Tip of the Day 04/08/15 + Race Preview

After much head scratching I am hoping that Ralph Beckett has a good day as we are going with two of his. I have also had a look at the 7.35 Ripon and that will be a ‘race preview’ with the results recorded as such. 

First up, Tip of The Day…

4.30 Salisbury 

Syrdarya 6/1 (general) 1 point win 

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7.20 Chelms 

Inexorable Tide 11/2 (general) 1 point win (was 6s) 

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Syrdarya…Beckett is 6/15, 9 places with his handicappers at the track in the last 365 days and clearly likes to target horses here. He is also 2/10, 7 places with his handicap debutants here so they normally run their race. The trainer is also in form in the last 14 days, 6/27. 

The horse..she is clearly unexposed, this being her fourth start and her second at this trip. Despite being a 4 runner race lto it was decent enough with the horse behind since coming out and winning. She has likes to lead and it is possible that Dobbs tries to steal this from the front, at least I hope he does anyway. 

While there are a few inform types in here, and it looks open on paper, those stats combined, and the likely pace set up, combined with 6s, were enough for me to have a stab. 

Frenzified is clearly a danger but horses behind in that last race are since 0/3, 0 places, so the level of form is questionable. She is also effectively 7lbs higher as well so will need to step forward again, which of course she may do, being from this superb yard. Entity looks to have won a poor maiden LTO, 0/5, 0 places the horses to have run since. She was tried over 12f in a handicap before that, the win being when dropped down to 10f again. So, there are questions to answer there. Graceland looks exposed compared to some of these and i would like to think will need to improve again, and that doesnt look guaranteed. Soul Searcher is in form but again needs to step up from C5 level, and is another more exposed runner here.  Victoria Pollard needs to leave some disappointing efforts behind.  

All in all I expect Ralph has left a bit to work on with this filly and she will step up on her maidens, which have at least shown some level of ability. She could have a fair bit in hand and I expect a bold show. Hopefully it is good enough. 

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Inexorable Tide…

Pace was the initial way in here. He has the best speed figure to date and is an out and out front runner, who got a superb ride from SDS last time out. The break doesn’t concern me as he was off a similar time before her last run and having heard Beckett speak about other horses before he doesn’t like to rush them, and this looks like a horse who he clearly thinks needs gaps between his races. So, he has track form over CD, is the only out and out front runner on what they have done to date, and is still open to improvement, with an impressive speed figure. Having SDS on would have been the icing but Martin Lane has a decent record at the track (4/18) considering he wont be riding the best horses in each race, and he should give it a good go. 

The horses attitude was superb last time and he kept finding and was pulling away again. It wasn’t a slowly run race to the eye either, he had to work hard to get to the front and didnt look to get a breather in. Whatsmore the form of that race couldn’t have worked out any better with both horses in behind winning since. Talyani, who was third for Haggas, has since bolted up twice, and Mount Tahan who was 2nd has also won a class 3 race. So, there are plenty of positives there. Clearly on ratings he is inferior but he gets a lot of weight here with the allowance and is open to improvement. 

Finally, he is a qualifier for my ’90 day system’ for Beckett, his stats being 9/24, 12 places with such runners this year. 

The opposition…this is where we may come unstuck as there is a potentially very very smart horse in here. Mitraad is being backed as if he only has to turn up, which may be true. He is clearly well regarded and bolted up last time, and is clearly going the right way. But, there are reasons to take him on, and reasons why that price seems short enough. Firstly this is his second start after a very lengthy break, coming only 25 days after that win, where he clearly put in a lot of effort. There is a chance he could bounce. Then there is the track. His breeding suggests this type of surface should be fine, and Haggas wouldn’t send him here if he didnt think he would handle it. But, he may not like it, and he may not appreciate the kick back if getting behind horses. This is also a new experience. No long straights of Newmarket here. Lots of turns and again, that is something he needs to prove. 

Now, he may well prove all of those. I think the selection will have the rest of the field beat, but this horse could be the one to sweep past in the final furlong or so. I may have a forecast as such for fun, to hopefully ensure some kind of return. He could flop and if so, we will hopefully pick up the pieces. He could also run his race but if the jockey can get the fractions right from the front it may not matter, if he can quicken up at the right point he could steal a couple of lengths. So, reasons to be hopeful. 

