Yesterday was a disaster on many fronts, not least for this blog. I have had worse days and we only ‘loaned’ 3.5 points back to the bookies but it was quite poor all round. The two Beckett horses drifted, and drifted alarmingly on Betfair – never a good sign with his yard (anecdotal) and they both ran as such. The second selection just didnt run his race and I am not sure if there was a problem as he stopped pretty quickly, maybe he bled. Anyway, it is never foolish to take on one unexposed horse near the top of the market if you have good reason, but taking on two well fancied runners, unexposed and from powerful yards, was probably foolish at best and is something for me to dwell on moving forwards.
Rural Celebration gave us a run for our money at least and all credit to Silvanus and connections. 10yo, top weight, and winning from a career high mark in handicaps. Brilliant and great to see. Pearl Acclaim was poor and I will wait until he gets good to firm, and in a weaker race maybe, before considering backing again – but I am convinced he has another race in him this season.
Running Total…(trial)
24 bets / 5 wins / 11 places (inc wins) / +10 points
All told Tip of the Day and I could do with a winner…
6.30 Sligo
Vasoni 1 point win 8/1 (Boylesports/PP/Coral/WH)
The way in…
The trainer is 5/13, 7 places with his handicappers here since 2009 and is 4/8, 5 places when teaming up with this jockey here. This is their only handicapper running here today, so no chance of me picking the wrong one!
The horse…
Well she loves Sligo and is 3/6 at the track and 2/2 over CD. She needs soft ground and gets that here. She also needs a very strong pace for her hold up style, and it looks like she will get it – that was the final tick in the box for me. I can count 5 horses in here who like to lead, have led recently, or really like to push the pace. The hope is that they all take each other on and fade near the end. The selection may look detached at a time, or remote, but she usually stays on really well and in these conditions should get some excitement at least. Bar the last run at Galway she has generally been in good form, including winning here in this class a couple of runs ago. She has also beat a few of these here before and has won from this mark.
The opposition…
She also gets the nod because there are questions over the others. Bainne has won this race before for a previous trainer but on better ground. I am yet to be convinced by her stamina on this type of ground. She has to prove she truly stays on soft and therefore I think worth taking on. Clearly if she does stay she is expected to run well. Chillie Billie has been beaten by the selection here before, and they can take it in turns it would appear, however he is 0/5 on soft and 0/10 on soft or heavy. I think he needs a sounder surface and has an almighty weight to carry in this ground. (if the going description is accurate!) Lord carelton is unexposed but hasnt done a great deal in maidens and needs to step up – money for him would make him of more interest. Shes a Pistol is also unexposed, with the ground an unknown, and again money would make her of more concern. The rest are a mixed bunch with a bit to prove, including recent form. Hurricane Twister is a mud lover, all wins on Heavy (3/5, 4 places) and has form over further, this may happen too quickly for him and hasn’t raced here before.
All in all 8s is a decent price. I do hope she is backed, as she is 0/26, 5 places above 6/1, so we may know our fete before the off – however she rarely runs a bad race here, has her ideal conditions to my eye, and has the pace set up to suit (on paper at least).
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The shortlist…
-Andrew Balding has a solid record at Chepstow, a bit like Beckett, with handicappers 20/69, 34 places. He runs Dandy here in 4.30, was 11/2, being backed into 7/2 I think. He is now short enough for a horse who runs his best races when able to lead or sit handy. There are quite a few front runners in this which just put me off (as well as missing the price). Anything 4s and above may be worth an interest bet, and back here where he has won, he should go well. Trainer/Jockey are also 5/13, 7 places in last 30 days.
-Beckett does run Hawkin (3.30) at Chepstow who tries to improve the trainer’s impressive stats here. But, he is a 10 race maiden and there are questions to answer. He is adept at picking poor quality races here for his horses that have been struggling to win, so a big run would be no shock and it isnt a great race. But, I couldnt confidently tip or back that type of horse, in that type of race.
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August Trainers
Chris Wall (14/1 or under)
-3.40 Pont – Qanan
-4.20 Brighton – Flight Fight
-7.40 Kempton – Cloud Seven
8.40 Kempton – Windy City
Wall/Durcan are 9/34, 9 places at Kempton since 09 so that makes Cloud Seven of more interest
Likewise when teaming up with Baker he is 12/37, 21 places at the track, making Windy City of more interest also.
