and is a qualifier for the ‘AW Switchers’ micro angle I posted the other day. She has a 30% SR with such horses (20/66, 30 places -inc wins-) and ‘the Doyler’ gets the ride here – he is 4/5 when riding the trainer’s horses at the track. Not used often he is normally put up on the good ones it would appear, albeit a very small sample. There is enough there for me to have had a bet, albeit it is difficult to be overly confident on the horse. The three handicap runs since his maiden victory havent been great, although he may have ran out of stamina LTO. He gets blinkers for the first time here which may do the trick, or they may not. The trainer is 0/39 in last 30 days as well. So, there are pros and cons. 4/1 is just about ok i think, and while he may well win, I didn’t have the confidence I wanted to ‘tip’ him as such – a poor run would be no surprise either – and I am betting him as I will do all her micro angle qualifiers from now on for this angle.
5.30 Brighton – Simcock is 15/49, 27 places (inc wins) at the track since 2009, +28 points profit. He is also 5/19, 7 places with handicap debutants in the last year. That makes Under Siege of interest, abeit 11/4 and 5/2 feels skinny enough. This is his first run for the trainer, and after an 81 day break. It looks a weak race and he is in the could be anything category. There just isnt much form to go on – having won a weak maiden – and there is just a bit too much guesswork, including fitness (market suggests fine) for me to tip – he could bolt up, he could be mid division.
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AUGUST TRAINERS
2.30 Bright – Tancred
4.45 Kempt – Royal Rettie (trainer also 6/14 with hncp debutants here) Duke of North also runs for Fanshawe ‘AW Switchers’ micro system.
7.55 Leic – Fever Few
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Good Luck
5 Responses
I agree with you views on today racing no solid selections from me and I have just had the one bet.
4:55 – Kempton – Couldn’t resist a nibble at 6s on the Fanshawe runner Duke of North – The 389 days absence was a slight concern but the trainer is 4-5 with runners coming here after a run on the turf off a break between 181-300 days. no runners over that break from racing.
5:15 – Kempton – – Doyle and Perrett angle looked a good one when I looked at the race but the stable form put me off. I can see why you have had a bet and i might regret not joining, hope he wins for you though
5:30 – Brighton – The price put me off the Simcock horse but the trainers starts at the track are very strong
i meant 4:55 at kempton
great start to the day Josh with Tancred winning at Brighton. Got 21.00 on Betfair earlier. Thanks
Blimey, that is a good price well done Allan. yes i had 1/2 point on at 10s I think before drift to 16s SP. Think Dore’s can now be backed up to 16/1 – all winners in Aug were 14/1 or under SP, but 16/1 shots were 0/4, 3 places – now 1/5, 4 places. He is 0/5, 0 places above 16/1. That is a decent enough start to the week!
I’m on Able dash in the 5:15 from a micro system im following on stallions for kempton as well as Isamol. Dont think there is much not to like about Ables chances, c&d 3 from 4 at this trip.