Thanks to Ant for emailing me and asking whether I had any micro angles etc for August. I do like looking to see if there are trainers that tend to peak in a certain month with their handicappers. Clearly I am not in the habit of doing this yet so do keep reminding me!
I am looking for trainers that generally do well with handicappers around 14/1 or under and who have a general level of consistency since 2010. I want a decent win strike rate 25% + and around a 50% win and place SR, to allow for EW betting. Their performance in August must far outweigh their performance during all other months combined. Here I am looking at win strike rate, place strike rate, profit and A/E – seeing whether their horses perform consistently above market expectation.
I have found four such trainers… C Dore, J Gosden, P Makin, C Wall (also AW)
There is one qualifier today for Makin that I will highlight below.
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C R Dore
- FLAT (turf) Handicaps Only
- August Only
- 14/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 33 | 11 | 33.33 | 47.95 | 17 | 51.52 | 53.77 | 162.95 | 16.98 | 2.36 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 16.15 | 1615 | 2.76 | 14.29 |
| 2013 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 5.77 | 144.21 | -0.58 | 2.94 |
| 2012 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 14 | 3 | 75 | 15.96 | 399.11 | 4.81 | 4.17 |
| 2011 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 3.45 | 6 | 60 | 3.96 | 39.56 | 7.54 | 2.01 |
| 2010 | 13 | 3 | 23.08 | 12.5 | 6 | 46.15 | 12.93 | 99.48 | 3.45 | 1.75 |
His record in all other months reads… 105 bets / 7 wins / 30 places / 6.67% win SR / 28% place SR / -50.87 SP
A nice little micro angle with not too many bets but he usually finds a winner or two, and if he does have a bad year this season it won’t cost us too much.
He has had 4 runners priced 16/1, 3 of them have placed. So, don’t automatically be put off by the bigger odds. He is 0/5, 0 places above 16/1 so far.
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J. Gosden
- FLAT (turf) Handicaps Only
- August Only
- 14/1 or under
- AGE 3 or 4 only
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 89 | 27 | 30.34 | 57.01 | 37 | 41.57 | 63.53 | 71.39 | 0.11 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 15 | 6 | 40 | 19.38 | 6 | 40 | 22.63 | 150.84 | 0.51 | 1.71 |
| 2013 | 17 | 8 | 47.06 | 7.38 | 10 | 58.82 | 8.3 | 48.82 | 3.08 | 1.36 |
| 2012 | 18 | 1 | 5.56 | -11.5 | 5 | 27.78 | -11.37 | -63.15 | -5.78 | 0.34 |
| 2011 | 21 | 4 | 19.05 | 12.5 | 7 | 33.33 | 13.74 | 65.44 | -2.52 | 1.04 |
| 2010 | 17 | 8 | 47.06 | 30.25 | 9 | 52.94 | 31.23 | 183.72 | 5.83 | 2.64 |
He has only had 11 runners outside of those aged 3 or 4, and they are 1/11, 2 places. His 2yo’s and those aged 5+ are worth keeping an eye on.
Outside of August: 488 bets / 90 wins / 199 places / 18% win SR / 40% place SR / -33 SP
He has had one bad year in the last 5 which can happen with any yard. However his handicappers usually peak and run their best races during this month. His place SR is similar in other months (and ideally would be a bit higher for august) , but they do not win as much, performing 5% under what the market (based on SP) expects them to. During August they perform 40% above what the market suggests they should.
Gosden has only had 2 runners go off over 14/1, 1 did place.