For what it is worth I thought Windy City was of most interest at the odds, around 5/1. My concerns were the break of 70 days (has won after 60 before in a handicap so fitness may be fine) and also fact he is stepping up in grade, which is an unknown. He also has a well fancied, unexposed Fanshawe handicap debutant to contend with. But,he could get the run of the race in front and if fit has a chance of staying there. It will be interesting to see how the rest get on. Such is the yards hot streak, their form may not matter as much!
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As always, good luck with your bets.
Josh
17 Responses
Hello josh, another very good article rural celebration did give us a good run for our money , pearl acclaim very disappointing like you say wait for good to firm going and hopefully a drop in weight.
Hi Josh, I may have miss read it but I thought Martlet was a qualifier on the August trainers method yesterday?
Hi David, he was on the all-weather and Johnny G is only Flat Turf…his figures for AW respectable..5/23, but +0.75 points since 2010 to SP and AE 0.9, performing below market exp. (over bet compared to turf runners) Now, if you take early prices that would improve, but I like the foundation stats so to speak to be a bit stronger, but we are talking small samples of course. He was a ‘qualifier’ for my 90 day trainers mind. Good stuff if you backed him, easiest winner of the day.
hi, i backed marlet as gosden was 7/14 with 3yos plus at the track,,, now 8/15 impressive s.r.
it won so easy it could have gone round again..
spotted one of gosdens for the weekend hcap plot,,, timba,,,
Great 11/1 Chelmsford
Great stuff with Martlet. I’d set gosdens 90 day runners to start in august after checking out the stats, so was the first bet i placed on your system Josh also was my only bet yesterday!
Well done James and a perfect example of why I send out those reports/angles etc. And great that you have improved on it, and that you missed yesterday blog carnage 🙂
Since Monday 13th …been pretty average have to say ….about level and that is if hitting every top price …and this is peak season ..can only get better I hope
Of July? Have you been reading a different blog Harry? I have just been through every official tip (indicated when I advise a staking amount, ie 1 point win) since Monday 13th and the blog is +19.75 points up to advised prices. Those prices are always available with at least 2 bookmakers and if you dont have multiple accounts and dont get the best price using oddschecker then you will struggle to come out in front. Tip of the Day is +9 points since then (was+1 point on Mon 13th, and is now +10 after a mini losing run) Goodwood was +9 points, +4.75 from another race preview plus a few losers thrown in.
I am happy enough with that. If you are counting every horse I have ever mentioned in every post then I would need to take a loan out I think.
You conveniently (or that is when you started reading the blog) ignored the 25/1 winner on the 11th July, in the Bunbury Cup, another 15.5 points to add in.
The blog is +73 points since November, as detailed in a blog post a few days ago, with all bets detailed. I am a value hunter, or try to be, and try to operate between 20-25% win strike rate – that means lots of loser and long losing runs, but i am more interested in profit. My bank account says I am over £1400 up since November betting £20 a point on the selections I have put up on the blog.
I am not sure how you are evens, that is confusing unless I am being stupid and have missed something.
Tip of The Day is a trial and something new I am doing. As such caution advised. But the blog is more than me giving you horses to back. I try and provide information to add value to your own approach to betting, and that you can use to help find your own winners. I am not sure what you look for in a free blog, but you clearly have high standards. Not many I have seen are as open about publishing results etc.
Anyway, apologies for the blunt tone, you have caught me during a mini slump of losers which never helps my mood.
Josh
p.s and thanks for reading and commenting 🙂
Hi Josh,
I’ve not commented for a while but have been reading the blog about 3/4 times a week. I generally pick my own bets but read blogs and other racing news websites. Of the horses that you have tipped/mentioned that I have followed I am 5.5pts up for July. With regards to Harry’s comments I can see where you are coming from but I can also sympathise with Harry to a degree. I commented on your blog previously stating that I could not follow you all the time or subscribe to any tipping due to the amount of horse/stats/systems/tweets etc. I realise that you don’t intend readers to back everything but when following someone you want the success that they have and some readers will presume that you are backing everything you mention. So Harry’s evens to your £1400 up may seem a massive gap but if he’s backing a few losers that your not and is staking different amounts even if he’s backed all the winners you mention the disparity would easily happen. The only solutions are to publish every bet you make, not to mention the horses you aren’t backing inc stat/system horses or to clearly inform readers that you don’t back everything you mention and that if they do they may get a different financial result to your good self.
