The 3.40 looks a cracker of a race but one I am struggling to work out if truth be told. You could make a case for many in here and I cannot see how anyone can be too dogmatic over any of the market principles, with every horse in the race having a question to answer – with the biggest unknown being the ground. Is it still Good to Soft, is it drying, is it sticky etc etc. If this was Good to Firm then you could well have strong opinion on the likes of Acapulco, Muthmir (although he does handle some cut,but looks best on firm) and the likes of Gold Dream.
There have been some shocks in this race over the years with winners going in at all prices. 14/19 had never won a G1, plenty had never won over the distance, Fillys have a good record, 2yos have won. There are no strong trends or anything at all to go on really.
As such, I am going to have a dart at some outsiders. Music Master and Profitable catch my eye at 33s, EW. These are not ‘tips’, more a stab in the dark and for me to have something on so I can enjoy the race. Pearl Secret could outrun his odds too. I think you could make a case for 12 or 13 in here and as such it is not a race to go to town on, in my opinion.
There is a lot of pace in this race, a lot. They will not be hanging around and it could fall apart for something tracking it. The American Horse could well blow them away, and if handling the ground, may well do. But, I dont want to be lumping on at that price to find out. The race could be run to suit Muthmir and it would be good for him to grab a G1. His trainer couldn’t be in any better form. Meccas Angel will like the ground and could be thereabouts. A real head-scratcher.
I would love to hear what you fancy.
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Elsewhere, Chancery lines up in the first race having won for Tip of The Day a few days ago. If he is in that same form he will go very close and I have had a little nibble at 7/1 for interest.
The red hot Haggas runs Talyani in the 4.55 and fits the profile for his handicap winners. His record with all runners was very good before this meeting and he has been on fire so far, a brilliant feat of training.
The 3.05 looks a cracker but is another puzzle that looks beyond me. Salateen could well get an uncontested lead and the front end , in general, has been the place to be this week. If Lee gets the fractions right he should be thereabouts. Tanzeel also runs, a previous winner for the blog, and this step up looks ideal given how he ran last time. Hopefully he runs a decent race.
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Good Luck
3 Responses
I am finding York very tough this year, particularly the handicaps and if it wasn’t for William Haggas i would be staring at loss. Good to soft at York isn’t good to soft ant any other track.
Today doesn’t look any easier either – Went modest e/w Strong Steps in the 4:55. Good 3rd in a valuable Goodwood handicap looks solid, i think this track will suit a bit better and trainer won race in 2013 – plenty of unexposed sorts in the race though – Your Haggas one looks the most interesting and i might regret not going in there.
I think i went loco in Acapulco from looking at the Nunthorpe so just fell back on a very modest each way ount on Music Master – finished 4th in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes for the second year running. He looked like he would make a big challenge 2f out before his effort flattened out well inside the final furlong. He has had only two attempts at the minimum trip but looks worth another go at it. The five year old is a very strong travelling horse and strongly run 5f could be ideal for him. I felt after Royal Ascot that he should be aimed at the Nunthorpe. Ideally he wants the ground to dry out further and the high draw is problematic i suspect middle to low will have an advantage even with pace on both side of the track!
3;05 – Richard Pankhurst could be lot better than listed class given how fancied he was for the 2000 Guineas – had a nibble at 15/2 – not sure about the ground. same with Tanzell but i tokk the 10s on this one as a saver
1:55 – I have found the winner of this race twice in the past three years but it looks tough this year:
Top Tug unlucky last time but looks one paced whatever distance he goes over
Penhill gets his ground but doesn’t look that well handicapped
Memorial Day is on the upgrade I think the distance will be OK not sure about the ground
Mistiroc is interesting each way and i had dabble at 20/1 hasn’t been suited by the single digit fields that he has mostly been running in this year and today’s big field and a better overall gallop should suit and ground should be ideal Interesting Pricewise selection
I might have a another modest each way play on What About Carlo 20/1- On a winning handicap mark.Last time out he seemed to return to form when saying on well to take 4th over 1m 2f at Newmarket. He shaped that day like a step in distance was worth a go although 1m 2f might still his best trip I think. The ground was plenty quick enough that day as he prefers a little ease in the ground which he will get today. if he stays can get into the places.
I don’t normally go each way which typifies the
Just saw your with me on Music Master 🙂
Yes good stuff John, looks another tough day! Well if you dont have strong opinion on those near the top of the market I would rather have a stab at a couple of big ones! Some beer money if one of mine places and not much damage done if they dont. Should be a fun afternoon. Good Luck