Hakka is another unexposed one in here. Stoute has yet to have a place from his 4 runners at the track, and the jockey is also 0/8, 0 places on his rides so far. This horse also has a bit to prove and needs to improve as well,which is possible, but still, there are questions there. The rest look rather exposed and out of form, many of them needing to step up some way. I would like to think one of the top 3 is winning this on all known form to date. 

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Race Preview 

7.35 Ripon 

Rural Celebration 13/2 (bet365) 6/1 general – 1 point win 

Pearl Acclaim 11/1 (bet365) 10/1 general – 1/2 point win

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Firstly.. Pearl Acclaim…makes a quick reappearance after getting no run last time with the jockey sitting helpless it seemed for quite some time. Coming out so quickly is interesting and would suggest the horse is still in form and they just didnt get the luck last time (rather than some elaborate plot whereby he is being aimed at something) My confidence is not at full strength as the same thing could happen again whereby he gets stuck behind a wall of horses, his speed figure is far inferior to a lot of these (it looks a better race than lto) and he looks like he needs good to firm. I expect the track to dry out by race time, but there is a doubt there. But, based on that last run I had to have something on, and hopefully he doesn’t become a cliff horse! 

Rural Celebration comes from the trainer jockey combo who are 8/16, 9 places with handicappers at the track in the last 365 days and 23/77, 36 places in total. They had two winners yesterday and I am kicking myself for not focusing more in on those stats – i saw 3 runners and thought I would end up picking the wrong one! This is their only runner here today, and backing their runners blind is still very profitable here- +30 points in the last year alone. This horse is unexposed and won well enough last time out. He does like juice so we dont want it to dry out too much for him! He will need to step up again but he has the profile to do do, and is twice a CD winner. He tracks the pace or can lead, and with quite a few hold up types drawn higher, track position should not be an issue, there should be no excuses. 

The other two possible winners for me were Seve and Blithe Spirit. The latter is a chester specialist and is 0/5, 1 place on straight tracks. He will provide the pace but I am not confident he will stay there. He is also 0/5, 0 places when rated OR91+, and won last time haveing dropped 4lbs, and has now gone back up. A big run would be no shock for a trainer in form but i was happy to take him on, with a couple of questions to answer – he is still open to improvement though. Seve is a ‘could be anything horse’ but will need to step up from 3yo handicaps against battle hardened warriors here. He will need to step up but I went with the more experienced rival, and hopefully that pays near the end. But, a big run from him will clearly be no shock. 

The rest are worth taking on. Silvanus is 0/7, 1 place when OR91+ and isnt getting any younger, but he is in form at least. Noble Storm is just a bit out of form and a bit in and out. If he puts it all together he could win this, but just guessing with him at the moment and until a big market move perhaps left alone. Sea The Sun is frustrating and has yet to win under 6f, 0/7 over 5+5.5f. He doesn’t like winning and is a bit too hard to predict at the moment, but another if putting it all together who would go well, being a previous C2 winner. Singeur doesn’t like winning – 3/53 in handicaps (exc nurseries) and is so hard to predict. He will get a strong pace here and is in form, but that form has been in C4, and he faces stronger oppo here. He is a CD winner but i am always comfortable taking on horses with such a win SR and if he wins today so be it. Lexington Place only ever wins when backed it would appear, 0/15, 3 places priced over 4/1. If backed into 4/1 or below then that could spell danger (7/10) but he was well behind the main selection LTO, and I see no reason why that would be overturned if both run their races. Inxile is 1/16 in handicaps and is hard to catch right, he isnt getting any younger either. Even Stevens is 2/29 in flat handicaps and is out of form. Not for me. 

So, hopefully two horses who should give us a decent run for our money. We came out of Goodwood with +11 points in the end and can hopefully build on that here. 

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August Trainers…

Makin’s ran a shocker yesterday ( i backed it EW) and he runs Suitsus in the 2.30 Salisbury today. Ideally will be 14/1 or below to qualifier, although he has had a big priced winner, and he does have bits and pieces of form in what looks like a poor race. I will probably have a small EW bet. 

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Right, that will do for today. Good Luck if you follow me in, and with any other bets you have today.