Tip of the Day: 20/08/15 + York Notes

Well a decent enough day for the ‘unofficial’ bets on the blog, mentioned in dispatches. Spirit Raiser hacked up for James Fanshawe (5/1>7/2) for that micro system and Tony Martin had a decent winner at York (7/1) – Running at Galway before looks to be a clear prep for his runners with a chance here. They both made sure I had a decent enough day, although the blog was officially -3 points (+ -1 and free bet SB) 

The big race preview is best forgotten due to the draw and I have learnt something there for the future when the rain comes. The middle of the track looks like the place to be and it will be interesting how it rides today. Incidentally there will be no big race previews at York today – but there are some brief thoughts below. 

Free Zone ran a cracker and out ran his odds of 7/1. I was happy with the bet and with a bit less rain I think he would have gone even closer. I expected it to be on the soft side but it didnt stop and must have been heavy come race time. He was paddling a bit at the finish as his stamina just ran out. He was done by the main danger and my original selection but given how FZ ran, and his odds, I am happy enough with the bet. 

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Running Total (trial) : 33 bets / 9 wins / 17 places (inc wins) / +19 points 

Blog Profits since November 2014 (first big race preview) 

Race Previews: +73 points 

Tip of Day: +19 points 

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Onto today where I have two bets. Given there are no bet days when there are two I fancy that I can’t split I may as well put them both up.. 

 

3.30 Stratford

No Likey – 1 point win – 9/2 (PP,Lad) 4/1 general 

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8.10 Hamilton 

Henry Morgan – 1 point win – 9/2 (SkyB,BV,PP,Lad,WH) 

(prices as of 09.08)

You can of course use your SkyBet Free Bet on one of them (if you have one)*

Incidentally SkyBet have, as of this morning, slapped a restriction on my account, but appear to still be letting me have at least £10 on some horses. I will leave that account alone for a while now and will maybe throw some money at the casino,although that tactic may be a bit late now!! 

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No Likey…

Hobbs does well with handicap chasers here since 2010 – 42 bets / 10 wins / 20 places / +21 SP. When teaming up with Tom O’Brien in handicap chases he is 9 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / +10 SP. 

This horse appears to be getting the hand of it over fences, this his 11th chase start. He has been hit and miss at times but his two runs at Worcester caught the eye and if he repeats either he will be right in the mix. His last run is best ignored possibly on too soft ground but definitely against horses much better than him, that being a C2. At Worcester, in this class, he found one too good each time but looks to have a great attitude and keeps finding for pressure.Each time he beat the third horse by miles, which is always a good sign. He ran ok here on his last visit before emptying out after the lass, possibly still needing the run. He races prominently and his jumping is getting better. If he jumps fine and runs like he did at Worcester he should give us a good run for our money. 

The opposition look pretty poor with Domaltine the main danger. He is still to win a handicap chase and comes here after a slightly longer break than I would want to see. However, he ran last time out and a repeat of that will see him do well. I think he will need to improve on that, which is not guaranteed. Stephen Hero was miles behind the selection at Worcester and I see no obvious reason for that to be overturned. Alwaystheoptimist is 0/7, 0 places from OR121+ and at the age of 12 he needs to do something he hasn’t yet managed. Clearly in form and will run his race but if the top two run their races they should have more in hand. I am more than happy to take on the rest. 

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Henry Morgan…

Partly thanks to this horse the trainer is now 6/14, 10 places with handicappers at the track. 

The horse won last time over CD and earlier on in the season I thought he needed 6f but he appears to have got the hang of this trip and keeps getting up late. That has worked once, and he has just missed out twice. He will run his race again here and with a couple of non runners looks like he will be able to track the fav. I expect him to battle all the way up the hill and to the line. That is all I can ask and I think that may be good enough. Class 5 is the question but he is a lightly raced 8yo who could still be open to improvement. He never wins by far which means he can never be put up too high.

Also an excuse can be made for all his C5 runs to date, meaning he has yet to prove he cannot compete at this level. 4 of those runs came after lengthy breaks when he probably needed the run, another was over 7f at 20/1. He did run in these conditions once but that was early on in his career. He also has the highest speed rating in the race. 

I think we will get another good run for our money, he may find one too good but I am happy to take a chance at those odds, which feel a tad too big for me, for a horse that likes this track and is proven on it.

The 10yo Typhos looks to be the main danger. He runs at the track for the first time so there is a question there. He has ran well at the likes of Leicester so it should be ok, but you never know. He is also 10 and is 0/7, 1 place at that age. That place was a decent run last time out but he isn’t improving and the hope is that a repeat of that run is good enough. It may well be but with career stats of 7/61, + his age, I was happy to take him on with some younger legs, and with a horse only having his 19th start. 

Busy Bimbo is a C6 horse on all known form and the others don’t like winning at the moment, and in general. I am happy to take them on. Chookies Las will put it all together again at some point but is 1/21 and is 0/6, 2 places at track. She doesn’t look like she is about to win. 

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AUGUST TRAINERS (both 14/1 or under) 

5.30 Ling – Suitsus 

6.30 Ling – Captain Ryan 

Makin has been a bit cold in what is usually a hot month so slight caution advised and I will be interested to see how they run. Suitsus appears to be drifting but I have had a nibble on Captain Ryan. 