I can understand how annoying it can be when you are providing quality information gratis but as I said people are generally followers and if you type they will back it for fear of missing a winner. Good luck for August another 5.5pts will do me nicely
Hi Jim…
firstly that over £1400 up is just since November, not since 13th July! (simply the points profit of the blog x my £20 unit stakes) My point, which I have made a few times, is that if I am ‘tipping something’ it gets a unit stake next to it, ie 1 point win, 1 point EW etc. Those are the tips that go down in the official records of blog profits, which are open and transparent. Readers can look at those results over time and decide how they play them, if at all. The point of long explanations, written pieces etc, is to explain my thinking, so that again punters can decide.
If people want tips and just to follow me blind, they bet on all selections I put up with a staking unit. That is quite straight forward. All tips etc are up by 10am, sometimes later at weekends (but always a post by 10am explaining if a tip on its way) and then sometimes I email out on occasion.
I am glad you backed Windy City, at a tasty 8/1 too, which kind of proves my point 🙂 You read that, knew the research behind that system, read my thoughts, and my doubts, and made your own mind up. Of course, that would have been a great Tip of The Day, but that is hindsight.
What people back is up to them at the end of the day, and I try and provide enough info for readers to make up their own mind, or just to back my selections blind.
I would prefer an engaged readership (who can disagree with me/share thoughts) – and I dare say those just looking for tips soon stop reading when I hit the inevitable losing run and move on to the next one.
Sorry I disagree with you Jim people are not sheep josh is just giving information stats etc surely the people who read these articles can make there own mind up if they want to back everything josh mentions or not, in my opinion for what it’s worth hopefully josh continues to write and give his analysis on horses and trainers etc as he been doing.
Yes Steve I hope josh keeps pointing us in the right direction too. However most people looking at a racing blogs are looking for tips and too much info/stats/tips/mentions can lead to confusion and even anger if a one readers is losing whilst another is benefiting (less can mean more as I often tell my wife). Windy citi has Just won which I had picked and Josh’s comments gave me more confidence so I had a bet (thanks Josh; ) ) however some readers won’t have backed it and some will as most, not all people are sheep esp if winners are flowing. Good luck with your picks.
If you read the the blog properly it’s not confusing.
Been doing your bets since 27th ..didn’t manage to get Tropics as only use two accounts …think your up about 3 and a half points since the 13th if not counting tropics .. most people don’t have numorous accounts or indeed achieve top prices on all bets ..
I can email you the list of bets if needed, Tropics was only 2.5 points to that total, (actually 11 points at Goodwood – you miss Mount Logan at 9/1? – 8/1 SP) Tip of The Day won 9 points since 13th. You must have just missed a few, sorry about that. As I said, the main tips so to speak have an advised staking amount next to them, and you need to check the blog daily, with posts up by 10am. If you are talking about solely what I have emailed out, you may be right. But i dont email every time i ‘tip’. There was also Tanzeel at 7/1 in that time.
In my opinion there is no excuse for not having numerous accounts, at least with Bet365,PP, BetV, SkyBet, William H, Ladbrookes, Coral, Betfair, Betfred. Why would you take 8/1 when you could get 12s for example. That makes no sense. But, maybe we agree to disagree on that point.
I try and always record bets to a widely available price at the time for positing, and they rarely just vanish.
For what it’s worth guys, I’ve placed all Josh’s official bets (Tip Of The Day) since 13th July. Being a seeker of value, I managed to get the best odds going for most of the bets. I am in profit by up by just shy of 10 points for July and just half a point for August so far, courtesy of Shore Step placing on Saturday. Not too shabby at all. I’m inclined to say that Josh has got it about right. He’s certainly provides more information on his research that pretty much anyone else I’ve seen and like he has clearly pointed out, he provides the info – you do what you like with it.
As for being confusing, As far as I can tell the Tip Of The Day is the one that he puts in a bold green font. That’s surely straightforward? Keep doing things as you always did Josh. We think you are the bees’ knees!
On a slightly different note, I wholeheartedly agree with Josh about opening multiple bookie accounts. (Make sure that you take advantage of whatever sign-up bonuses they are offering.) Spread your bets out between bookies. If your are seen making money, there will come a time when your accounts will be gubbed, suspended or closed. I speak from experience!