Yesterday was a disaster on many fronts, not least for this blog. I have had worse days and we only ‘loaned’ 3.5 points back to the bookies but it was quite poor all round. The two Beckett horses drifted, and drifted alarmingly on Betfair – never a good sign with his yard (anecdotal) and they both ran as such. The second selection just didnt run his race and I am not sure if there was a problem as he stopped pretty quickly, maybe he bled. Anyway, it is never foolish to take on one unexposed horse near the top of the market if you have good reason, but taking on two well fancied runners, unexposed and from powerful yards, was probably foolish at best and is something for me to dwell on moving forwards.
Rural Celebration gave us a run for our money at least and all credit to Silvanus and connections. 10yo, top weight, and winning from a career high mark in handicaps. Brilliant and great to see. Pearl Acclaim was poor and I will wait until he gets good to firm, and in a weaker race maybe, before considering backing again – but I am convinced he has another race in him this season.
24 bets / 5 wins / 11 places (inc wins) / +10 points
All told Tip of the Day and I could do with a winner…
Vasoni 1 point win 8/1 (Boylesports/PP/Coral/WH)
The way in…
The trainer is 5/13, 7 places with his handicappers here since 2009 and is 4/8, 5 places when teaming up with this jockey here. This is their only handicapper running here today, so no chance of me picking the wrong one!
Well she loves Sligo and is 3/6 at the track and 2/2 over CD. She needs soft ground and gets that here. She also needs a very strong pace for her hold up style, and it looks like she will get it – that was the final tick in the box for me. I can count 5 horses in here who like to lead, have led recently, or really like to push the pace. The hope is that they all take each other on and fade near the end. The selection may look detached at a time, or remote, but she usually stays on really well and in these conditions should get some excitement at least. Bar the last run at Galway she has generally been in good form, including winning here in this class a couple of runs ago. She has also beat a few of these here before and has won from this mark.
She also gets the nod because there are questions over the others. Bainne has won this race before for a previous trainer but on better ground. I am yet to be convinced by her stamina on this type of ground. She has to prove she truly stays on soft and therefore I think worth taking on. Clearly if she does stay she is expected to run well. Chillie Billie has been beaten by the selection here before, and they can take it in turns it would appear, however he is 0/5 on soft and 0/10 on soft or heavy. I think he needs a sounder surface and has an almighty weight to carry in this ground. (if the going description is accurate!) Lord carelton is unexposed but hasnt done a great deal in maidens and needs to step up – money for him would make him of more interest. Shes a Pistol is also unexposed, with the ground an unknown, and again money would make her of more concern. The rest are a mixed bunch with a bit to prove, including recent form. Hurricane Twister is a mud lover, all wins on Heavy (3/5, 4 places) and has form over further, this may happen too quickly for him and hasn’t raced here before.
All in all 8s is a decent price. I do hope she is backed, as she is 0/26, 5 places above 6/1, so we may know our fete before the off – however she rarely runs a bad race here, has her ideal conditions to my eye, and has the pace set up to suit (on paper at least).
-Andrew Balding has a solid record at Chepstow, a bit like Beckett, with handicappers 20/69, 34 places. He runs Dandy here in 4.30, was 11/2, being backed into 7/2 I think. He is now short enough for a horse who runs his best races when able to lead or sit handy. There are quite a few front runners in this which just put me off (as well as missing the price). Anything 4s and above may be worth an interest bet, and back here where he has won, he should go well. Trainer/Jockey are also 5/13, 7 places in last 30 days.
-Beckett does run Hawkin (3.30) at Chepstow who tries to improve the trainer’s impressive stats here. But, he is a 10 race maiden and there are questions to answer. He is adept at picking poor quality races here for his horses that have been struggling to win, so a big run would be no shock and it isnt a great race. But, I couldnt confidently tip or back that type of horse, in that type of race.
Chris Wall (14/1 or under)
-3.40 Pont – Qanan
-4.20 Brighton – Flight Fight
-7.40 Kempton – Cloud Seven
8.40 Kempton – Windy City
Wall/Durcan are 9/34, 9 places at Kempton since 09 so that makes Cloud Seven of more interest
Likewise when teaming up with Baker he is 12/37, 21 places at the track, making Windy City of more interest also.
For what it is worth I thought Windy City was of most interest at the odds, around 5/1. My concerns were the break of 70 days (has won after 60 before in a handicap so fitness may be fine) and also fact he is stepping up in grade, which is an unknown. He also has a well fancied, unexposed Fanshawe handicap debutant to contend with. But,he could get the run of the race in front and if fit has a chance of staying there. It will be interesting to see how the rest get on. Such is the yards hot streak, their form may not matter as much!
As always, good luck with your bets.