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YORK DAY 2 

Micro Angles…

3.05  – Mange All (9/1 or under) 

3.05 – Any O’Meara runner that goes off 8/1 or under. He does have bigger priced winners but they are hard to find, if there is market support they usually run their race here – although Big Thunder was poor yesterday. 

Also in this race Extremity is interesting at a price – Hugo Palmer has a great record here with Handicappers in his shortish career to date and although a small sample are worth noting. He gets blinkers for the first time and is drawn out in the next county but could be dropped in and run a decent enough race. No doubt this has been the target. He could be too keen after this break but I couldn’t resist something on at 20/1. 

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Good Luck with your bets, as always I like to hear what you are backing and why… 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Morning Josh…”unofficial” or not yesterday was a great post for spotting those left of field horses so well done but certainly a strange day …especially the defeat of Golden Horn…interesting what Frankie said after the race that the horse could not produce the usual turn of foot because of the ground..he was honest enough to say this just after the race so just shows how important going is in assessing a horses’s chance..gd luck for today

    1. Cheers John – yes I try and provide interesting info and ways in, even if I dont always ‘tip them’ – although more often than not I usually have something on most horses I mention.

      Couldn’t agree more – what was also interesting was the fact he was keen – due in part to having longer off than ideal given he missed a big race LTO. He was pulling a bit, off a strong pace, and with the ground issue as you mention, that told come the end. That is why we love the sport though! I think if he had settled better his class may have got him through but he just ran out of energy, and bumped into a progressive and classy filly.
      I do like the trainer based ‘micro angle’ approach to these big meetings. Worked well at Cheltenham, not so good Goodwood, and doing well again here.

  2. Great blog Josh and i really like the stats approach to betting. it is the way to go!

    I have backed the two Hobbs handicap chasers at Stratford – No Likey & Hes A Bully (4:40)

    York

    I am heading off to York now.

    Looks like were on the same journey there in terms of selections today.

    2:30

    Ashadihan – K Ryan

    Besharah – W Haggas

    3:05 – Cant resist Extremity myself, as you say drawn out on the A64 but i think Palmer who will develop a good record at the track and is trainer i want on my side – good run over C&D last year. Mange Al also for me for the angle – Might want further but his 2nd behind The Corsican and just in front of Arab Dawn last year is the best form in the race for me. Of the O’Meara 8 the most likely looks to be Hes No Saint with Tudhope up!

    On Big Thunder the ground went against him i think he wanted the rain to stay away

    Couple of interest bets later in the card:

    3:45 – I will have interest bets on the French filly Sea Calisi and I think Miss Marjorie looks a shade over priced – i think this looks a really good race to watch!

    4;20 – Bright Approach – Couldn’t resist the 10/1 with ground coming right for her. Might bomb out but i can take a chance the price,

    Hamilton

    7:10 – One of my tracker horses. I am giving one final chance to Bogardus– Trainer Patrick Holmes is 2-8 in the past 14 days and has a good record at the track in the past 5 seasons 6-26 +19.50. The horses to prove he stays this far at a stiff track like Hamilton but Joe Fanning looks a good booking for the front runner and i will trust the trainer here – Corals are 14/1 at the time of writing so modest each way bet for me this time.

    1. Thanks JohnB, superb comment and selections/reasoning, love reading comments like this. I have had a dart at the Kevin Ryan runner as well, I will now go and look at the other Hobbs Chasers, and the Holmes stats at Hamilton did catch my eye last night so will go back and look at that race too!
      Have a great day and good luck.

  3. Cheers Josh and when I get a chance I will provide more daily comments

    I don’t want to sound like a cheerleader for the blog – but you are taking punters on an exciting betting journey which will help them to improve their knowledge of the sport and betting which is always a good thing! Doesn’t matter how long you have been on betting on horse racing your always learning in this game and your approach helps the novice and experienced alike.

    P.S I am sure i will disagree with your selections on some days, haha 🙂

    1. Thanks…yes well I am always learning, you never stop. That draw bias on soft ground being an example at York – I was surprised that no high drawn horse got into it, given plenty of pace high and quite a few in form. I like being open, honest and blunt, and explaining my thinking. Blogging helps my own process as well and has improved my results.

      I like friendly disagreement, especially when a decent reason is given! it is a game of opinions and sometimes I will have missed something or may not have thought about another rival in the right way etc.

      I look forward to it!

  4. Really like SPANGLED future black type in the making. I think if Tasleet gets a clear run he has an outstanding chance. Mange all E/W backed @ 8’s more to come from him i expect.

    1. Cheers Philip…was dreading a last fence blunder as he steadied into that but won well enough in end. Takes pressure off the last one and profit guaranteed.

  5. No Likey – Lovely winner nice price £45 profit Daft £10 single and £8 double on the next one – might be a flight to Tenerife if it wins – Seriously Josh
    Keep em comin!!!!!

  6. Never mind Josh – Might smash them lovely Paddy Power people tomorrow – Fantastic tipping – Keep em Comin !!!!

    1. Yes, very poor, and expected a much better show – may have helped prove he isnt a C5 animal though. Still, would take 3.5 points each day! 🙂 Tomorrow is another day.

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