** A reminder that all posts are up by 10am at the latest. If I have a tip of the day or a race preview it will be up by 10, even if it is just a post to say something is on its way. If there is nothing by 10am it is safe to assume there is no bet that day **
Well a day of two halves for the tip of the day. The Hobbs chaser ran very well and while I wouldnt want to trust him jumping at pace over the last fence if chasing a race he had done enough by the last and the jockey allowed he to climb over in his own time. He fended off the challenge well and saw out the race in decent enough fashion.
Henry Morgan- Maybe that helps prove that he isnt a C5 horse afterall. I was hapy to take a chance and everything was in his favour for a decent run. I would like him to step up to 6f still.
So, +3.5 points profit on the day is not too bad at all and was pleasing to keep this mini run going.
Running Total: 35 bets / 10 wins / 18 places (inc wins) / +22.5 points
According To Sarah – 1 point win 13/2 (PP) , 6/1 (SB) 5/1 general*
*as of 21.00, 20/08
I can’t believe this price, I just cannot believe it. This is a 4 horse race at best, and she should be half that in my opinion, unless I have missed something.
The way in…
Well Hobbs is hitting some form but he doesn’t run many handicappers here. Since 2009 he is 8/37, 13 places +13 points with handicappers here. Solid enough.
When teaming up with the main man he is 6/14, 8 places, +16 points in handicaps at the track.
In handicap chases here Hobbs/Johnson are 3/5 since 2010. Not bad.
In truth those stats are enough for me and arguably the form of the horse doesn’t matter so much, but as it happens she has the best chance in the race for me, at the prices.
Well this is her 8th chase start, with 1 win to her name. Only aged 7 this is her 3rd start after a lengthy enough break and she looks to be coming to the boil. On all known form 20f is her trip and the 3f extra she has raced over the last two runs is just too far. She was running well LTO and took up the lead before her stamina gave out. If she is going to add another chase win to her record it should be over this trip. Class is fine, and she has won in a big field – indicating that she is not intimidated. Her jumping has also been sound to date so there should be no worries there.
All in, 13/2 is a silly price and I expect a big run. Everything, trainer form, trainer form at track, TTJ combo at track, and the horse having 3rd run after break, unexposed, dropping back to winning trip, indicate a big run. She is top weight because she is the best horse in the race and she should demonstrate that, at least jumping the last. (bar accidents)
Well it will become clear as the year progresses that handicap chases are my favourite race type and if I could only bet in one it would be these. I will go into my approach at a later date but safe to say it is easier than in other race types to see the performance pattern/profile of exposed handicap chasers. You then just need to judge the unexposed ones and work out the best bet. Anyway, a lot of these are getting very old and dont win very often at all. I was happy putting a cross through 8 of these and if one of them wins it will be one of those things.
Waddington Hero, Etania, and Shropshire Lad are the ones to focus on. I say Shropshire lad because he is very unexposed and could be anything- most likely not very good. He is a bit too unexposed as a chaser in a race like this but clearly he could improve any amount and put up a good show. I don’t like backing those types though.
Waddington Hero looks to like Ffos Las – and that is never a good thing. Form there is very hard to read from my experience and the depth to races is questionable. He won two weak chases to my eye, a C5 and then a C4 Novice Handicap Chase. They are not great race types albeit the monkey that chased him home, Zama Zama, did then have two going days. He likes a break so that is no problem and is clearly going the right way. But, I am happy to take that type of fav on. He is up in the weights as well, and will need to improve again. He could well do but there are reasons to take him on.
Etania is progressive too but comes here after a longer than ideal break for me and she needs every yard of 2m5+ , being 0/8, 2 places below. She could get outpaced here near the end, and the trainer is only 3/39 at the track since 2009 – not really a ‘target’ track. But, she is going the right way and will be thereabouts.
Peter Bowen’s horses usually catch the eye but he is 0/13, 2 places chasing and I cant back that type. He is also only 1/19 with his handicap chasers here since 2010.
I praise the connections of Cool Bob – he is now 0/54, 7 places in his career and must just be viewed like a family pet. Hopefully they find a race for him at some point but clearly it is easy enough to put a cross through horses with profiles like that (there are a few in here) and if he wins, well, that is racing for you!
All in all I think we have an overpriced horse who looks sure to give us a run for our money. Hopefully master Hobbs can do it two days in a row for us.
The only spanner in the works could be the weather. Like a few of these all form is on Good or better ground, which it is at the time of writing. There are meant to be showers around and if it goes on the soft side I do not know how she will run – she hasn’t had many goes on it. Let’s hope Hobbs pulls her out if conditions deteriorate.
I will be back in the morning with more, including a look at York. Check this post again tomorrow. (august trainers etc) For now I need to get my eyes away from the lap top!
Fergal O’Brien is 3/7, 4 places with handicap hurdlers at Bangor. Clearly he doesn’t run many here but they go well when he does. He is also 2/4, 3 places with those runners when teaming up with Paddy Brennan. KING MURO is the horse in the 3.20. He was close to being a selection but this is a poor novices handicap hurdle and they all have something to prove. The horse does pull a bit and could throw away his chance but is he repeats his last run that is the best form shown to date on a race track. I have had a nibble at 7/2.
Easterby and Gibbons are 27/125, 57 places +43 SP when teaming up in Wolverhampton handicaps in recent years – 6/13, 8 places in the last year. I could resist a small EW bet on Bosham at 33/1 (bet365). He keeps the blinkers on for a second time and the soft ground was against him last time. He has come a long way down the weights – mainly due to poor form- but there has been the odd OK run. He has only raced on an AW surface once, Kempton, and he won. After a couple of years maybe this surface will rejuvenate him. There are some big priced winners in those stats and in C5/6, over 6f, trainer/jock are 4/16, 7 places. He may run appallingly but I had to pay to find out.
4.40 Sand – Mustaqquil
5.50 Sand – Lemoncetta