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P. Makin
- FLAT (turf) Handicaps Only
- August Only
- 14/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 53 | 17 | 32.08 | 49.13 | 29 | 54.72 | 58.71 | 110.77 | 19.57 | 1.54 |
| 2014 | 19 | 8 | 42.11 | 27.88 | 12 | 63.16 | 34.93 | 183.86 | 6.42 | 1.65 |
| 2013 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 4.25 | 5 | 62.5 | 4.61 | 57.68 | 3.83 | 1.72 |
| 2012 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 19 | 4 | 66.67 | 20.32 | 338.71 | 6.41 | 3.19 |
| 2011 | 12 | 2 | 16.67 | 0.5 | 5 | 41.67 | 0.9 | 7.47 | 0.22 | 0.94 |
| 2010 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 37.5 | -2.06 | -25.75 | 2.69 | 0.7 |
I believe this is Makin’s last season as a trainer before retiring so let’s hope he goes out with a bang in what is his best month by far.
All other months with his flat handicappers: 180 bets / 21 wins / 63 places / 11.5% win SR / 35% place SR / -48 SP
He has had 7 runners above 14/1…1 won, 1 placed so 1/7, 2 places. That winner was massive odds, around 30/1. So, he may have another if you can pick the right one.
QUALIFIER… 6.30 Windsor SPIDER LILY
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C. Wall
- FLAT (turf) + ALL-WEATHER Handicaps
- August Only
- 14/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 110 | 31 | 28.18 | 55.97 | 60 | 54.55 | 73.17 | 66.52 | 33.49 | 1.39 |
| 2015 | 4 | 3 | 75 | 10 | 3 | 75 | 10.5 | 262.61 | 1.89 | 3.7 |
| 2014 | 21 | 9 | 42.86 | 19.25 | 13 | 61.9 | 24.83 | 118.25 | 5.78 | 1.84 |
| 2013 | 18 | 5 | 27.78 | 7.38 | 10 | 55.56 | 8.87 | 49.27 | 9.04 | 1.17 |
| 2012 | 19 | 3 | 15.79 | 4 | 9 | 47.37 | 8 | 42.09 | 3.18 | 0.89 |
| 2011 | 29 | 6 | 20.69 | 7.38 | 16 | 55.17 | 10.16 | 35.02 | 11.27 | 1.12 |
| 2010 | 19 | 5 | 26.32 | 7.96 | 9 | 47.37 | 10.81 | 56.92 | 2.34 | 1.38 |
Outside of August… 519 bets / 91 wins / 215 places / 17% win SR / 41% place SR / -10 SP
Chris does slightly better with his AW horses but they are all profitable to follow and he appears to have been in top form for weeks now. He had a treble on the first day of the month so hopefully we haven’t missed the boat. Given the form he has been in he could go one of two ways…a lot of his horses could be handicapped to their limits and struggle now, or he is about to have the best August he has ever had!
He is 0/6, 0 places with horses priced over 14/1 SP
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As always use this information as you please. Back them blind, use the stats to help with your own form analysis, or ignore them!
I will use the info as a guide for Tip of The Day and will look at posting qualifiers in those posts etc where possible. I would always advise taking BOG prices if you can and for example for C Wall you would have won about +18 points more taking earlier prices than BFSP since 2010.
Good Luck
Josh
P.S As ever with such posts my thanks go to the team behind HorseRaceBase.com – a superb piece of kit if you like building systems/researching angles etc (+ a lot more)
9 Responses
Another great posting josh , your micro angles a great read keep up the hard work and thank you.
My pleasure Steve, thanks for reading, and commenting. As you know I like having a varied attack in this game and these angles usually help identify a winner to two.
Where have you got C Dore from ?
I cannot find him on my HRB
Norman
C R Dore ..that’s who it is
that’s one of the few problems with HRB…imput has to be perfect when checking the database especially with Trainers names….with many having extra christian names doing the search facility can be a nightmare sometimes
P J Makin
C F Wall
J H M Gosden
Oh to be plain John Smith !!
Great thanks Josh. I like these monthly angles etc. I believe they do pay off as well as your work for producing them.
hi josh,im another guy who likes your angles into racing and trying to keep ahead of the bookie
Don’t know how you dig these obcure facts from but equally impressive as always, keep up the good work Josh.