The 3.40 looks a cracker of a race but one I am struggling to work out if truth be told. You could make a case for many in here and I cannot see how anyone can be too dogmatic over any of the market principles, with every horse in the race having a question to answer – with the biggest unknown being the ground. Is it still Good to Soft, is it drying, is it sticky etc etc. If this was Good to Firm then you could well have strong opinion on the likes of Acapulco, Muthmir (although he does handle some cut,but looks best on firm) and the likes of Gold Dream.
There have been some shocks in this race over the years with winners going in at all prices. 14/19 had never won a G1, plenty had never won over the distance, Fillys have a good record, 2yos have won. There are no strong trends or anything at all to go on really.
As such, I am going to have a dart at some outsiders. Music Master and Profitable catch my eye at 33s, EW. These are not ‘tips’, more a stab in the dark and for me to have something on so I can enjoy the race. Pearl Secret could outrun his odds too. I think you could make a case for 12 or 13 in here and as such it is not a race to go to town on, in my opinion.
There is a lot of pace in this race, a lot. They will not be hanging around and it could fall apart for something tracking it. The American Horse could well blow them away, and if handling the ground, may well do. But, I dont want to be lumping on at that price to find out. The race could be run to suit Muthmir and it would be good for him to grab a G1. His trainer couldn’t be in any better form. Meccas Angel will like the ground and could be thereabouts. A real head-scratcher.
I would love to hear what you fancy.
Elsewhere, Chancery lines up in the first race having won for Tip of The Day a few days ago. If he is in that same form he will go very close and I have had a little nibble at 7/1 for interest.
The red hot Haggas runs Talyani in the 4.55 and fits the profile for his handicap winners. His record with all runners was very good before this meeting and he has been on fire so far, a brilliant feat of training.
The 3.05 looks a cracker but is another puzzle that looks beyond me. Salateen could well get an uncontested lead and the front end , in general, has been the place to be this week. If Lee gets the fractions right he should be thereabouts. Tanzeel also runs, a previous winner for the blog, and this step up looks ideal given how he ran last time. Hopefully he runs a decent race.